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Showing posts with label Global Trade and Investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Global Trade and Investment. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

Budget that braces for tough times


Broad measures spelt out under Budget 2020 will likely sustain the economy, if there is no further escalation in trade fights.

A glimmer of hope emerged after the US outlined the first phase of a deal to settle some issues related to trade, but there is a lingering suspicion that China could be just buying time as it will most likely not concede to any loss of sovereignty.

China is developing its own ecosystem that could be “outside the reach” of the US, and it is possible that the time bought with such rearguard actions may allow China to achieve its aims.

Malaysia, a trade dependent economy, can only hope that it all works out well, if it can integrate into both ecosystems, said Inter-Pacific Securities head of research Pong Teng Siew.

More stimulus measures would be undertaken should the global economy worsen and in the worst case scenario, Malaysia would have room to spend more if it increases the budget deficit, currently at 3.2% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

The worry is that a further deterioration in global trade tensions may push the global economy into recession. If that does not happen, these Budget 2020 measures should be able to sustain the economy, according to RHB Research Institute chief Asean economist Peck Boon Soon.

Given the external headwinds that continue to pose more downside risks, it looks like Budget 2020, which attempts to spread out its positive effects, has been designed to brace for rough times.

Some positive impetus could be derived from measures to support tourism, construction and infrastructure, as well as small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs), said AmBank Research head Anthony Dass.

Tourism-related businesses such as food and beverage, accommodation, travel and transport, shopping and entertainment will likely benefit.

Recognising the importance of SMEs in driving growth, a string of measures to facilitate their financing needs, ease of doing business, faster adoption of high technology and green initiatives, should also bode well.

The bottomline is that resources are limited while the government still aims for fiscal consolidation and repayment of all debts.

Spreading out these scarce resources will probably succeed in paring off any broad-based slowdown, but it will be hard to make a dent when the sense of a loss in economic momentum is gradually settling in, said Pong.

More measures are required to stimulate the economy but in view of the gloomy global outlook and domestic issues, it is still overall, a good budget.

However, the allocation between capital and operating expenditure is still imbalanced; there is too little capital expenditure and there appears to be ‘little effort’ to reduce operating expenditure.

This will have a long term effect, especially in an aging society, according to Areca Capital CEO Danny Wong. In view of concerns over the lack of investments and falling revenue, efforts to boost foreign direct investments and tourism are welcome but more robust steps are required.

A correction in property prices may be a remedy for the overhang and inaffordability issues especially among young people.

The budget tries to forestall a price pullback, which would affect developers stuck with high land prices, by allowing foreigners to fill the demand gap.

But demand has evaporated, partly caused by the migration of mid-level talent and delays in household formation, the driver of long term demand and new home construction. Developers, lulled by the padding of demand through low interest rates for borrowers, high financing margins and easy access to debts, find it hard to lower prices.

They had thought the elevated level of demand was sustainable but it was not. Reduced prices may mean less profits but possibly a lifeline by way of cashflows, and may help restore delays in household formation and loss of talent, said Pong.

A worrying trend is that more and more young Malaysians are moving out of the country in search of jobs.Even mid-level expertise and talent is migrating; previously, it was mostly those who were highly mobile internationally.

A major cause is the lack of growth in real purchasing power.

Is the projected GDP growth of 4.8% achievable?

With the government continuing its spending and development initiatives, growth should remain robust, supported by services and construction, higher production from agriculture and mining. But manufacturing is expected to moderate.

Malaysia can achieve its 4.8% growth target, said Hong Leong Bank chief operating operating officer, global markets, Hor Kwok Wai.

However, in view of slower world GDP growth of 2.8%, AmBank Research expects growth of 4.0% with an upside of 4.3% for Malaysia.

Coming up with a further set of stimulus, should things worsen, may be a challenge.

Columnist Yap Leng Kuen is watchful of the tech war. The views expressed are the writer’s own.

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Viewing trade talks progress with rationality, calmness

Ending the trade war benefits whole world

Both China and the US still have resources to sustain a trade war, but further consumption of those resources is unnecessary since their goals have proved naive and absurd. The situation is still highly uncertain, but the historical indicators will gradually be corrected. China and the US will not get lost and the world will benefit from the implementation of the consensus reached by the two heads of state, assuming the responsibility to both countries and the world and moving steadily towards the final end of the trade war in stages.


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Wednesday, September 4, 2019

China challenges U.S. tariffs, lodging case at WTO

A World Trade Organization (WTO) logo is pictured on their headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, June 3, 2016. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse


https://youtu.be/9AsQh_RwRm0


China files WTO lawsuit against US tariffs on $300 billion Chinese goods

China filed a lawsuit under the WTO dispute settlement mechanism on the US' 15 percent tariffs on $300 billion Chinese goods, the first batch of which started on September 1, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced on Monday.

https://youtu.be/rrNlDVFWKF0


New China-U.S. tit-for-tat tariffs go into effect
https://youtu.be/M6-CGXN9sBs

https://youtu.be/yIRTNxKN64o

Costco's opening in China defies US attempts at decoupling

China will not proactively escalate the trade war, and will not discriminate against US companies that invest in China due to the trade war. As the trade war is messing up the world, China is bound to be stronger.
https://youtu.be/yjzsDNMEe1U

 China wants a deal, but won't stand down against new tariffs

https://youtu.be/5ljbYOInolc

Why China Holds a Trade War Edge Over U.S.

https://youtu.be/RL-HqSrdJm4

'We're clearly heading toward a recession,' says strategist

https://youtu.be/ZbknzF8_0os

Trump's Incompetence and Corruption on Display 

https://youtu.be/voYuH5eGlkk

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Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Huawei’s HongMeng OS 60% faster than Android !

Huawei’s Hongmeng will be 60% Faster than Android

Huawei OS: A secret OS history, development and future

https://youtu.be/i3kl47rknYQ

Finally!!!!! Huawei make come back

https://youtu.be/gmntYOHr4mE

https://youtu.be/lOdrpPfdT9s

https://youtu.be/b_LUXZrImFE Huawei OS: A secret OS history, development and future https://youtu.be/i3kl47rknYQ
Huawei is fighting back with the US by introducing their new Operating System Hongmeng which is 60 % faster than Android. Which will release in 2020.

According to Huawei, they had been working on their own OS for the last seven years and further said that the production of the new operating system is far more than ready.

Google has currently lifted the ban on Huawei for 90 days, meaning the current Huawei customers will continue to get updates for the next 90 days, including their Android app and all.


As CTO of Huawei confirms that their OS will be able to run the android apps, this will be the biggest setback for Android. And to achieve that cause, Huawei is in talks with Apptoide which is a standalone alternative for Google play.There are some rumors which are suggesting that not just Android but this new OS will be able to run iOS applications too.

So will Hongmen be really better than Android? We’re still unsure as we didn’t get any UI/UX of their new OS so right now it is not the perfect time to comment on this situation. But after listening to a number of conferences done by Huawei, we’re sure that this new Operating System Hongmeng is indeed that can shake the foundations of Android, and Android may suffer a lot.

But, this is clear that Android will put up a great trouble to come ahead of this Hongmeng. This is surely going to be one hell of a rift between Huawei and Android to get the market lead. If Huawei succeeds in making their new OS better and more reliable than android than the world will soon see a revolution in the field of technology and innovation.


Huawei’s Android replacement is not, apparently, ready to be launched.

After reporting that Huawei was preparing their own new operating system for a possible launch, Huawei has told TechRadar that its home-grown Operating System will not be rolled out next month. Instead, the company plans for the OS to be ready in China later this year, with an international launch in 2020 with a few modifications in it.

Like most manufacturers, Huawei relies on Google’s Android to power its Huawei phones. Earlier this month, Google announced that it would no longer grant an Android license to the Chinese company by following a White House executive order that effectively blocked the company in the US.

The company has been working on its own Operating System since 2012, a report from CNET sister site TechRepublic revealed in 2018.

“Huawei knew this was coming and they were preparing. The OS was ready in January 2018 and this was our ‘Plan B’,” Alaa Elshimy, managing director and vice president of Huawei, told TechRadar.

“We did not want to bring the OS to the market as we had a strong relationship with Google and others and did not want to ruin the relationship.”

According to the report, existing Android applications will work with the new OS, which could mean it is based on the open-source version of Android. Huawei has its own app store on Android, called Huawei AppGallery, which could host the new apps of future world.

Huawei phones in China do not use Google service so there’s a high chance of adoption of its own Hongmeng OS. But how does Huawei plan to deal with not being able to use popular applications like YouTube, Maps, Gmail, etc. on its Hongmeng OS outside China? Will the company develop competing apps for its Operating System or has Huawei done that already?

So many questions are asked now-a-days. But I guess we may never find out until Huawei unveils the supposed “Hongmeng” operating system expected to substitute Android on its own powered devices.

Huawei’s decision to sue the US government comes as they face increasing rift from the US and its allies over the security of its telecoms network equipment. The Shenzhen-based firm has been banned in the US from supplying to federal agencies under the country’s National Defence Authorization Act.

“The US government has long branded Huawei as a threat. It has hacked our servers and stolen emails and source code,” said Guo. “Despite this, the US government has never provided any particular evidence supporting the accusations that Huawei poses a cybersecurity threat. Still, the United States government is sparing no effort to smear the company and mislead the public about Huawei .” May be the reason behind this could be an expected defeat from Huawei in the race of becoming the king of IT world.

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Read More :


Huawei's HongMeng OS 60% faster than Android: reports

China's Huawei is reportedly intensively testing its proprietary operating system (OS) HongMeng with internet giants and domestic smartphone vendors, and the new system will be launched in the next few months.

 Halting tech exchanges will harm US more


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Tuesday, May 14, 2019

China hits back at US tariffs

https://youtu.be/J1PJikKXp84

https://youtu.be/UMBt-_73mts

https://youtu.be/579PbrByy_U

https://youtu.be/2lg3LQUhCRs

https://youtu.be/QqCHGBDPhP0

Photo:VCG

Duties show Beijing unfazed by Washington’s pressure

China on Monday struck back at US tariffs on Chinese goods, announcing duties of between 5 percent to 25 percent on more than 5,100 products from the US worth tens of billions of dollars.

The measured but firm response from Chinese officials highlighted China's defiance toward maximum pressure from US officials amid a fresh escalation in the trade war, while also seeking to avoid a full-fledged trade war with the US, analysts said.

China will impose an additional tariff of 25 percent on 2,493 items such as liquefied natural gas and 20 percent on 1,078 items, including fruits and chemicals, starting June 1, the Customs Tariff Commission under the State Council, China's cabinet, said in a statement Monday night.

China will also impose an additional tariff of 10 percent on 974 items, such as vegetables and seafood, and 5 percent on 595 items, including smaller planes, according to the statement. In total, the tariffs cover 5,140 US products worth $60 billion.

The statement said that China's measures were in response to the US' decision to raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods.

"The aforementioned US action has led to an escalation in China-US trade frictions and is against a consensus reached by the two sides to address trade differences through consultations," it said, adding it hurts both sides' interests.

Following China's tariffs, US stocks tumbled on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 2.17 percent shortly after market opening. Shares of major US companies which rely on Chinese markets also nosedived, with machinery maker Caterpillar stocks down 4.54 percent and aircraftmaker Boeing shares down 3.38 percent.

Firm response

"I think the response is firm but measured," said Huo Jianguo, vice chairman of the China Society for World Trade Organization Studies in Beijing, pointing out that the measures were specifically aimed at responding to the US action.

The US on Friday raised duties on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25 percent from the 10 percent imposed since September 2018, to which China responded with tariffs on $60 billion in US goods.

"While the Chinese tariffs cover less US products than the US tariffs do on Chinese goods, it is sufficient to show that China is not going to back down from pressure," Huo said.

China's response comes about an hour after US President Donald Trump warned China against retaliating on Monday. "China should not retaliate - will only get worse!" Trump tweeted, while repeating false accusations against China.

The Chinese tariffs also followed fresh threats from US officials to impose tariffs on $325 billion in Chinese goods with details expected to be announced on Monday US time.

"Since the US has resumed the trade war, we should hit back hard… to show the Americans that they will not gain anything from their tough approach," He Weiwen, a former senior Chinese trade official, told the Global Times. "But we should also not close the door to talks."

Door open

Though China was forced to impose the tariffs, it also did so in a way that avoided a further escalation and left room for negotiations, said Song Guoyou, director of Fudan University's Center for Economic Diplomacy.

"The country still left some room in the hope that bilateral trade tensions would not further escalate, and that there would be possible future talks with the US," Song said.

Chinese and US officials concluded the 11th round of negotiations in Washington on Friday without reaching any deal. There were no plans for future talks as of press time on Monday.

But in light of the drastic turn of events in the trade talks, China has prepared for all scenarios, officials and analysts said.

"The Chinese side will never succumb to external pressure and we have the resolve and ability to safeguard our legitimate rights and interests," Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, told a routine press briefing on Monday.

"Again, we hope the US side could work with China and meet China halfway to address each other's reasonable concerns based on mutual respect and equal terms," he said.

But if the US wants to further escalate the trade war, China will respond in kind and there are many other tools it could take to inflict pain on the US economy, including targeting US financial markets, analyst noted.

Stay focused

However, while fighting back is necessary, it is also equally important for China not to lose focus in carrying out stated reform and opening-up efforts aimed at ensuring long-term growth for the Chinese economy, analysts said.

"We need to commit to our policies because we must keep things at home in good shape. That goes without saying," Huo said, noting that China should continue its reform and opening-up efforts.

Continuing reform and opening-up measures will not only help cope with pressure from the US, but could also ensure long-term growth for the Chinese economy, analysts said.

In the short term, though, China needs to properly evaluate the potential damage of the trade war on Chinese companies and workers and take necessary measures to help them weather the impact.

Yu Yongding, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that given China's deep role in the global value chain, it is hard to evaluate the impact on the Chinese economy, but China needs to prepare for the worst.

"In any case, the Chinese economy will be able to withstand the impact, and China's monetary and fiscal policies still have room," he said at a seminar in Beijing on Saturday.

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World markets plunged further on Tuesday following heavy losses on Wall Street after China delivered a swift rebuff to Donald Trump by imposing retaliatory tariffs on $60bn of US imports. Beijing ignored warnings from Trump about the dangers of escalating the trade conflict and ..


Tall tales won't help US win trade war

The Chinese side is obviously more realistic while the US is falsifying. This will, to a large extent, influence how the two countries digest the trade war impacts.
Source: Global Times

US' maximum pressure policy is useless

China's stance is clear-cut. It is willing to reach a deal but will never make concessions on issues of principle, nor trade its core interests. In contrast, the US' attitude is swaying. Driven by unrealistic anticipation, it has drifted between expressing optimism that exceeds the actual situation and arbitrarily waving the tariff stick. China has clarified its stance and will try to push the situation in a good direction. If the US is to play a roller coaster-style thriller game, it will bear the consequences.
Source: Global Times

US companies set to pay price of trade row with China

US-based software company Oracle attracted a lot of attention in recent days after firing hundreds of employees, mainly engineers, from its China team.
Source: Global Times



Tall tales won't help US win trade war

The Chinese side is obviously more realistic while the US is falsifying. This will, to a large extent, influence how the two countries digest the trade war impacts.

US lacks clear consensus on China policy


The fundamental strategic cooperation (global security and peace, regional hotspot issues, energy, climate change, etc.) between China and the US, the two most powerful nations in history, cannot be ignored. Therefore, the failure of China-US relations is an unbearable disaster for both countries and the world.

China's retaliation measures 'rational'


China's latest countermeasures against US tariff hikes demonstrated its “rational” attitude toward the ongoing trade war as the retaliation left room for further negotiations while also easing pressure on domestic companies, experts said on Tuesday.


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Thursday, May 9, 2019

China won’t flinch in face of tough-talking US

https://youtu.be/LaBEvT4O634
https://youtu.be/qW6ocYsE2F8

The US will raise tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports effective Friday, according to a notice posted to the Federal Register.

The announcement was made at 8:45 pm on May 8 (Beijing time). At 11:23 pm, the Chinese Minister of Commerce said that China will have to take necessary countermeasures if the US goes ahead with its plan to increase tariffs on Chinese imports. Although China's announcement was made in a calm and peaceful manner, it has shown the country's unswerving resolution to defend its own interests.

Washington has lit the fuse on escalating China-US trade tensions. Beijing had announced it would send a delegation for the May 9 consultations before Washington's May 8 announcement. At this critical time, Washington's imprudent move is clearly an extreme means of sending an alarming message to China. Washington must have expected the Chinese delegation would rush to the US and seize every opportunity to reverse the situation. Instead, the Chinese delegation decided to fly to the US one day later than originally planned. This is the way Chinese express their will and determination.

The 11th round of China-US trade talks in Washington on May 9 looks like a "Banquet at Hongmen." On the one hand, Washington is lighting a fuse on escalating trade tensions; and on the other they still want to continue negotiating with the Chinese delegation. By doing so, they have set a new precedent in the history of trade talks.

Many people may ask: Under such circumstances, why is Beijing still sending the delegation to Washington? In fact, it's really Washington that should be answering the question: Under such circumstances, why is the Chinese delegation invited to Washington for more trade talks?

The answer is simple. Both China and the US want to finalize a trade deal. Obviously, there are some issues that are difficult to overcome for both sides. It seems that both are now mentally prepared for a transition from truce talks to the mode of "fighting and talking" at the same time.

It is a great pity that after meeting halfway on most of their differences, China and the US have not been able to reach consensus on the last few core issues. Those issues are not supposed to come up as they specifically reflect the unreasonable demands by the US. Their emergence is rooted in the misguided perception that the US is privileged by its strength. That misconception has also motivated the latest unexpected tariff rise announced by Washington.

China has turned down the US demands at the final stage of negotiation. It was not only encouraged by its strength, but also motivated by its belief in the principle of equality. China is not afraid of conflict with the US at the last moment. In the face of the "big stick" of the US tariff threats, China has once again demonstrated its confidence in coping with an escalated trade war.

Since neither side has given up on the idea of making a deal, and it is the ultimate goal of both countries, the latest round of China-US trade talks is expected to be conducted in a climate of uncertainty, including that of a looming escalated trade war. Such a scenario has rarely been seen in the history of trade talks.

Will the US hit the brakes on the trade war at the last minute? Chinese want to know the answer to that question, but Americans are more concerned. Washington has found itself caught in a dilemma between its ambition to gain the upper hand in trade over China and its desire to minimize any negative impacts on its stock market. Beijing is serious about both trade talks and trade wars. Now, it is fully ready to switch to the mode of "fighting and talking."

China is well prepared for an escalation in trade tensions. A variety of plans are in place, such as countermeasures for any tariff rise, and favorable policies to minimize losses for Chinese enterprises. Mentally and materially, China is much better prepared than its US counterpart.

In the face of the imminent, unique "Banquet at Hongmen," Chinese have full confidence in their delegation. Members of the Chinese delegation not only have the experience and wisdom to cope with the situation, but they also have the firm support and trust of the entire Chinese society.

Undoubtedly, the delegation will bring both the strong will and goodwill of the Chinese government and people to Washington at this critical juncture.

If there is a new round of tariff conflicts, it would be a repeat, or an enhanced version of what happened in the past. It would definitely incur losses for China and the US, losses that are both direct and indirect, explicit and implicit. Anyway, the total scale of losses on both sides would be roughly the same. If Washington has its mind set on going back down the path of a trade war, then China will fight it to the end. China has always had a firm stand on a trade war: China does not want it; China is not afraid of it; China will launch it when necessary.

Seeking fairness and justice on the global stage sometimes requires a huge price. It also can be costly for different parties to reach consensus. In the past year, China and the US have been locked in a trade war and have had 10 rounds of trade talks. However, the two sides have failed to meet each other halfway to make a deal. Many are wondering how much it will cost the two countries before a final agreement is made. If the latest round of talks in Washington fails to solve the puzzle, then the two countries will have to keep searching for the answer in the future.- Global Times

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US President Donald Trump's threat of increased tariffs on Chinese goods has added more uncertainty to trade talks with China. Some observers are worried that a tough stance may be ...
Source: Global Times | 2019/5/8 20:38:40

 

China holds winning card in trade conflict with the US

Stocks in the Chinese mainland recovered from a deep plunge triggered by concerns about an escalating trade battle with the US on Monday, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gaining

China ready for prolonged US trade war

After US officials threatened to escalate its trade war with China, rattling global financial markets and angering some US businesses, there is a distinctive, palpable level of calmness in China. Many in the foreign press gushed about how calm China was over the latest threats from US officials..


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Sunday, March 24, 2019

Apple CEO Tim Cook grateful for China's opening policy, calls for more global trade with China, he’s bullish on global economy

https://youtu.be/ROkQ0yZl89c

Apple CEO Tim Cook calls for more global trade with China in rare public speech.
 
https://youtu.be/VYTd-ctTx9o

Key Points

In a speech at an economic forum in Beijing, Cook said Apple is less concerned with the short-term economic outlook because the tech giant makes investments looking ahead years or decades.

His remarks come as China and the U.S. prepare to meet again to resolve their trade dispute, which has roiled global markets, and as Apple is expected to announce that it is launching a video service.

Apple CEO Tim Cook said Saturday that he is “extremely bullish” about the global economy based on the amount of innovation underway, and urged China to continue to “open up” amid complaints from the U.S. and others that it is shutting foreign firms out of key high-tech industries.

In a speech at an economic forum in Beijing, Cook said Apple is less concerned with the short-term economic outlook because the tech giant makes investments looking ahead years or decades.

“In the long term, I’m extremely bullish. I think the key to the economy, unlocking its potential has always been innovation, and when I travel around the world, I’ve never seen innovation at a more feverish pace than I do today, so I’m extremely optimistic,” Cook told participants at the China Development Forum, a gathering of business leaders in Beijing.

His remarks come as China and the U.S. prepare to meet again to resolve their trade dispute, which has roiled global markets, and as Apple is expected to announce that it is launching a video service

The iPhone has long been Apple’s marquee product and main money maker, but sales are starting to decline. The company is pushing digital subscriptions as it searches for new growth.

Apple is one of many American companies now grappling with increasing Chinese consumer anxiety. China is a major market for Apple and other smartphone makers, accounting for one-third of the industry’s global handset shipments.

In other comments, Cook said the world was “facing greater challenges than ever before.”

“Climate change is threatening our planet, poverty and inequality hold citizens and nations back from their potential, basic health care remains out of reach for millions,” he said.

“At the same time ... we can have a healthy planet and a thriving economy. We can continue to lift millions of people out of poverty, and we can give everyone a chance to learn and thrive. To fulfill this potential, we must all work hand in hand, government, academic institutions and businesses like Apple,” Cook said.- CNBC


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China Development Forum 2019 held in Beijing - Global Times

  

Apple's Cook confident of China's huge market ...

 

 

 Italy joining BRI paves the road to closer EU-China relationship


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Engineering school in Shanghai becomes China's first 5G university

Quiet lawns and playgrounds, students riding bicycles... it seemed to be an ordinary campus scene at the Shanghai University of Engineering Science on Thursday morning, but changes were taking place invisibly because of 5G.

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

China-US trade truce set to benefit world

Illustration: Peter C. Espina/GT
https://youtu.be/6g_SpU3c5rU

Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump's meeting in Argentina on Saturday yielded results that boosted the confidence of both countries and the world. The US agreed to hold off on raising tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25 percent and the two countries decided to start a new round of negotiations in the next three months. The meeting has prevented bilateral relations from going into a nosedive, showing how rewarding diplomacy between heads of state can be.

The meeting lasted an hour longer than expected, created a cordial atmosphere for talks and ended with a spontaneous group photo. A White House statement released on Saturday said the meeting was "highly successful."

These details are very indicative. After US Vice President Mike Pence delivered a stinging speech on its China policy at the Hudson Institute in the beginning of October, many worried that a new Cold War between the two countries was looming. But now, the Xi-Trump meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit has shown that Beijing and Washington have the wisdom and ability to avoid the shadow of the Cold War shroud the world once again.

The compromise between China and the US is a wise decision to deal with their respective domestic challenges. The intensified trade war in the past few months upset farmers, enterprises and financial institutions of both countries. US farmers planted 89.1 million acres of soybeans this year, some were reportedly letting their crops rot as they were unable to sell them to their biggest buyer and the storage costs rose amid the trade conflict with China.

In addition, US companies involved in the international economy are suffering because of a worsening global economic environment. Although the US economy has maintained relatively rapid growth thanks to tax cuts and increased federal expenditure, the economies of Europe, China and Japan have all contracted.

Just as IMF Chief Christine Lagarde recently warned, the headwinds of trade friction, notably between China and the US, "could have slowed momentum even more than we had expected." She also said that if Trump follows through on this threat to impose steep tariffs on auto imports, it would result in retaliation from trading partners on US exports and could cut a large chunk out of the world economy.

An escalation in trade disputes worldwide will inevitably bring more pressure on both Chinese and American companies. According to a statement by the WTO on November 22, countries belonging to the G20 group of the world's biggest economies applied 40 new trade restrictive measures between mid-May and mid-October, covering around $481 billion of trade. Trimming its outlook for the global economy, the OECD calculated that a full-blown trade war and the resulting economic uncertainty could knock as much as 0.8 percent off global gross domestic product by 2021.

In this context, the efforts made by China and the US in Argentina to ease trade tensions are valuable to save the global economy. How to take the next step is of course full of challenges. Reaching an agreement on a number of sensitive issues within the next three months will be a big test for both countries.

The Trump government should not overestimate its bargaining chips. It should review the fundamental role healthy and balanced globalization can play in helping the US economy maintain sustainable growth. Trump recently asked General Motors to stop making cars in China and open a new plant in Ohio. As General Motors is highly dependent on the Chinese market, such requirements appear to run counter to common sense and reason.

Besides, the Trump government threatened to impose export controls on new technologies like robotics, hoping to weaken China's position in the global supply chain and win an upper hand in technological competition with China. Such an approach has been opposed by sane minds in Silicon Valley who argue that it will only benefit companies in Europe and Japan.

China needs to accelerate the implementation of the new round of reform and opening-up policy in the following three months. The Chinese government in the past few months rolled out more policies to support private companies, which is necessary, but more importantly, it should hasten steps to establish a more mature market economy.

If China can reform its own development model based on its own plan under the pressure of a trade spat, it will be the biggest winner and the whole world will also benefit from it.

By Zhao Minghao Source:Global Times

The author is a senior research fellow with The Charhar Institute and an adjunct fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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Sunday, December 2, 2018

U.S., China agree trade war ceasefire after Trump, Xi summit

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BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - China and the United States agreed to a ceasefire in their bitter trade war on Saturday after high-stakes talks in Argentina between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, including no escalated tariffs on Jan. 1.

Trump will leave tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports at 10 percent at the beginning of the new year, agreeing to not raise them to 25 percent "at this time", the White House said in a statement.

"China will agree to purchase a not yet agreed upon, but very substantial, amount of agricultural, energy, industrial, and other product from the United States to reduce the trade imbalance between our two countries," it said.

"China has agreed to start purchasing agricultural product from our farmers immediately."

The two leaders also agreed to immediately start talks on structural changes with respect to forced technology transfers, intellectual property protection, non-tariff barriers, cyber intrusions and cyber theft, services and agriculture, the White House said.

Both countries agreed they will try to have this "transaction" completed within the next 90 days, but if this does not happen then the 10 percent tariffs will be raised to 25 percent, it added.

The Chinese government's top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, said the negotiations were conducted in a "friendly and candid atmosphere".

"The two presidents agreed that the two sides can and must get bilateral relations right," Wang told reporters, adding they agreed to further exchanges at appropriate times.

"Discussion on economic and trade issues was very positive and constructive. The two heads of state reached consensus to halt the mutual increase of new tariffs," Wang said.

"China is willing to increase imports in accordance with the needs of its domestic market and the people's needs, including marketable products from the United States, to gradually ease the imbalance in two-way trade."

"The two sides agreed to mutually open their markets, and as China advances a new round of reforms, the United States' legitimate concerns can be progressively resolved."

The two sides would "step up negotiations" towards full elimination of all additional tariffs, Wang said.

The announcements came after Trump and Xi sat down with their aides for a working dinner at the end of a two-day gathering of world leaders in Buenos Aires, their dispute having unnerved global financial markets and weighed on the world economy.

After the 2-1/2 hour meeting, White House chief economist Larry Kudlow told reporters the talks went "very well," but offered no specifics as he boarded Air Force One headed home to Washington with Trump.

China's goal was to persuade Trump to abandon plans to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25 percent in January, from 10 percent at present. Trump had threatened to do that, and possibly add tariffs on $267 billion of imports, if there was no progress in the talks.

With the United States and China clashing over commerce, financial markets will take their lead from the results of the talks, widely seen as the most important meeting of U.S. and Chinese leaders in years.

The encounter came shortly after the Group of 20 industrialized nations backed an overhaul of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which regulates international trade disputes, marking a victory for Trump, a sharp critic of the organisation. Trump told Xi at the start of their meeting he hoped they would achieve "something great" on trade for both countries. He struck a positive note as he sat across from Xi, despite the U.S. president's earlier threats to impose new tariffs on Chinese imports as early as the next year.

He suggested that the "incredible relationship" he and Xi had established would be "the very primary reason" they could make progress on trade.

Xi told Trump that only through cooperation could the United States and China serve the interest of peace and prosperity. Washington and Beijing have also increasingly been at odds over security in the Asia-Pacific region.

At the same time, Trump again raised with Xi his concern about the synthetic opioid fentanyl being sent from China to the United States, urging the Chinese leader to place it in a "restricted category" of drugs that would criminalize it.

The White House said Xi, "in a wonderful humanitarian gesture", had agreed to designate fentanyl a controlled substance.

Xi also said that he was open to approving the previously unapproved Qualcomm-NXP deal should it again be presented to him, the White House added.

"This was an amazing and productive meeting with unlimited possibilities for both the United States and China. It is my great honour to be working with President Xi," Trump said in the statement.

WTO REFORMS

Earlier on Saturday, the leaders of the world's top economies called for WTO reform in their final summit statement.

Officials expressed relief that agreement on the communique was reached after negotiators worked through the night to overcome differences over language on climate change.

The final text recognised trade as an important engine of global growth but made only a passing reference to "the current trade issues" after the U.S. delegation won a battle to keep any mention of protectionism out of the statement.

Trump has long railed against China's trade surplus with the United States, and Washington accuses Beijing of not playing fairly on trade. China calls the United States protectionist and has resisted what it views as attempts to intimidate it.

The two countries are also at odds over China's extensive claims in the South China Sea and U.S. warship movements through the highly sensitive Taiwan Strait.

In addition to tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the United States this year. Numerous countries have filed litigation at the WTO to contest the levies.

The United States is unhappy with what it says is the WTO's failure to hold China to account for not opening up its economy as envisioned when China joined the body in 2001. The European Union is also pushing for sweeping changes to how the WTO operates.

G20 delegates said negotiations on the summit statement proceeded more smoothly than at a meeting of Asia-Pacific leaders two weeks ago, where disagreement on protectionism and unfair trading practices prevented a consensus.

European officials said a reference to refugees and migration - a sensitive issue for Trump's administration - was excised to ensure consensus.

On climate change, the United States once again marked its differences with the rest of the G20 by reiterating in the statement its decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and its commitment to using all kinds of energy sources.

The other members of the group reaffirmed their commitment to implement the Paris deal and tackle climate change.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde said high levels of debt accumulated by emerging market nations was a pressing concern.

U.S. officials said a call by G20 leaders for the IMF and World Bank to improve monitoring debt levels was aimed at ensuring that developing economies did not become to heavily indebted to China in return for infrastructure projects.

U.S. officials have warned about China's increasing influence across swaths of the developing world, including Latin America. G20 summit host Argentina is expected to sign a series of deals with China on Sunday during a one-day state visit by Xi.

Apart from trade and climate change, Russia's seizure of Ukrainian vessels drew condemnation from other G20 members, while the presence of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the summit raised an awkward dilemma for leaders.

Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler arrived amid controversy over the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, though Saudi officials have said the prince had no prior knowledge of the murder.

The leader of the OPEC heavyweight had a series of bilateral meetings at the summit, including a closely watched encounter with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton, Michael Martina, Matt Spetalnick, Maximilian Heath, Scott Squires, Cassandra Garrison, Daniel Flynn and Kylie Maclellan in Buenos Aires; Dave Shepardson and Humeyra Pamuk in Washington, Ben Blanchard in Beijing and John Ruwitch in Shanghai; writing by Matt Spetalnick and Daniel Flynn; editing by Ross Colvin, Alistair Bell, Jonathan Oatis and Will Dunham)

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Trump-Xi Summit Exclusive News | Latest Updates on G20 | scmp.com‎


Peter Navarro, the controversial White House trade policy adviser and a famous China hawk, will not be on the guest list when US President Donald Trump meets his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires on December 1, according to a source with knowledge of the matter.

Trade cease-fire welcomed


Sino-US agreement an important step forward
In talks on Saturday at Buenos Aires in Argentina, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump reached an important consensus on stabilizing trade relations between China and the US. The two countries will step up negotiations toward elimination of all additional tariffs and address issues of mutual concern.

Trade cease-fire welcomed

BRICS slam protectionism as China-U.S. spat overshadows G20 talks

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