Although there's still uncertainty over prospects for peace on the Korean Peninsula, it seems that South Korea is highly optimistic about the economic aspect of its cooperation with North Korea.
North Korea has a population of about 25 million. The largest city, the capital of Pyongyang, has about 3.2 million people and other cities generally have populations of about 300,000. The country's per capita GDP is a mere $530.
By comparison, with a population of 51 million, South Korea boosts per capita GDP of more than $27,500. But South Korea's economic growth is believed to have peaked, and its export-oriented growth model has run into trade protectionism.
If the hypothesis of merging and unifying North and South Korea were true, South Korea's population would increase by 50 percent. In light of this, although North Korea's GDP is a negligible fraction of that of South Korea, there is a chance that South Korea could see a 50 percent rise in its GDP that now adds up to $1.4 trillion. With a GDP of more than $2.1 trillion, a unified Korea would have an economy half the size of Japan's, or larger than the economies of Brazil, Italy or Canada.
South Korea's economy is dominated by family-owned conglomerates known as chaebol, with the top 10 chaebol accounting for a hefty part of GDP. Economic growth is seen mainly benefitting big chaebol such as Samsung and Hyundai, which in theory would have the opportunity of maintaining a fairly high rate of wealth growth over the next 10 years.
An assessment of Asia's economic future based upon the hypothesis of Korean unification indicates that it would be hard for Japan, China and even the US to derive any meaningful economic benefit from such an outcome.
North Korea's abundant pool of cheap labor and its market eager to see wealth growth will mostly benefit South Korea. In the past, China used to host a certain number of North Korean workers, but that was during an era when North Korea was blockaded by the outside world and could only rely on China for foreign-currency earnings.
If Korean unification, or to be exact the two nations' economic unification, becomes a reality, the situation will change. In this case, China or Japan will be just onlookers.
China might even find itself challenged by a unified Korea with lower costs in the world market. Japan might fare slightly better, considering its technological advantages and traditional partnerships with South Korean business groups. The benefits the US would get from unification would be limited or nil, taking into account uncertainties about its geopolitical interests.
For the world economy with total GDP of more than $70 trillion, Korean unification is likely to boost global growth by 1 percent. But much is still uncertain if this scenario is to play out.
North and South Korea still face tough obstacles including ideology, capital, nuclear weapons and internal political stability on the path toward genuine unification. The outcome also depends particularly on US political moves. Nevertheless, amid uncertainties there seems to be one certainty: The only way to avoid risk is to have the foresight to make future-proof plans.
By Chen Gong Source:Global Time
The author is the chief research fellow with Beijing-based private strategic think tank Anbound. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn
Chinese President Xi Jinping met North Korean leader Kim
Jong-un in Beijing on Tuesday, and the two leaders discussed topics
including the US-North Korea summit in Singapore.
Source: Global Times | 2018/6/19 22:53:39
The South Korean Constitutional Court on Friday upheld the parliament's decision to impeach Park Geun-hye, making her the first democratically elected president in the country to be deposed. Park may also face criminal charges.
A few months back, when Park's close friend Choi Soon-sil was first exposed of wrongdoing, few people thought Park would be impeached. But as her misdeeds including her involvement in Choi's illegal profiteering and graft by herself were disclosed one by one, the true life of Park startled South Korea and the entire world.
The impeachment of Park has no direct connection with its diplomatic policies. However, if the leader of the opposition party is elected president later, South Korea may have a chance to shift diplomatic policies.
During the first half of Park's presidency, China-South Korea relations changed for the better, as Seoul maintained a balance between Beijing and Washington.
Despite South Korea being an ally of the US, its trade volume with China reached more than double that with the US.
There is a strong pro-US political faction in South Korea. Whenever South Korea's relations with North Korea become strained, they would try their best to push the country back to its old route of aligning with the US.
The leader of South Korea's biggest opposition party has been leading a popular poll as a presidential contender. He holds a negative attitude toward THAAD. South Korea may change its diplomacy if he wins the election, though the scale of change is still hard to predict.
South Korea appears to have completely overthrown Park, however, Park's policies, especially her signature work to deploy THAAD in South Korea, are still being 100 percent implemented by the caretaker government.
If Park is only a "princess" lacking the ability of judgment and easily being manipulated, then her presidential decisions should be thoroughly re-examined; if she was truly strategically visionary for the country, then her relationship with Choi would not be so scandalous.
We have to say that South Korean society's attitude toward Park is full of contradictions.
Attacking Park and in the meantime upholding her policy is not a reasonable behavior.
Park's decision to accept THAAD has pushed her country closer to the US, which is a serious geopolitical mistake.
It turned South Korea from as a country benefiting from its proximity to two big countries into a pawn of the US in Asia, making it a miniature Japan instead of an independent country. If South Korea doesn't correct its path, Park's legacy would still be in control of the country, as if she remains in the presidential hall.
Seoul shares fate with Pyongyang, not Washington
The South Korea-US Combined Forces Command kicked off their annual joint Key Resolve military exercise on Monday. The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier and F-35B stealth fighters will arrive in South Korean waters to conduct the exercise, which will simulate a preemptive strike against North Korea's nuclear and missile facilities when signs of attack are detected. The US military is also deploying a new-type of Gray Eagle drone in South Korea that is capable of striking North Korean targets.
The Yonhap news agency, citing government sources, reported that the drills will include missions that could penetrate Pyongyang and target war command and key military facilities. They send an explicit radical threat to Pyongyang.
To decapitate the North Korean leadership and to punish "the South's imperialist running dogs" with nuclear weapons are both the craziest threat Pyongyang and Seoul have sent to each other. They are equally hysterical, expressing both sides' viciousness to destroy the other.
The US-South Korean joint drills without doubt are a deterrent against North Korea. How can Pyongyang remain indifferent facing a military exercise that includes more than 300,000 military personnel to carry out missions targeting its war command and top leader? In such a case, by no means will both sides be in the mood for negotiations. Even if they sit down, they cannot establish a minimum degree of trust for talks.
By deterring North Korea, the US and South Korea are encouraging the country to take a firm grip on the nuclear capabilities it has acquired so far. They intend to scare Pyongyang, but the actual effect is the opposite. Instead, Pyongyang believes that nuclear weapons are the reason why Washington and Seoul dare not put their plan of subverting the North's regime into practice.
Through joint drills, more and more US strategic weapons are deployed on the Peninsula, posing a greater potential threat to China. Seoul may have more sense of security. But it disregards China's security concern, it may even feel schadenfreude. To the Chinese people, the South Korean government has lost its rationality on the security issue.
China has participated in the tough sanctions the US and South Korea launched against the North, while the two countries rejected China's proposal that the US and South Korea suspend their military exercises in exchange for a halt of North Korea's nuclear activities.
The US and South Korea often accuse China of being uncooperative, but the reality is they are uncooperative over China's mediation.
The US is here to stir up more trouble in Northeast Asia. By hitching itself to the US chariot, South Korea naively thinks it shares a common destiny with the US. However, if war breaks out, the battlefield is bound to be the Korean Peninsula while the US is on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. South Korea and North Korea are the two who really share a common destiny.
Put a break on Peninsula vicious cycle
US and South Korean diplomats gave a negative response to the proposal raised by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi Wednesday on the issue of the Korean Peninsula. During a press conference Wednesday on the sidelines of the ongoing annual sessions of the National People's Congress, Wang noted that Pyongyang, which is promoting its development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and Washington and Seoul, which are holding large-scale military exercises to pile increasing military pressure on North Korea, are like "two accelerating trains coming towards each other, with neither side willing to give way." Wang stressed that the priority for now is to "flash a red light and apply the brakes on both trains."
US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley responded Wednesday local time that the US must see "some sort of positive action" from North Korea before it could take Pyongyang seriously at the negotiation table. Cho Tae-yul, South Korea's UN ambassador was more direct, saying "This is not a time for us to talk about freezing or dialogue with North Korea."
However, those two diplomats' remarks do not mean that the appeal from Beijing only had a life that lasted several hours.
In fact, Wang's solution is the only way out to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue apart from the use of force. It won't be easy for all three sides, the US, South Korea and North Korea, to take a step back, but when warfare is so imminent, if they don't want to fight, they might eventually be forced to choose the path which China suggested.
Of course, if they are so determined to go to war, although China does not wish to see that, still, they are free to go ahead.
In the eyes of the Chinese people, the North Korean nuclear issue was not created by Pyongyang alone. The country's insistence on developing a nuclear program is without doubt a wrong path, yet Washington and Seoul are the main forces that have pushed North Korea to this path.
Now they want to stop Pyongyang from going ahead while refusing to reduce the impetus they are giving to North Korea. In the end, they failed to reach their goal and blame China for not being cooperative enough.
Wang's suggestion aims at stopping the vicious circle on the Peninsula through an abrupt brake.
It must be uncomfortable to do so, nevertheless, it can avoid the worst-case scenario. It is believed that even if Washington, Seoul and Pyongyang refuse to admit it ostensibly, they will consider the option raised by China to avoid war.
China has expressed its willingness to be a "railway switchman" over the Korean Peninsula issue, but what happens next depends on Pyongyang and Seoul, as well as on whether the new US President has the boldness to make a peaceful decision. If the two trains resolve to have a head-on collision, a switchman will be of no use even if he wants to help.
THAAD provides a reason for China to elevate nuclear prowess
According to reports from South Korea and the US Tuesday, the two countries have started deploying the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system in South Korea. Parts of the shield, including launch vehicles, have already arrived, and service personnel and other equipment will be put in place within two months.
It seems that Washington and Seoul are determined to accomplish the installation of THAAD before the coming South Korean presidential election.
In the end, China has not been able to prevent THAAD from being set up in South Korea, but this was predicted by most observers at the beginning. Therefore, Beijing should keep calm and adopt resolute and efficient measures to minimize its threat toward China. In the subsequent games, Beijing will step by step make South Korea feel the pain and make the US realize its mistake.
We should start from increasing sanctions toward Seoul in an orderly way, comprehensively lower the level of Sino-South Korean exchanges, roll back all the privileges that Seoul has gained from China, and just maintain a normal relationship between the two.
Over the past years, South Korean commodities and cultural products have been particularly popular among Chinese consumers given the close ties between Beijing and Seoul. But we can take the current opportunity to squeeze South Korean cultural products out of the Chinese market. This is the price the country must pay for the THAAD deployment.
China should also focus on military countermeasures and strategically deal with more threats. The deployment of THAAD in South Korea has two consequences - it directly threatens military activities within China, moreover, it sets a precedent that Washington can arbitrarily implement its anti-missile arrangements around China. Both will jeopardize China's security.
Can we neutralize THAAD technically? Research in this field must be enforced. If possible, Beijing must realize it at all costs. One thing is for sure, China's related strategic weapons must target South Korea's Seongju County, where THAAD will be installed.
We must prevent the US from setting up more THAAD batteries to China's southeast or redeploying tactical nuclear weapons on South Korean soil. All that cannot be achieved by simply sanctioning the Lotte Group. The THAAD deployment will become a turning point in the Northeast Asian paradigm. When we take one step forward, we must think two steps, three steps ahead.
The most essential task for China now is to boost its military power. The THAAD installation has offered China a crucial reason to increase and improve its tactical nuclear weapons. It would be worth it if Beijing can comprehensively elevate its strategic nuclear power because of THAAD.
The world has come to a crossroad where Washington is attempting to establish global military hegemony through its anti-missile system, while Beijing and Moscow are trying to smash that plan. This is the essence of the reality.
A divorcee who has been arrested as one of the suspects in the high-profile murder of North Korean exile Kim Jong-nam was able to speak Korean and had always wanted to go to North Korea.
Deadly ‘prank’: Siti Aisyah.
From the slums of Jakarta, the 25-year-old Siti Aisyah moved to the bright lights of Kuala Lumpur and has now become embroiled in a high-profile murder that gripped the world’s attention.
A man walks past a house (red color) where Indonesian woman Siti Aishah, a suspect in the murder of Kim Jong Nam, used to live in Tambora district in Jakarta, Indonesia. - AFP
She had told her friends and family in Indonesia that she had been invited to act in a movie.
“She said the shooting would take place in North Korea,” a friend of Siti Aisyah told Detik.com, an Indonesian portal.
However, she did not give family and friends the details.
“I don’t know the details, she just said it was for a DPR office (North Korea). We ordinary people just listened to what she was saying,” said the friend, identified only as AZ.
Siti Aisyah is one of the two women who allegedly attacked Jong-nam, the half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, with a deadly chemical.
Siti Aisyah worked as a guest relations officer (GRO) at a spa in Ampang although she told folks in Indonesia that she had a job “selling tickets”.
Her nightlife job was hidden from her family in Indonesia, where she has a seven-year-old son named Rio. Rio lives with her former in-laws.
But one thing that Siti Aisyah’s mother Benah did know was that her daughter could speak English and Korean.
“I never knew she worked in Malaysia,” said Benah, 50, who thought her daughter was selling clothes at a market in Batam after divorcing her husband, Gunawan Hasyin alias Ajun.
She said that the last time Siti Aisyah went back to her village in Serang, near Jakarta, was on Jan 21. Aisyah had been sending money to Benah.
“Usually it’s 500,000 rupiah (RM170). But not every month,” Benah told the news portal.
Siti Aisyah’s mother-in-law Lian Kiong or Akiong, 56, told Indonesian Foreign Ministry officials yesterday that she and her family had no relationship with her since she divorced her husband Gunawan Hasyim.
A sealed handwritten letter of the divorce note dated Feb 1, 2012 was presented to the Foreign Ministry yesterday.
Signed by Siti Aisyah and Gunawan, with her then employer Lian Kiong as witness, the letter said the couple had opted for a divorce as they no longer “had the compatibility and harmony of husband and wife”.
Lian Kiong said that following the divorce, Siti Aisyah hardly visited her in-laws in Tambora in West Jakarta, and only came around once a year to meet Rio.
“After the divorce, she never came around. The last time she came was on Jan 28.
“She came and stayed for the night. She spent the night with my grandson and left the next day,” Lian Kiong was quoted as saying.
She added that Siti Aisyah’s son had previously even refused to meet his mother because he knew she would leave eventually.
According to another Indonesian news portal Kumparan, based on identification records held by her village of birth in Angke, west Jakarta, she had two separate entries, complete with different photos.
In the first one, her name is spelt as “Siti Aisyah” with information saying she was born in Serang, Indonesia, on Feb 11, 1992. In the accompanying picture, her hair is tied in a ponytail.
In the second entry, her name was written as “Siti Aisah” and her date of birth is listed as Nov 1, 1989. In this picture, her hair is worn loose.
The ID (identification) numbers as well as her occupation on both entries differed.
As “Siti Aisyah”, she listed her occupation as entrepreneur; as “Siti Aisah”, she listed her occupation as housewife.
Kumparan quoted Angke village head Dwi Ariyono as saying he did not know why Siti Aisyah had two separate IDs.
Siti Aisyah was arrested at a hotel in Ampang on Thursday after she was identified on CCTV footage from KL International Airport 2 (KLIA2).
Among the items seized by police in the room included three US$100 notes.
She was the second suspect detained for allegedly murdering Jong-nam. The first suspect was a woman who held a Vietnamese passport, identifying her as Doan Thi Huong, 28.
Siti Aisyah’s boyfriend, Muhammad Farid Jalaluddin, 26, was also arrested on Wednesday.
Indonesian deputy ambassador to Malaysia Andreano Erwin said that the embassy in Kuala Lumpur had been unable to meet Siti Aisyah as of yesterday afternoon.
“We are still waiting for permission from the Malaysian authorities to see her,” he said.
North Korea to reject Jong-nam’s autopsy report, says envoy
Killer women recruited by a man three months ago
Deadly ‘prank’: Siti Aisyah in this file picture. — Detik.com >>
The two women suspected to have murdered North Korean Kim Jong-nam were allegedly “recruited” by a man to carry out the deadly task as early as three months ago.
According to a report by China Press, both Siti Aisyah, 25, and Doan Thi Huong, 29, were not North Korean “special agents” but were possibly duped by a spy ring to commit the assassination.
China Press reported that the mystery man, believed to be a spy, got to know Thi Huong about three months ago in Malaysia, and she eventually became his escort.
The man took her on several overseas trips, including to Vietnam, where they visited her hometown and another trip to South Korea.
The man then introduced Thi Huong to the four men still wanted by police in connection with the killing.
The man got to know Siti Aisyah about a month ago, but only introduced the two women to each other recently when he told them about a “prank “ he wanted them to pull.
The two women have claimed that they had no idea that it would lead to trouble as they thought it was only supposed to be a filming of the prank.
They apparently rehearsed the “spoof” many times and were able to carry out the process proficiently.
The report also said that Siti Aisyah was tasked with using a handkerchief to cover Jong-nam’s face while Thi Huong administered an injection.
China Press reported that Siti Aisyah claimed she was paid US$100 (RM445) to pull off the “prank”.
Jong-nam, 45, was killed by two women who splashed his face with a chemical at the KLIA2 departure hall at about 9am on Monday as he was about to leave for Macau. - The Star
On the trail of a killer called Thi Huong
KUALA LUMPUR: The woman known as Doan Thi Huong stayed in cheap hotels, carried a wad of cash and cut her hair a day before the murder of North Korean exile Kim Jong-nam.
Doan Thi Huong
According to the receptionist at one of the hotels, the woman left early in the morning on Monday, the day of the assassination.
Thi Huong had told police she had been duped into what she thought was a harmless practical joke.
However, staff at two hotels near the airport gave details of Thi Huong’s movements before the killing that appeared both calm and deliberate.
On Saturday, Feb 11, she went first to Qlassic Hotel.
A staff member said she stayed in the cheapest room, which had no windows.
“I remember she wanted to extend her stay here, and was ready to pay with a stack of money in her hand,” said another member of the Qlassic’s staff, a front-desk employee identified only as Sia.
On Sunday, Thi Huong checked into the CityView Hotel, arriving with a suitcase, a backpack and a large teddy bear, the receptionist said, adding that Thi Huong spoke understandable English.
She borrowed a pair of scissors from the front desk the evening before the attack, and a member of housekeeping staff found hair on the floor and in the waste basket the next day.
“She found the scissors on the room desk. There was hair strewn on the floor in the room, (Thi Huong) had thrown some in the bin but there was still a mess,” the receptionist said.
She said the next day, Thi Huong had on the shirt she was seen wearing in an airport CCTV grab that has earned her the nickname “LOL Girl” in Malaysian media.
Thi Huong was out for much of Monday morning and, on her return, she seemed “relaxed” and “didn’t look angry or worried”.
She complained about the Wi-Fi in her room and when she was told it could not be fixed until the afternoon, she checked out and left.
She then checked into the nearby SkyStar Hotel and left after one night, an employee said.
She was arrested on Wednesday morning, about 48 hours after the murder, in the same terminal where Jong-nam was attacked.
“Do her movements indicate she was an intelligence operative, then I would say yes,” said a private investigator in Kuala Lumpur.
“That is how they operate. Change of appearance, cash transactions, no paper trail and constantly on the move.” — Reuters
Two women suspects in Kim Jong-nam assassination remanded for seven days
KUALA LUMPUR: Two women arrested in connected with the assassination of Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, have been remanded for seven days.
Selangor police chief Comm Datuk Seri Abdul Samah Mat said the two women have been remanded until Feb 21 to assist in the investigations.
One of the women has a Vietnam passport bearing the name Doan Thi Huong while the other has an Indonesian passport bearing the name Siti Aishah.
“They have been remanded. So far, there is no press conference as a press statement have been issued. We will update if there is anymore development,” Abdul Samah told The Star Online.
At 11.05am, Magistrate Sharifah Muhaymin Abd Khalib was at the Sepang police headquarters to grant the police's application to remand the woman with the Vietnam passport.
Jong-nam, 45, was killed by two women who splashed his face with a chemical at the KLIA2 departure hall at about 9am on Monday. He was about to leave for Macau.
The women later got into a taxi and fled.
One of the women, who has the Vietnam passport, was arrested at the airport on Wednesday when she tried to board a flight out.
The woman with the Indonesian passport was arrested at 2am on Thursday.
Police are looking for four men who were in the company of the two women at the airport when Jong-nam was killed.
By Farik Zolkepli and Joash Ee De Silva The Star/|ANN
Unwanted gift
