Malaysia and China: More resilient together; surge in Chinese students

 

In accord: Xi and Anwar after witnessing a fruitful Exchange of Agreement session between the two countries at Seri Perdana on April 16. — AP

WHEN Chinese President Xi Jinping returned to Malaysia recently for a state visit after more than a decade, it must have been a nostalgic moment for the leader, as much has changed for him, Malaysia, and China in the past 12 years.

Nostalgia often invokes positive emotions, offering a sense of continuity, meaning, and connection. I believe Xi felt this with Malaysia during his recent visit, and it was evident in his opening remarks at a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

“This marks my return to Malaysia after 12 years, during which the nation has achieved remarkable progress in its development. Your Madani Government is steadily becoming a promising reality, and I extend my heartfelt congratulations,” Xi said.

Reflecting on the rich tapestry of historical ties between the two nations, Xi recalled the legendary voyages of Admiral Zheng He to Melaka in the 15th century, and the establishment of modern diplomatic relations over five decades ago in defiance of Cold War tensions at the time.

“Today, our two countries are working in unity to jointly build a community with a shared future. China-Malaysia relations are entering a new golden era,” he said, highlighting the deepening friendship between the two countries.

Building networks

Xi’s visit was relatively subdued this time, reflecting the current complexities China is facing, particularly in light of US tariffs and sanctions.

However, the underlying theme of resilience and strategic diplomacy was apparent.

Invited by His Majesty Sultan Ibrahim, the King of Malaysia, Xi’s presence from April 15 to 17 highlighted China’s determination to maintain and strengthen international relationships despite mounting external pressures.

The US measures aim to limit China’s technological advancements and limit its influence in key economic sectors. In response, China has chosen to demonstrate its resilience by strengthening ties with strategic partners like Malaysia. The timing of the visit, just days after the US announced new tariffs, seems very much a calculated move to showcase China’s ability to navigate these economic challenges.

By reinforcing partnerships in South-East Asia, China is diversifying its economic alliances and sending a message of defiance in the face of American attempts to isolate it on the global stage.

Xi’s visit highlighted China’s strategy of building robust trade networks outside Western influence, reducing vulnerability to unilateral economic pressures.

China’s resilience is also evident in its pursuit of long-term goals. Despite immediate economic challenges, China continues to invest heavily in initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, aiming to create a vast network of trade routes and partnerships across Asia, Africa, and Europe.

For China, these efforts are not just about economic survival but also about asserting sovereignty and strategic autonomy, resisting external attempts to dictate its policies.

‘Fierce independence’

Back home, Malaysia is also demonstrating resilience and strategic foresight by embracing this opportunity to solidify ties with China.

Anwar, long an advocate of Malaysia’s non-aligned policy, reiterated the country’s commitment to maintaining a balanced approach in international relations.

In his official visit to Australia to meet Prime Minister Anthony Albanese last year, Anwar emphasised Malaysia’s “fierce independence” and the country’s intention to choose its own friends, countering any China-phobic sentiment.

This stance reiterates Malaysia’s policy of not taking sides in global power struggles – a wise move for a nation that relies heavily on trade with both China and the United States.

Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, who celebrated the day of the 50th anniversary of Malaysia-China diplomatic relations in Beijing with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and other leaders last year, also noted in recent commentary that “Malaysia believes the world cannot be built on harmful competition”.

“Instead, we must forge cooperation based on mutual trust, mutual respect, and mutual unity.

“That is Malaysia’s principle – negotiating, not retaliating; opening doors, not building walls that isolate and diminish global cooperation,” he said, highlighting Malaysia’s firm stance in rejecting retaliation and emphasising mutual trust and respect in international relations.

Initiatives adopted

Xi’s visit resulted in significant outcomes, including the signing of 31 memoranda of understanding covering a wide range of sectors, from infrastructure to digital transformation. One of the highlights included expanding the “Two Countries, Twin Parks” initiative, set to drive high- impact investments and bolster Malaysia’s position in the Industrial Revolution 4.0 era.

Part of the initiatives include developing the Malaysia-China Halal Food Industrial Park on 60ha of land in Perak, leveraging Malaysia’s prestigious international halal certification system and China’s food processing experience and supply chain management. With this, Malaysia’s halal industry will certainly shine further globally.

Also, the establishment of educational institutions like Xiamen University Malaysia and the planned expansion of Universiti Malaya in Shandong, China, are testaments to the deepening educational and cultural ties between the two nations.

These initiatives, along with cooperation in artificial intelligence and the digital economy, mark a step forward in human capital development, crucial for Malaysia’s future economic competitiveness.

Students from the National Academy of Arts, Culture and Heritage welcoming the Chinese President. — Bernama

Balancing ties

As Malaysia continues in the role of Asean Chair this year, it’s crucial to strengthen the Asean Plus Three (APT) framework to make the region more resilient against external threats, like recent global tariffs and sanctions.

APT refers to the cooperative framework between the 10 Asean member countries and China, Japan and South Korea. It started in December 1997 and has evolved into a key mechanism for promoting East Asian cooperation, with Asean serving as the driving force.

Improving APT cooperation can boost economic ties, strengthen financial markets, and drive technological progress across the region. By building on initiatives like the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation – a key financial cooperation initiative within the APT – and working together on digital and climate issues, the APT can provide a strong safety net and support sustainable growth.

For Malaysia, leading this effort brings great advantages. Increased trade and investment within the APT can boost Malaysia’s economy and technological growth, creating jobs and supporting development.

As the Asean Chair, Malaysia has a unique chance to influence the regional agenda, increasing its influence while promoting cultural and personal connections. By leading this initiative, Malaysia can strengthen its economic and political position, helping the region thrive despite global challenges.

As Malaysia continues to balance its ties with both China and the US, it proves the strength of diplomacy and the pursuit of shared prosperity in a world often divided by competition and conflict. Xi’s visit not only strengthened the existing partnership but also paved the way for future collaborations that will benefit Malaysia and China, and the wider region.- Sunday Star  By ALLISON LAI

Malaysia sees surge in Chinese students

Photo: ART CHEN/The Star

PETALING JAYA: The number of students from China applying to study in Malaysian universities grew by 25% last year, driven by a shift in global student mobility. Education Malaysia Global Services (EMGS) said international students, including from China, are shifting away from the world’s ‘Big Four’ study destinations: the UK, US, Australia and Canada.

“More students are exploring dynamic and diverse destinations across Asia. Malaysia is one of the top destinations,” it told The Star.

EMGS, which is under the purview of the Higher Education Ministry, said its data shows that students from China continued to top the list of study applications to Malaysia, at 33,216 in 2024, compared to 26,627 applications in 2023.

Other top applications came from Bangladesh (6,917), Indonesia (5,556), India (2,591) and Pakistan (2,417).

From January to March this, application by students from China continued to grow by 2%, rising to 5,876 from 5,780 in the same period last year.

 

A Flourish data visualization

EMGS said Malaysia’s multilingual environment, political stability, safety, as well as rich cultural experiences, are motivating factors for China students to pursue their studies in the country.

 

“Malaysia's geographical proximity to China also makes it easier and more affordable for students to travel back home during holidays and maintain close ties with their families.”

A Flourish chart

China Daily recently reported that more Chinese families are reconsidering higher education plans in the US due to worsening bilateral relations and growing concerns over safety abroad.

 

Parents, the report said, are considering countries that have a good relationship with China as political stability ensures the safety of their children abroad.

The report also indicated that data from the 2024 Open Doors Report on Inter¬national Educational Exchange showed that China was surpassed by India as the largest source of international students in the United States for the 2023-2024 academic year.

There were 277,398 students from the Chinese mainland enrolled in US higher education institutions during that period, a figure that has been dropping annually since peaking at 372,532 in the 2019-2020 academic year.

EMGS said Malaysia, under the Education Blueprint 2015-2025, is targeting 250,000 international students by 2025 with 39% contributed by China.

“The consistent rise in international student applications, along with a student-friendly visa system, reflects Malaysia’s commitment to transforming into a global classroom and strengthening its global influence and soft power,” said EMGS.

It added that Malaysia offers internationally recognized degrees, often in partnership with prestigious universities from the UK, Australia, and the US, allowing students to earn a reputable degree at a fraction of the cost.

“The qualification from Malaysia is also widely-recognised and highly regarded in China so students are able to find jobs easily after graduation.”

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Global Civilization Initiative proposed by Xi 'provides hope to heal the world in turbulence' – another gift from China to world

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Chinese president, attends the CPC in Dialogue with World Political Parties High-Level Meeting via video link and delivers a keynote address in Beijing, capital of China, on March 15, 2023. Photo: Xinhua

 Global Civilization Initiative proposed by Xi 'provides hope to heal the world in turbulence'

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Chinese president, proposed the Global Civilization Initiative. Experts said following the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, China is trying to share its wisdom and plans to bring new hope for all nations to consider together on how to escape the trap of the "Clash of Civilizations" and find a path that can help the world sail through the current turbulence.

Xi proposed the initiative during his  key note speech on Wednesday at the opening ceremony of the CPC in Dialogue with World Political Parties High-Level Meeting via video link and delivered a keynote address.

Under the initiative, Xi called for respect for diversity of civilizations, advocating the common values of humanity, highly valuing the inheritance and innovation of civilizations, and jointly advocating robust international people-to-people exchanges and cooperation.

"We are ready to work together with the international community to open up a new prospect of enhanced exchanges and understanding among different peoples and better interactions and integration of diversified cultures. Together we can make the garden of world civilizations colorful and vibrant," Xi said.

World needs hope

According to a Xinhua News Agency story on Thursday, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, also president of the African National Congress, and 11 other leaders of political parties and political organizations also addressed the dialogue on Wednesday.

They spoke highly of Xi's proposals in his keynote speech, and expressed their willingness to work with the CPC to play a leading and driving role in the modernization process.

"We fully agree with the four proposals put forward by Chinese President Xi in the Global Civilization Initiative," Ramaphosa said, noting the initiative is vital to the world today.

The event, with the theme "Path towards Modernization: the Responsibility of Political Parties," brought together more than 500 leaders of political parties and political organizations from more than 150 countries.

Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times on Thursday that the Global Civilization Initiative will help the world get rid of the old mentality for relations between different civilizations, and create a new landscape for the world which allows all countries to deal with each other based on stability, mutual respect and equality.

Experts said a very fundamental reason why the world at present is experiencing great turbulence is that the old international order dominated by the US-led West is making the world fall into the trap of "Clash of Civilizations," with many countries with different civilizations having a hard time to deal with each other peacefully.

Li said that within the US, people from different ethnic groups and with different religious beliefs are having more tensions rather than becoming more united. For the foreign affairs, during the time of the Trump administration, US senior officials openly hyped "Clash of Civilizations" and currently Washington is still having tensions with many countries with different civilizations, and even instigating conflicts between the countries in the same region with similar civilization.

At present, the old system and order dominated by the US-led West is causing huge problems and dangers to the world in the fields like geopolitics, supply and industrial chains, as well as the financial markets.

The Ukraine crisis is still far from easing, and the energy and foods crises are troubling many countries worldwide. At present, the new danger of a potential global financial crisis brought along by the collapse of US-based Silicon Valley Bank and the problem of Credit Suisse in Europe has made the world more unstable.

Liu Dian, an associate research fellow of the China Institute under Fudan University, told the Global Times on Thursday that in recent years, the world has been facing rising challenges and uncertainties.

"It's just about 15 years away from the financial crisis in 2008, the world is once again under the shadow of another crisis caused by the US," Liu noted. "The world is getting increasingly worried about the old system and getting more desperate to ask for new solution."

Contribute with action

From the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative to the latest Global Civilization Initiative, China has presented the world with an ideological system that gets increasingly mature. Adding to the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the ideal of the global community of shared future, China is trying to use its own wisdom, experiences and influence based on its own successful development and exploration in the past decades to help the world improve and reform the old problematic international system and order, experts said.

Liu said that the series of initiatives proposed by the top leader of the CPC and China are answering the questions for the world and our time. The combination of these three initiatives shows China's comprehensive thoughts that aim to solve global problems and improve global governance.

China is not just proposing the initiatives, but also making contribution through actions, and gain concrete achievements, analysts said. For instance, the successful mediation that lead to the resumption of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the BRI that links countries with different civilizations to jointly realize development.

The vast majority of the international community welcomes and praises the latest reestablishment of Riyadh-Teheran diplomatic ties with China's support and assistance. This shows that the world in turbulence and regions in chaos desperately need new hope and new solution for peace and stability. China is actively utilizing its influence and wisdom to solve global challenges, as a result, more and more countries will be open to and carefully consider and research China's initiatives, Liu said. 

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Global Civilization Initiative – another gift from China to world: Global Times editorial

 

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Chinese president, proposed the Global Civilization Initiative when he delivered a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the CPC in Dialogue with World Political Parties High-Level Meeting on Wednesday. This is the third major global initiative presented by China after the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative. It fundamentally answers a series of questions of the times, such as "What kind of modernization do we need?" and "How can we achieve modernization?" The initiative has become another important public good provided to the world.

The background of the Global Civilization Initiative is that in recent years, as geopolitical conflicts have intensified, the "clash of civilizations" and "superiority of civilizations" have returned to public attention under the instigation and hype of some politicians in the US and the West. The hatred and estrangement among different civilizations have seriously hindered international cooperation. At the same time, "black swan" and "grey rhino" incidents are occurring frequently in the international community, and multiple challenges and crises are intertwined and superimposed. Different countries and civilizations urgently need to work together to deal with global challenges that affect the future and destiny of mankind as a whole. The Global Civilization Initiative can be said to have emerged in response to the demand of the times, and has strong practical significance and practical value.

The Global Civilization Initiative puts forward four initiatives - respect for diversity of civilizations, advocating the common values of humanity, highly valuing the inheritance and innovation of civilizations, and jointly advocating robust international people-to-people exchanges and cooperation. It covers the basic concepts and principles that different civilizations can tolerate each other and coexist, and has the source of motivation and a practical path for realization. It is a major initiative that is very constructive, operable and sustainable. Since it advocates respect for different civilizations and support for their development rights, it fully meets the strong needs of the international community and has shown strong vitality from the very beginning, arousing enthusiastic responses in the international community.

As abovementioned, after the end of the Cold War, the world entered an era of high globalization, but it has not really experienced peace. The Cold War mentality and practice of demarcating ideological boundaries and engaging in camp confrontation have not disappeared. On the contrary, in recent years it is resurging. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is essentially a remnant of the Cold War detonating a powder keg in the 21st century. In other parts of the world, the practice of distinguishing between friends and foes in the name of "values" and wooing one faction while fighting against another faction casts a huge shadow on world peace and development.

Furthermore, without true equality and inclusion among civilizations, the process of peace and development will always be at risk of being interrupted. There have been too many tragedies in this regard, both historical and current. In this sense, the Global Civilization Initiative is an extension and complement to the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, and together they form the key components of a human community with a shared future.

The world does not need hatred, division or conflict, and the people of all countries want to live a good life. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the Communist Party of China has led the Chinese people to create two miracles - rapid economic development and long-term social stability. These are by no means "out of luck." Instead, they have their own profound internal logic. The Global Civilization Initiative, Global Development Initiative and Global Security Initiative are highly condensed versions of China's past successful experiences, which China is willing to share with the world without reservation to achieve common development through mutual exchange and learning. It can be said that these three initiatives are all high-quality global public goods demonstrating China's sincerity and goodwill.

It should be emphasized that China is not only a "thinker" but also a "doer" in promoting building a human community with a shared future. In the past year or so, the number of countries and international organizations supporting the Global Development Initiative has increased to more than 100; the Group of Friends of the GDI established on the UN platform has expanded to more than 60 members; and platforms such as the Global Development and South-South Cooperation Trust Fund, the Global Development Promotion Center, and the China Global Development Knowledge Network have also been established one after another. Just a few days ago, Saudi Arabia and Iran held a dialogue and reached an agreement in Beijing, which also became a successful practice of the Global Security Initiative. This happened less than a year after the initiative was first proposed.

Thus, there are more reasons to expect that the Global Civilization Initiative, together with the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, will constantly inject stability and bring new hope to this world of turbulence and transformation. At the same time, we also believe that "Chinese modernization, as a new form of human advancement, will draw upon the merits of other civilizations and make the garden of world civilizations more vibrant." 

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New Chinese leadership new journey begins

 

Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, and the other newly elected members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang and Li Xi, meet the press at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Oct. 23, 2022. (Xinhua/Shen Hong)

 

 Xi Jinping was elected general secretary of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) at the committee's first plenary session held on Sunday, according to the communique of the plenary session.

The session, presided over by Xi, was attended by 203 members of the 20th CPC Central Committee and 168 alternate members. Xi was also named chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission at the session.

The members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee elected at the session are Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, Zhao Leji, Wang Huning, Cai Qi, Ding Xuexiang and Li Xi.

Zhao and Wang were members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 19th CPC Central Committee. Li Qiang, Cai and Li Xi have served as Party chiefs of municipal CPC committees in Shanghai, Beijing and the Provincial CPC committee of Guangdong Province since 2017. Ding has been director of the General Office of the CPC Central Committee since 2017.

Analysts said the new central leadership of the Party with a strong core leadership, demonstrated solid unity, which is a key advantage and essential element for the Party to handle complex challenges and accomplish new great missions in the future, and to withstand "dangerous storms" in a turbulent world together.

Also elected at the first plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee were members of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the session, which endorsed the members of the CPC Central Committee Secretariat nominated by the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.

The session named the members of the Central Military Commission, with Zhang Youxia and He Weidong as vice chairmen. The session approved the secretary, deputy secretaries and members of the Standing Committee of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) elected at the first plenary session of the 20th CCDI.

Remarks of confidence

After the plenary session concluded, Xi led the Party's new central leadership to meet Chinese and foreign journalists on Sunday at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, and delivered a speech at the meeting with the press.

Xi said China will open its door wider to the rest of the world. "We'll be steadfast in deepening reform and opening up across the board, and in pursuing high-quality development," Xi said when meeting the press, noting that a prosperous China will create many more opportunities for the world.

Just as China cannot develop in isolation from the world, the world needs China for its development, Xi said. Through over 40 years of relentless reform and opening-up, China has created the twin miracles of fast economic growth and long-term social stability, he said.

Chinese analysts said it shows that both the CPC's and Chinese people's determination on reform and opening-up is unchanged, and the Party will unwaveringly insist on the successful policy and strategy, which is a message of confidence and certainty not only to the Chinese economic development, but also to the world in turbulence and global recovery.

The Chinese economy has great resilience and potential, Xi said. "Its strong fundamentals will not change, and it will remain on the positive trajectory over the long run."

The week-long 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) concludes on October 22, 2022, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: Li Hao/GT

Humanity's shared values

Xi on Sunday also expressed China's commitment to promoting the building of a human community with a shared future.

"We will work with peoples of all other countries to champion humanity's shared values of peace, development, fairness, justice, democracy, and freedom to safeguard global peace and promote global development, and keep promoting the building of a human community with a shared future," Xi said when meeting the press at the Great Hall of the People.

Xi's remarks further highlight the core ideas of China's diplomacy since the 18th CPC National Congress, emphasizing the stability and continuity of major diplomatic policies, which drew a sharp contrast with certain countries that emphasize their own absolute security and maximize their own interests, building up small blocs, Su Xiaohui, deputy director of Department of International and Strategic Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times on Sunday.

"It shows that our diplomacy is not based on selfish and zero-sum mentalities, and the idea of promoting a human community with a shared future is winning and will win more support from the international community, especially from developing countries," Su said.

The concept of "humanity's shared values"  presented by the CPC is very different from the "universal values" promoted by the West, experts said. Based on the facts about the destruction and chaos in the non-Western world that has been caused by major Western powers, these so-called "universal values" actually serve as a pretext for hegemony to bully, interfere in and invade other nations, and the "values" are actually dividing the world rather than uniting it, as the West, especially the US, uses these concepts to create "enemies and competitors" to unite its own allies and followers, despite being guilty of hypocrisy and double-standards in many cases.

But the CPC's concept of "humanity's shared values" is inclusive and aims to unite all members of the international community and all civilizations, which also include civilizations in the Western world, and China under the CPC's leadership will always oppose and fight hegemony that threatens world peace, and will never follow the suit of hegemony or imperialism in the past to repeat the bloody and brutal path of rising in the new journey toward its Second Centenary Goal, experts said.

At this critical moment for the world to learn what China's core leadership will do, experts noted that China's core diplomatic ideas were incorporated in Xi's first address since he was elected general secretary of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC, indicating that China will uphold those common values of humanity by highlighting fairness and justice.

Keep Party invincible

"A political party can only become invincible if it remains committed to self-reform, even though it has had a glorious past," Xi made the remarks when meeting the press at the Great Hall of the People.

The revolutionary travails and tempering of the past century, and especially of the first decade of the new era, have made the CPC stronger and more dynamic, Xi said.

Xi urged the CPC members to remain on high alert and stay sober-minded and prudent in the face of new challenges and tests on the journey ahead.

Zhang Shuhua, director of the Institute of Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday that "Facing an increasingly complex international environment, especially when Western political systems are deteriorating and many Western countries have no longer been able to elect leaders with professional performance, the CPC underscores a strong leadership, showing its capability to organize, unite and execute."

Political authority, consistency and certainty of the leadership are important for a major power to prevent the risk and handle the crisis in a turbulent world, and the CPC provides crucial advantages for China to overcome challenges in the future and to win the tough competition and confrontation launched by a few countries, experts said.

"We must make sure that our century-old Party, the biggest in the world, will become ever more vigorous through self-reform and continue to be the strong backbone that the Chinese people can lean on at all times," Xi said. He stressed that the Party should always act for the people and rely on the people on the journey ahead.

The week-long 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) concludes on October 22, 2022, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Photo: Li Hao/GT

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• Hope US will comprehensively, accurately receive signals from 20th CPC National Congress: Global Times editorial

• 

It is hoped that the US can fully and accurately receive the signals the 20th CPC National Congress has sent out, correct its strategic perception of China, meet China halfway, and push China-US relations 

 

 

China's new journey will show richer global significance: Global Times editorial

On Sunday noon, members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee appeared before the press at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. This event marks that a series of important political agendas surrounding the 20th CPC National Congress came to a successful conclusion. Like a huge ship, China will move forward under the leadership of the new CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core. The course the Party has charted has a global significance: It not only reflects the maturity and stability of the CPC as a major party, but also injects certainty into a world beset by changes and turmoil. 

 

China won't export devt model, opposes imposition on others

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After reading a report delivered by Xi Jinping to the #20thCPCNationalCongress, Rick O'Shea said he has some photos to share. Check to find out the stories behind those who witnessed the significant development in the new era of China

Xi’s 10-year rule and what lies ahead

 

 

 

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Why Western Democracy is in Serious Trouble

A toast: Xi and Li raising glasses during a reception at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. — Reuters

 

AS the Communist Party of China prepares for its 20th National Congress in October, where President Xi Jinping is expected to secure a controversial third term as top leader, Asian Insider looks at his record over the last 10 years and what the future holds for him, the party and the country.

Last weekend, Twitter was abuzz with “news” that there had been a military coup in Beijing and President Xi Jinping was under house arrest.

The grist to the rumour mill: Hundreds of flights had been cancelled across the country, Xi had not been seen in public for a week, and a video showing a military convoy making its way into the capital city was being widely circulated.

Unsubstantiated claims and conspiracy theories about Chinese leaders’ fall and demise come and go with enough regularity to make the most seasoned China watchers roll their eyes every time one of them pops up on social media.

The 101-year-old Communist Party of China swept to power 73 years ago on Saturday, but it is still one of the world’s most opaque political parties.

As it gears up for its twice-a-decade congress in two weeks, where nearly 2,300 delegates will elect a new Central Committee made up of 370 or so leaders, it is keeping political pundits guessing over who might rise in the ranks to lead the country of 1.4 billion people.

The Politburo Standing Committee – the pinnacle of power with seven men – and the wider Politburo of 18 other leaders will be of particular interest to most.

But compounding the difficulty in making any predictions is President Xi Jinping’s track record of breaking norms – whether written or unwritten – and the cloak of secrecy that has only thickened under his rule.

Only two things appear to be certain for now: President Xi will secure a rare third five-year term as party and military chief during the week-long gathering. And there will be no apparent successor.

But who else might stand alongside Xi when the new team takes the stage a day after the conclave? Here are three possible scenarios:

Most conservativeTwo of the seven standing committee members will step down, in keeping with an unwritten retirement rule that requires Li Zhanshu, 72, and Han Zheng, 68, to relinquish their third-ranked and seventh-ranked seats.

The “seven up, eight down” rule sets at 67 the age limit for old and new members of the standing committee and the Politburo at the start of a new term. Politicians aged 68 or older are disqualified.

But the rule does not apply to Xi, 69, who is looking to seek a third term in office.

Conventional wisdom has it that Premier Li Keqiang, 67, will retain his second-ranked seat in the standing committee because he has not reached the retirement age. But he is constitutionally required to step down as premier in 2023 after two five-year terms and could take over Li Zhanshu’s role as head of Parliament.

Wang Yang, 67, who is chairman of Parliament’s top advisory body, is the frontrunner to succeed Li Keqiang as premier in 2023. As far as seniority goes, Wang should be next in line for the prime minister’s job.

Tradition also dictates that only those who have been vice-premiers and are capable of managing the economy can be appointed premier. Wang was vice-premier between 2013 and 2018, overseeing commerce, among other things.

Current standing committee members who have yet to reach retirement age could stay on. Zhao Leji, 65, currently ranked sixth, could take Wang’s fourth-ranked seat and become chairman of the advisory body in 2023.

Wang Huning, 67 in October, is expected to retain his fifth-ranked seat as the party’s top ideologist.

Party insiders have singled out Hu Chunhua, 59, and Ding Xuexiang, 60, as the two likely new faces in the standing committee.

Hu, currently the third-ranked vice-premier and who was thought to have been groomed for the top job during the leadership reshuffle at the last congress, is tipped to become executive vice-premier.

Ding, director of the party’s General Office, is the frontrunner among the President’s men to be promoted to the standing committee. He is Xi’s most trusted aide among the younger leaders.

Other aspirants are Propaganda Minister Huang Kunming, 64; Beijing party secretary Cai Qi, 66; Chongqing party boss Chen Min’er, 62; and Shanghai party secretary Li Qiang, 63.

But this scenario could well be too unimaginative for Xi, who has a penchant for departing from tradition and surprising pundits.

The surprise

In the second scenario, Premier Li will retire from the standing committee this year and as premier next year, according to several party insiders and observers.

Three other standing committee members will also step down: Li Zhanshu and Han – in accordance with the retirement rule – and Wang Huning, who was said to have indicated privately that he would like to retire earlier.

Only three of the seven standing committee members will retain their seats: President Xi, Wang Yang and Zhao.

The four other standing committee members will be newcomers and mostly the President’s men.

Regardless of whether Premier Li stays on or not, the number of standing committee members could be expanded to nine to accommodate more of the President’s allies and possibly a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) general for the first time since 1992 – a hint that China might be preparing itself for military conflict.

If so, the person who fits the bill is PLA Ground Force General Zhang Youxia, 72, one of two incumbent Central Military Commission vice-chairmen, and who has combat experience from the 1979 border conflict between China and Vietnam.Most boldIn this scenario, President Xi will be the only standing committee member to hold on to his seat – a clear sign of his iron grip on power.

This could be done if the unwritten retirement age rule is revised down instead of up.

“It will be ‘winner takes all’,” said Ho Pin, who runs Mirror Media Group, a Chinese-language publishing company in New York.

“There will still be norms, but no more factions,” said Ho, who correctly predicted the standing committee line-ups of the 16th to 19th party congresses from 2002 to 2017.

Factional balance of power has always been a major factor in the composition of the standing committee to keep the unity and stability of the party.

The current standing committee strikes a balance between Xi and his allies (Li Zhanshu and Zhao), former president Jiang Zemin’s “Shanghai Gang” (Han Zheng) and former leader Hu Jintao’s Communist Youth League faction (Li Keqiang and Wang Yang).

Even so, these factional lines are also not so clear-cut. Zhao, for instance, is also known as Jiang’s man, while Wang is also not as entrenched within the elite circles of the youth league.

Wang Huning is the exception as he was trusted by and has worked with all three leaders.

If Xi’s hold on power is as unwavering as it looks to be, this scenario could well pan out, and he will have free rein to fill the standing committee with younger allies, such as those born in the 1960s. — The Straits Times/ANN 

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