Young buyers flock to property market

Why millennials are flocking to real estate

Interest rate cuts, govt incentives spur buying interests

“We believe the strong growth in our young buyers is both a natural evolution and as a result of a conscious strategic effort we have made to appeal to this important customer group,"-
Datuk Chang Khim Wah

 

Eco World Development Group Bhd president and chief executive officer Datuk Chang Khim Wah told StarBiz the increase in younger buyers was due to a conscious strategic effort made by the group to appeal to this target market.

Property developers are seeing a pick up in sales, especially from younger buyers, as the numerous interest rate cuts and government incentives have spurred buying interest.

Eco World Development Group Bhd president and chief executive officer Datuk Chang Khim Wah said the increase in younger buyers was due to a conscious strategic effort made by the group to appeal to this target market.

“During our initial years of operations (circa 2015) the percentage of young buyers (below 40 years old) was around 43% and today it is more than 70%.

“We believe the strong growth in our young buyers is both a natural evolution and as a result of a conscious strategic effort we have made to appeal to this important customer group, both through the products we are offering as well as the way in which we engage them via social media and digital channels, ” he told StarBiz.

Of the 70%, Chang said around 50% are in their 30s and the remaining 20% are in their 20s. “We are particularly happy that a good number of these buyers include children of our own customers and residents in the vicinity of our development. This validates our efforts over the last few years to make a strong pivot to serve the needs of this market segment and the wider M40 group.

“Our upcoming launch of the new Duduk series of vertical townships offering semi-furnished apartments priced below RM400,000 at Eco Ardence and Eco Sanctuary, as well landed homes starting from RM500,000 at Eco Botanic 2, will enable us to further capture the hearts and minds of this very important market segment.”

Chang said the prolonged movement control order (MCO) period has really made many young people realise that the quality of home and living environment matters greatly.

Mah Sing Group Bhd chief executive officer Datuk Ho Hon Sang (pic below) said as the bulk of its projects comprised units within the affordable range segment, the majority of its buyers comprised those below 35 years of age.

“For Mah Sing, 84% of our target sales for 2020 are for residential properties priced below RM700,000 with key focus in the affordable segment. We typically see about 65% of buyers who are 35 years and below, for most of the affordable projects were launched in recent years. Hence, the majority of our buyers are first time homeowners.”

Despite the challenging market environment in view of the Covid-19 pandemic, Ho said demand continues to be resilient as property remained one of the safest forms of asset class for long-term capital protection and appreciation.

“Malaysia’s population is still very young with 66% below 40 years old and as such, household formation continues to be strong. Affordably-priced properties of good quality and at strategic locations remain highly sought after.

“This is especially for first-time home buyers, which augers well for Mah Sing’s product composition.”

Sunway Property said it is seeing increasing interest from younger buyers from 25 years to 35 years in its properties that are transit-oriented and have good facilities nearby.

“For example, our developments such as the transit-oriented Sunway Avila in Wangsa Maju, the integrated and transit-oriented Sunway Velocity TWO and the youth-focused development of Sunway Grid in Sunway Iskandar has seen enthusiastic response from younger purchasers, ” it said.

Property data, analytics and solutions provider MyProperty Data chief executive officer Thor Joe Hock said the median age for residential property transactions has gradually dropped over the years.

“When we look at the over 2.5 million residential property transactions, including serviced apartments, it appears that the median age of buyers from 2000 to 2019 has remained largely unchanged at between 34 to 35 years of age.

“However, when you break it down into landed and non-landed transactions, we start to get a clearer picture. The median age for non-landed properties has fallen from 40 years in 2000 to 28 years in 2019; while the median age for landed property purchasers marginally decreased from 40 years to 37 years over the same period.”

MyProperty Data manages a property data portal called PropertyAdvisor.

Meanwhile, Lagenda Properties Bhd managing director Datuk Jimmy Doh said more than half of its buyers are below 39 years of age.

“We believe as young people start new phases in their lives, for example getting a job or starting their own families, they prefer to stay independently and have their own space, granted that the properties are within their price range.

“Over the past few years, we have been seeing an increase in buyers. Our properties are priced below RM200,000, ” he said.

MIDF Research in a recent report said the aggressive overnight policy rate (OPR) cuts have improved home buyers’ purchasing power.

“Bank Negara cut its overnight policy rate for the fourth time this year by 25 basis points (bps) to a record low of 1.75% in July due to the severe impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the global economy. The aggressive OPR cuts this year are positive to the sector as it improved home buyer’s purchasing power by reducing loan installments.

“We estimate monthly installments to reduce by 14%, after 125 bps cut for RM500,000 loan with a loan repayment period of 30 years, which is quite significant in our view. Hence, we think the record-low interest rate will partly help to alleviate home buyers’ issue of securing home financing, as the record low yield has boosted the affordability of home buyers.”

MIDF Research also said it expected loan demand to recover in the second half of 2020.

Citing Bank Negara’s statistics, it said total applied loan for the purchase of property improved sequentially by 52.9% month-on-month to RM13.1bil in May, after plunging by 64.8% month-on-month in April.

“Note that total applied loan recorded steep decline in April due to the disruption to business activity following the commencement of the MCO.

“Nevertheless, total applied loan in May was lower by 61.8% year-on-year while cumulative total applied loan in the first five months of 2020 was lower by 33.6% year-on-year, indicating buying interest was subdued.”

Looking ahead, the research house expected buying interest to recover in the second half of this year, spurred by incentives introduced by the government.

Under the Short-Term Economic Recovery Plan (Penjana), which was announced in June, the government reintroduced the Home Ownership Campaign (HOC). Under the HOC, stamp duty exemption will be provided on the transfer of property and loan agreement for the purchase of home priced between RM300,000 and RM2.5mil.

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RM525mil investment for Penang to create 1,600 jobs & human capital programme

( From left) Chow looking at the Penang NCER human capital graphic info. With him are John, state executive councillor Datuk Abdul Halim .

Do we still need an office?

Millennials now make up over a third of the workplace and overwhelmingly value flexibility in where, when and how to work. And top talent has been increasingly clustering in dense urban areas and has been unwilling to commute to suburban office parks

We found that data availability and transparency in the real estate sector is less than what we were used to when we were

RM525mil investment for Penang to create 1,600 jobs & human capital programme

(From left) Chow looking at the Penang NCER human capital graphic info. With him are John, state executive councillor Datuk Abdul Halim Hussain and state secretary Datuk Abdul Razak Jaafar.

SIX companies will inject a total of RM525.3mil into Penang’s economy through the Northern Corridor Implementation Authority (NCIA), said Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow.

The investment, under the second phase of the EmpowerNCER human capital development programme, would create 1,600 jobs, especially for those affected by Covid-19 pandemic.

“The investment will help cushion the effect of the pandemic and also complement the state’s efforts in creating new jobs,” Chow said after meeting the investors in Komtar on Thursday.

The six companies are PTS Industries Sdn Bhd (RM2mil), Clarive Analytics Malaysia Sdn Bhd (RM159mil), Iconic Penang Sdn Bhd (RM150mil), Osram Opto Semiconductors Sdn Bhd (RM110.07mil), UWHM Sdn Bhd (RM65.5mil) and Coraza Systems Malaysia Sdn Bhd (RM38.73mil).

At the event, Chow also gave appointment letters to four district officers to implement the Empower-NCER programme in their districts.

Asked if the state had taken into account all the factors which could affect the investment climate during the pandemic, Chow said the investments by the six companies were testimony that new investments were still flowing into the state.

“Even in the state Task Force Committee today, NCIA’S figures show a lower investment figure since the outbreak of the pandemic, but we expect a gradual increase in investments over a period of time,” he said.

NCIA chief executive officer Datuk Seri Jebasingam Issace John said besides fulfilling the needs of the industrial sector, the manpower in Penang must be equipped with the skills and know-how under the new economic norm post-Covid 19.

“The human capital programmes are to ensure that the manpower has the resilience to compete and make themselves relevant in the various business environments which have become more challenging at present times.

“The expected improvement could be seen between 18 and 24 months from now and we expect all to return to normal by 2025,” he said.

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Be the bull in a bear market – stop procrastination

https://youtu.be/UzoZxKmLOAI

We’re almost well into the third quarter of 2020 – have you made headway in any of this year’s financial priorities and goals? Or perhaps you have been thrown off guard by the state of affairs in by the Covid-19? In a challenging environment like now, it is even more crucial to sit down and do a critical review of your latest financial status.

TIME flies by quickly when you’re going about your daily grind. We’re almost well into the third quarter of 2020 – have you made headway in any of this year’s financial priorities and goals?

Or perhaps you have been thrown off guard by the state of affairs in by the Covid-19? In a challenging environment like now, it is even more crucial to sit down and do a critical review of your latest financial status.

Loss of livelihood, pay cuts, unemployment, business closures, and a looming global recession – this is the trail of devastation left by a virus which has played havoc around the globe.

Interesting enough, if this health crisis is not enough to shake you into action to take charge of your finances, then what will?

According to the Oxford English dictionary, procrastination is defined as a postponement, “often with the sense of deferring though indecision, when early action would have been preferable, ” or as “defer[ing] action, especially without good reason.”

Throughout my experience as a licensed financial advisor, I have met many people who procrastinated over reviewing their financial status, let alone in growing their wealth. There are many reasons for this. Some lack the knowledge on where to begin, while others may cite the poor state of economy or our poor tax regime. However, the bigger reason usually lies in our tendency to procrastinate.

Procrastination is one of mankind’s biggest weaknesses – we have all procrastinated doing something important at some point. But in the world of finance, procrastination can result in an opportunity loss to mitigate risk and in growing wealth – sometimes an opportunity which can never be recovered. After all, it takes time for any investment to compound into a significant figure.

Yap ming HuiYap ming Hui

In this article, I’m going to highlight some of the common reasons people use to put off taking actions on their financial matters.

> “I don’t have enough time to plan and invest”

This is a common reason people often say, when putting off investing. In today’s economy, most households require both spouses to work full-time jobs in order to afford the lifestyle that they desire. In the office, you’re stressing about deadlines, projects to complete, and deadlines to meet.

At home you’re likely seeing to your family, social life, and chores, and any leftover time is probably spent away vacationing to rejuvenate so you can rinse and repeat. Add kids to the equation, and you’ll barely have any time left to breathe.

Who really has the time to spend to research, plan and invest? After all, you still have 20 years headstart till your retirement, you should be able to put it off for later, right?

Wrong. Pushing things for later is comfortable, as you convince yourself that it will get done eventually. However, as most of us know by now, later is a concept that is never ending. There is always a “later” to convince yourself about. Before you know it, too much time would have passed and you’ll have too little time to play catch up to achieve the financial goals you could have well achieved if you started earlier.

What you need to do: Set a date and time and clear your schedule. If being at home is too much of a distraction with the family present, then find a place where you can be isolated to focus on your financial planning. Alternatively, outsource these efforts to an independent financial advisor who can review your financial status and manage the wealth for you.

> “I don’t have enough money to plan and invest”

Most people don’t realise it, but having enough money is a matter of perspective. If you don’t have enough money to invest when you’re earning RM5,000 a month, do you think you will have enough to invest when you’re earning RM50,000 a month? Believe it or not, I have met several people earning around RM50,000 or more per month and still lament about not having enough to save and invest.

We always think along the lines of “if only we make more money”, but once we actually start making more money, our expenses and lifestyle will also go up a notch.

The famous Parkinson’s Law coined by C. Northcote Parkinson in his book The Law and The Profits illustrates this concept best. The law says that work expands to fill the time that is allocated to complete it. In other words, if given a 24-hour deadline, a 20-minute job will take a day to complete.

He goes on to say that individual expenditure does not only rise to meet income but it tends to surpass it, and probably always will. So, if you’re waiting for a time when you feel you have enough money to save and invest, that time will never come.

What you need to do: Take a long hard look at your expenses. This is critical since we are now in challenging economic times. Mindfully track your spending habits for a month and cut back on luxuries that you can live without. If it helps, set up a standing instruction with your bank to automatically transfer a portion of your salary into another bank account. Use that to start investing. Every small portion helps, so don’t think that cutting back on a small luxury is insignificant.

> “I don’t really need to invest”

People won’t admit to thinking this, but they do. This fallacy of not needing to invest stems from the fact that when they retire someday, they will have their EPF savings to rely on. Technically, if you are earning a comfortable amount and do not make any EPF withdrawals before you retire, you may be right in thinking this.

However, this is hardly the case. EPF has reported that more than two-thirds (68%) of EPF members aged 54 had less than RM50,000 in EPF savings, while only 18% of its members had the minimum savings target of RM240,000 in their account by 55. This amounts to a monthly withdrawal of RM1,000 to cover basic needs for 20 years – sufficient if you want to live a basic retirement lifestyle, but nowhere near what is needed for a comfortable retirement in a middle-class lifestyle.

So if you’re thinking of relying mainly on your EPF savings, think again. Your EPF should act as an additional retirement fund on top of your other retirement savings, instead of being the only pillar in your retirement plan.

What you need to do: Start planning now for additional retirement savings. Before you invest, determine the lifestyle that you want to live when you’re retired and calculate how much you’d roughly need over the span of your retirement. Don’t know where to start?

Use a holistic financial planning app, like iWealth, to do a comprehensive calculation on your retirement and other major financial goals. Remember to factor in inflation.

While half of the year has flown by just like that, it’s never too late to examine your financial health and take the necessary steps to protect and grow your wealth.

Over the years I’ve shared many articles to inspire middle class folk like yourselves to take control of your financial destiny.

I certainly hope this knowledge has proven useful and relevant to your personal circumstances.

However, I also hope that you have begun putting into place some of these practices. Today, you may have gotten a better idea of what has been stopping you from investing properly.

Procrastination is a very human trait – but if you’re able to identify what’s been holding you back and take the necessary measures to monitor yourself and counter this, you’ll already have the upper hand on your future.

Remember, true power comes from knowledge. But knowledge without action, is useless.

During good times, there may not be an urgency to act. But we have now arrived at an unprecedented juncture where there will be a cost or consequence to our inaction. If this is not the time to take the bull by the horns, then when?

By Yap Ming Hui

The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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More heartaches than happiness

Many investors get their fingers burned in dubious money-making schemes

M Mall in Penang where MBI investors can exchange their virtual coins is now almost deserted.

IT may seem like it was not so long ago that money-game was practically on everybody’s lips especially here in Penang,

My close friend even invested in MBI Group International which was one of the most popular investment schemes then.

At its peak, one would be considered the odd one out for not investing in the scheme.

How times have changed. Now, my friend is telling me that he has not heard from his upline for months.

It was a far cry from the time when the upline would tell him how good the scheme was, and even spell out a time frame to cash in on the investments.

Most investors have now resigned to the fact that their investments are as good as gone. They feel ashamed to lodge police reports and many just suffer in silence for fear of people teasing them.

However, their counterparts from China were less forgiving.

In October, hundreds of them staged a peaceful protest near the Chinese Embassy in Kuala Lumpur. Wailing and sobbing, they urged the Chinese government to help them recover the hundreds of million ringgit they had invested in the Penang-based company.

In Penang, several groups of Chinese investors also vented their frustration at a hotel and the jetty of an island resort here, where both properties are said to be associated with the company.

The last we heard, three of them even went to the extent of dropping fake bombs at a house in Bukit Gambier out of desperation.

The house belongs to the son of MBI Group International founder Tedy Teow. Luckily, no untoward incidents took place.

Another friend of mine told me that he started believing in karma after putting faith in the money- game.

He is now convinced that what goes around, comes around. This is his story.

He put in a sum of money in BTC I-system, a scheme which claimed to invest in bitcoin digital currency.

Without even knowing how the investment works, he managed to get back his capital within two months, plus a few thousand of ringgits extra in the next few months. Then the scheme collapsed.

He then took the plunge again in another scheme. He was confident of easy money again, especially after being told he was among the first few to join the investment. He was not so lucky this time.

The profit that he got in the first investment ended up paying for the second scheme that went bust.

I have seen many people whose relationship with family members had become strained all because of these dubious schemes.

Direct Selling Association of Malaysia (DSAM) president Datuk Tan Chong Guan reminded the public that there is no free lunch in this world.

“Where there is no sales but a return is promised on investments, this is a sign that it is a money-game, or a pyramid scheme, ” he was quoted then.

If you still could not figure out or get a clear explanation on how the investment will make money, then you better opt out.

If it involves any chain-recruitment that offers commissions for bringing in new affiliates, or sophisticated or complicated investment schemes that sound too alien, then you better avoid it.

Always remember that one has to work hard to earn one’s keep.

But believe me, money-game would always re-emerge in other forms, just like the online scams as long as there is human greed.

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Smooth operation: Domestic Trade, Co-operatives and Consumerism Ministry enforcement director Datuk Mohd Roslan Mahayudin (centre) giving a press conference on the raids which yielded luxury vehicles and cash. Despite the crackdown by the authorities, investors continue to patronise M Mall, which is operated by MBI.

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Invest early for your golden years

Many procrastinate on starting a retirement fund thinking there is still a long way to go to retirement age. However, they fail to realise the effects of inflation on their retirement funds. To ensure you have enough time to build a stress-free retirement, here are some reasons you should start saving while you are young.

• Financial independence – As the saying goes, “Sikit-sikit lama-lama jadi bukit.” When it comes to investing your savings, the earlier you start, the greater the accumulated returns on your original investment thanks to compound yield. By investing consistently and regularly, you will be able to secure yourself a comfortable retirement without having to depend on others. Work towards accumulating enough to cover the cost of your basic necessities, lifestyle expenses and occasional splurge on luxuries.

• Saving is a good habit to develop – If you start saving for your future from a younger age, you will find that it becomes second nature. It will be easier to put aside some money for retirement. It helps to start with small amounts, especially for young adults who are just entering the workforce, so it is not as overwhelming. How you manage your paycheck will determine how you save for the rest of your earning years. A person who is used to saving on a monthly basis will find it easier to set aside 10% of her salary for retirement as opposed to an individual who is not used to spending her money prudently.

• Gain control over your future – When you set aside money for your retirement, remember that you are shaping your future. This is a task no one else will perform for you or push you to do. By saving consistently, you are ensuring that you are well prepared for any outcome when you leave the workforce. With sufficient savings, you will most likely be able to live your dream lifestyle even during your retirement years – promising you the peace of mind of a secure financial future.

Steps to successful retirement planning

Building a substantial sum for your retirement nest egg can be easy and painless if you start investing early and regularly. Public Mutual’s Direct Debit Authorisation facility allows you to invest regularly while employing the Ringgit Cost Averaging strategy.

Not only that, you can enjoy tax relief of up to RM3,000 per annum if you contribute to the Private Retirement Scheme (PRS) fund. PRS contributions are creditor-protected. Public Mutual’s PRS contributors can also enjoy a free insurance or Takaful coverage of up to RM100,000, subject to terms and conditions.

To cater to diversified investors’ needs and investment objectives, Public Mutual offers six PRS core funds and three non-core funds, which make a great pool of funds for investors to choose from. Young investors who have long-term investment horizons can consider investing in PRS non-core funds, which can yield better potential returns in the long term.

For more financial tips and investment guidance, visit instagram.com/invest_with_public_mutual

Disclaimer:

These articles are prepared solely for educational and awareness purposes and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe to products offered by Public Mutual. No representation or warranty is made by Public Mutual, nor is there acceptance of any responsibility or liability as to the accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information contained herein.

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Fitch affirms Malaysia’s rating at A- with stable outlook, but heed the economic warning

Fitch Ratings

KUALA LUMPUR: Fitch Ratings has affirmed Malaysia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A-' with a Stable Outlook.

According to a statement posted on the interantional rating agency's website on Thursday the key rating drivers were its strong and broad-based medium-term growth with a diversified export base.

However, it also was concerned about its high public debt and some lagging structural factor.

Main points:

* GDP to grow at 4.4% in 2019 and 4.5% in 2020

* Global trade tensions to impact economy

* Private consumption to hold up well, public investment to pick up

* Outlook for private investment is more uncertain

* Weak fiscal position relative to peers weighs on the credit profile

* General government debt to fall from 62.5% of GDP in 2019 to 59.3% in 2021

* Malaysia relatively vulnerable to shifts in external investor sentiment

* Fitch expects another 25bp rate cut in 2020 on the back of continued external and domestic uncertainty.

* Banking sector fundamentals remain broadly stable

Fitch said Malaysia's ratings balance strong and broad-based medium-term growth with a diversified export base, against high public debt and some lagging structural factors, such as weak governance indicators relative to peers.

The latter may gradually improve with ongoing government efforts to enhance transparency and address high-profile corruption cases.

Fitch expects economic growth to slightly decelerate in the rest of this year as a result of a worsening

external environment, but to hold up well at 4.4% in 2019 and 4.5% in 2020.

Malaysia is a small open economy that is integrated into Asian supply chains, but it also has a well-diversified export base, which helps cushion the impact from a potential fall in demand in specific sectors.

Global trade tensions are likely to have a detrimental effect on Malaysia's economy, as with many other countries, but this may be partially offset by near-term mitigating factors, such as trade diversion, in particular towards the electronics sector.

Private consumption is likely to hold up well and public investment should pick up again in the next few years after the successful renegotiation of some big infrastructure projects, most prominently the East Coast Rail Link.

However, the outlook for private investment is more uncertain. FDI inflows were strong in the past few quarters, but investors will continue to face both external trade and domestic political uncertainty.

The Pakatan Harapan coalition took office in May 2018 with very high expectations. It has set a number of policy initiatives in motion, but holds only a small majority in parliament and has seen its previously high public approval rates fall significantly.

Uncertainty about the timing and details of the succession of the 94-year old Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad also continues to linger.

A weak fiscal position relative to peers weighs on the credit profile. The government's repeal of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and replacement with the Sales and Service Tax (SST) soon after it took power has undermined fiscal consolidation.

The government aims to offset the revenue loss through measures to strengthen compliance, the introduction of a sugar tax and an increased stamp duty. Its fiscal deficit target for 2019 of 3.4% of GDP, which we believe will be met, includes a special dividend from Petroliam Nasional Berhad (PETRONAS, A-/Stable).

Political pressures and growth headwinds could motivate the government to increase its current spending, but we believe that if it does so, it would seek additional revenues or asset sales to contain the associated rises in the deficit and public debt.

Fitch estimates general government debt to gradually decrease from 62.5% of GDP in 2019 to 59.3% in 2021.

The debt figures used by Fitch include officially reported "committed government guarantees" on loans, which are serviced by the government budget, and 1MDB's net debt, equivalent at end-2018 to 9.2% and 2.2% of GDP, respectively.

The government guaranteed another 9.2% of GDP in loans it does not service. The greater clarity provided by the government last year on contingent liabilities negatively influenced the debt ratios, but this is partly offset by the improved fiscal transparency.

Significant asset sales, as intended by the government, could result in a swifter decline in the debt stock than its forecast in its base case.

Progress in implementing reforms that institutionalise improved governance standards through stronger checks and balances, and greater transparency and accountability would strengthen Malaysia's business environment and credit profile.

The World Bank's governance indicator is still low at the 61st percentile compared with the 'A' category median of 76th.

An important change is that all public projects are now being tendered, which increases transparency, creates a level-playing field and should bring down project costs. Prosecution of high-profile cases may also help reduce corruption levels over time.

Malaysia has been running annual current account surpluses for the past 20 years, and Fitch expects it to continue to do so in the next few years, even though the surplus is likely to narrow to below 2% of GDP.

Foreign-reserve buffers were US$102.7 billion (4.7 months of current account payments) at end-June 2019, while other external assets are also significant, including from sovereign wealth fund Khazanah.

Malaysia is nonetheless relatively vulnerable to shifts in external investor sentiment, partly because of still-high foreign holdings of domestic government debt, although these have fallen to 21% from 33% three years ago.

Moreover, short-term external debt is high relative to reserves, although a significant part of this constitutes intra-group borrowing between parent and subsidiary banks domestically and abroad, reflecting the open and regional nature of Malaysia's banking sector.

Monetary policy is likely to remain supportive of economic activity, after Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) reduced its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% last May, which seemed a pre-emptive response to increased external downside risk.

Inflationary pressures are limited with headline inflation at 0.2% in May 2019, still low due to the repeal of the GST and lower domestic fuel prices.

Fitch expects another 25bp rate cut in 2020 on the back of continued external and domestic uncertainty.

Banking sector fundamentals remain broadly stable. Elevated, but slightly declining household debt at 83% of GDP and property-sector

weakness should be manageable for the sector, but present a downside risk in case of a major economic shock.

The sector's healthy capital and liquidity buffers, as indicated by the common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.4% and liquidity coverage ratio of 155% at end-May 2019, help to underpin its resilience in times of stress.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) and QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Malaysia a score equivalent to a rating of 'BBB+' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR scale.

In accordance with its rating criteria, Fitch's sovereign rating committee decided not to adopt the score indicated by the SRM as the starting point for its analysis because it considers it likely that the one-notch drop in the score to 'BBB+' since March 2018 will prove temporary.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LT FC IDR.

Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The main factors that, individually or collectively, could trigger positive rating action are:

* Greater confidence in a sustained reduction in general government debt over the medium term.

* An improvement in governance standards relative to peers, for instance through greater transparency and control of corruption.

The main factors that could trigger negative rating action are:

* Limited progress in debt reduction, for instance due to insufficient fiscal consolidation or further crystallisation of contingent liabilities.

* A lack of improvement in governance standards

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

* The global economy and oil price perform broadly in line with Fitch's Global Economic Outlook (June 2019). Fitch forecasts Brent oil to average USD65 per barrel in 2019, USD62.5 in 2020 and USD60 in 2021.

The full list of rating actions is as follows:

Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR affirmed at 'A-';

Outlook Stable

Long-Term Local-Currency IDR affirmed at 'A-';

Outlook Stable

Short-Term Foreign-Currency IDR affirmed at 'F1'

Short-Term Local-Currency IDR affirmed at 'F1'

Country Ceiling affirmed at 'A'

Issue ratings on long-term senior unsecured local-currency bonds affirmed at 'A-'

Issue ratings on global sukuk trust certificates issued by Malaysia Sukuk Global Berhad affirmed at 'A-'

But heed of Fitch’s economic warning

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Malaysia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'A-' with a Stable Outlook.

The international Fitch Ratings has given us a warning on the outlook for the Malaysian economy, which we should not ignore.

In preparing for the 2020 Budget, the government’s economic and financial planners should take heed of this friendly warning and act sooner rather than later. We should not let this warning pass, without having more consultations with Fitch, on how serious their constructive criticism could turn out to be.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Malaysia’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at A-, with a stable outlook. But we must seriously take note of the several reservations that Fitch has made, and consider and monitor them, to remain on even keel and progress further.

What are these warnings?

High public debt

The national debt is now confirmed by Fitch to be high. By whatever standard of measurement used – by us, the IMF or the World Bank and other agencies – there is now consensus that our debt is indeed high, although still not critical.

However, the debt has to be watched closely. We have to ensure better management of our budget expenditures and strive to strengthen our budget revenues, to reduce the pressure to borrow more in the short to medium term.

Some lagging structural factors

The structural factors would refer to our need to raise productivity, increase our competitiveness and meritocracy and strengthen our successes, in combating corruption and cronyism.

How far have we advanced to deal effectively with these longstanding structural issues? In the minds of our foreign and even domestic investors, how successful have we been compared to the previous regime?

Fitch expects the economy to slow down to 4.4% this year and 4.5% in 2020. With the US -China trade war looming large and the general world economic uncertainty, investors can get even more jittery and hold back their investment plans. Thus, the low economic growth rates for this year and ahead should not be ruled out.

If the economy softens further to around 4% per annum, the implications of unemployment, and especially for our graduates, could be worrisome. The small and medium businesses and farmers and fishermen and smallholders in our plantation industries could suffer much from any slowdown.

But we are still slow and are struggling in trying to restructure the economy. We have not yet adopted major changes of transformation of the economy, which is largely raced-based to the vital requirement, to become more needs-based in our policies and implementation.

We need a New Economic Model but it has been difficult to adopt it as soon as possible.

Weak governance relative to peers

To be fair, many measures have been taken to strengthen the institutions of government. We have seen this in the parliament select committees, the Election Commission, the MACC and the civil service and other institutions.

We cannot do too much too soon, as good governance takes much longer to restore and build, after several decades of neglect in the past. But our people and investors are somewhat impatient for more rapid changes for better governance.

Fitch has, however, subtly warned us to compare our “weak governance relative to our peers”. Thus, we have to take note of the more rapid progress made by our neighbouring countries in Asean, like Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia and, of course, Singapore, to measure our real success in good governance.

Investors have the whole world to choose from, to put their money where their mouth is. They also need not look at the comfortable physical climate and tax incentives alone to be attracted to invest in Malaysia.

Racial harmony, religious understanding and political stability are also major considerations for both domestic and foreign investors and professionals. This is where the reduction of the brain drain is important. But we continue to have strong outflows of brain power, which is debilitating.

Fitch warns that the PH government holds only a small majority in Parliament and has seen its previously high public approval rates fall significantly. Fitch’s assessment is quite correct. This has been due to too much politicking and allegation of sex scandals. All this does not give confidence to investors and even consumers who will be dampened in their enthusiasm to increase consumption and investment.

Fitch Ratings has subtly and politely warned us of the challenges we are facing. It has also emphasised in its usual guarded fashion the essential need for us to take heed of their advice and warnings, to make the necessary socio-economic and political adjustments, changes and even transformation, without undue delays.

We could face a real slowdown all round if we don’t consolidate our strengths to overcome our lingering weaknesses to forge ahead for a better Malaysia in the future – for all Malaysians.

By Tan Sri Ramon Navaratnam, chairman of the Asli Centre for Public Policy.

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