Check your risk appetite and start investing as this is as good a time as any to invest in real estate be they physical assets, property stocks or real estate investment trusts (REITs).
Industry experts held this view during a panel discussion entitled “Where to put your money – real estate, stocks or REITs?” at The Edge Investment Forum on Real Estate 2016 (REIF 2016) on April 30.
For housebuyers especially, this is a good time to buy as the market correction which started last year will continue this year, said panellist Sunway Bhd managing director of the property development division for Malaysia and Singapore Sarena Cheah.
She said the banking sector is well-capitalised while non-performing loans are declining, which means borrowers still have the ability to service their loans.
Cheah noted that property prices have been on the uptrend for the past 10 years with an average capital appreciation of 8% to 9% from 2005 to 2015, buoyed by a healthy employment rate and low interest rate.
“Property price growth for 2015 had dipped 2% compared with 2014, but the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of capital appreciation had achieved 12%,” she shared.
“Property investment is a safe investment as it is one of the basic necessities. Strong demand will continue to support the capital appreciation of properties,” she added.
However, she advised investors to study the location, the developer and the future growth potential of a property or project before buying.
Also on the panel were Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd head of equity research Sarah Lim and Axis REIT Managers Bhd chief executive officer and finance director Leong Kit May. The Edge Communications Sdn Bhd and The Edge Property Sdn Bhd managing director Au Foong Yee was the moderator.
Lim expected property prices to plateau for the next few years before the next upcycle.
“The big rally in transaction volume and prices in 2010 to 2012 was supported by the baby boomers who were in their late 30s or early 40s. The next upcycle will depend on the next generation which would be the Millennials,” she explained.
In the near term, Kenanga Investment Bank has placed an “underweight” rating on the property sector as it expected property stocks to be volatile and eventually be range-bound due to the absence of catalysts, while earnings risks remain.
However, steady defensive big-cap players such as UOA Bhd and S P Setia Bhd have light balance sheets and high exposure to areas in the Klang Valley while Sunway Bhd and Eco World Development Group Bhd are worth looking at, she said.
Among the small to mid-capital players to look out for is Hua Yang Bhd – it is undervalued and has high yields.
Lim also noted that Malaysia’s residential supply is outpacing demand in the wrong segment as there is insufficient supply for residential properties priced between RM250,000 and RM500,000.
“Residential developments priced below RM500,000 constitute less than 35% of most developers’ upcoming projects,” she said.
Meanwhile, REITs could be the cornerstone of a portfolio of quality assets for investors who are looking for lower risk and stable income from rental properties.
“A REIT is a listed vehicle that invests in a portfolio of income-generating properties. Rents collected from tenants, less expenses, are distributed on a regular basis to provide stable yields to unit holders,” said Leong.
She noted that the current dividend yield for Malaysian REITs is at 6.69%, compared to fixed deposits which is at 3.31% and the Employees Provident Fund’s yield of 6.40%.
“The benefits of investing in REITs include the predictability in income stream in the form of distribution income, having a liquid proxy to physical property investment, transparent daily pricing, high level of disclosures and transparency, low entry cost and professional management,” she added.
On the future performance of MREITs, Leong said the company foresees no future interest hikes which augurs well for REITs as a higher interest may affect the trust companies’ ability to pay higher dividends. - The Edge Property.
Apr 9, 2016 ... High cost under new law may affect property investors ... Aug 17, 2015 . ...
Property prices will hold . ... Oil Prices: What's Behind the Drop?
Mar 21, 2016 ... It's the same story with oil prices. Do not expect the coast to be completely clear –
for example no more excess inventories, oil demand...
Apr 6, 2016 ... Some think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a price that
was pretty much the norm over the last decade. Credit Michael..
Jan 29, 2016 ... Other countries too, are affected by the uncertainties,” he said, adding the drastic
decline in world crude oil prices had a significant effect on
A formation of the Nanhai Fleet of China's Navy on Saturday finished a three-day patrol of the Nansha islands in the South China Sea.
The Philippine presidential election on May 9, arguably the most contentious in decades, will see a new leader assume power because incumbent President Benigno Aquino III is barred from seeking re-election. Since Aquino is responsible for the souring of Beijing-Manila relations by endorsing Washington's "rebalancing to Asia-Pacific" policy over the past six years, the world is waiting to see what the new Philippine government's China policy will be.
Backed by the United States, the Aquino government has constantly sought to challenge China over the South China Sea issue, which, however, has proved to be a fool's errand.
To begin with, Manila's attempt to confront Beijing over its Huangyan Island has failed.
To maintain relations with the Philippines, however, China has exercised exemplary restraint in the island dispute. And the Philippines was expected to reciprocate the gesture for the sake of bilateral ties, which Aquino has long refused.
Encouraged by Washington, Manila sent military vessels to harass Chinese fishing boats and fishermen operating in waters off Huangyan Island in 2012, triggering a two-month confrontation with China's surveillance ships. This prompted Beijing to strengthen its presence on the island, leaving no scope for Manila to encroach upon the Chinese territory.
Thanks to the Aquino administration's accommodative policy, US troops, which the Philippine people fought strenuously to get rid of, are back in the country and will be stationed at five military bases.
Seeking Washington's protection might not be a good move for Manila－it could even be counter-productive－because Philippine soldiers, despite being equipped and trained according to US standards, have not been able to defeat the poorly-equipped anti-government forces.
By selling its Hamilton-class cutters and other advanced weapons to the Philippines, Washington is strengthening its military alliance with Manila.
But the Philippines should realize that it is just a piece on the US chessboard. The US may make use of the Philippines to meddle in the waters of the South China Sea, but it will never get involved if it leads to open confrontation between China and the Philippines. Should a serious conflict break out between Beijing and Manila over the South China Sea issue, which is about China's maritime sovereignty, Washington might prefer to watch from the sidelines because it does not concern the US' core interests.
Manila's provocations such as those around the Huangyan Island and the filing of an arbitration case in its dispute with China in the South China Sea, have a lot to do with the deteriorating bilateral relations, which have dealt a heavy blow to their trade and commercial cooperation.
As such, the incoming Philippine government should recalibrate its China policy.
But the prospects for that do not look encouraging, because the US is likely to take steps to ensure the new Philippine administration keeps serving its "rebalancing to Asia-Pacific" policy.
On the one hand, Washington is expected to ramp up its military aid to Manila in the next five years. On the other, in an attempt to hype up China's legal construction on its South China Sea islands, the US flew six of its military planes through the international airspace near Huangyan Island last month, injecting more uncertainties into China-Philippines ties.
The Aquino government has been trying to justify its hawkish stance on the South China Sea issue and urging the incoming leadership to follow the same policy. Worse, its anti-China propaganda has seriously affected domestic opinion, as more Philippine citizens now seem to distrust China.
Given these facts, the new Philippine administration should take appropriate measures to improve Beijing-Manila ties and seek peaceful solution to bilateral disputes without becoming an expendable part of Washington's Asia-Pacific maneuver.
By CHEN QINGHONG (China Daily)
The author is a researcher in Southeast Asian studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.
China has sound reasons to reject South China Sea arbitration
An aerial photo taken on Sept. 25, 2015 from a seaplane of Hainan Maritime Safety Administration shows the Yacheng 13-1 drilling rig during a patrol in South China Sea.(Xinhua file photo/Zhao Yingquan)
CCTV have talked to Victor Gao, the Director of the China
National Association of International Studies. He says whatever the
ruling is, the end result may be the opposite of what the Philippine
government wants http://t.cn/RqEfUgE
http://english.cctv.com/2016/05/06/VIDEiXOWX2qORs4PH2OlXKHk160506.shtml
The Philippines' unilateral attempt at arbitration over South China Sea disputes is not a real attempt to find a solution, but pursuit of selfish gains in the name of "rule of law."
The core of the Beijing-Manila South China Sea dispute is territorial issue, caused by the illegal occupation of some of China's islands and reefs since the 1970s by the Philippines, and the issue of maritime delimitation.
The arbitration violates the basic principles of international law and undermines the integrity and authority of the UN Convention on the Law of Sea (UNCLOS).
The court has no right to adjudicate on the case as in 2006, China exercised its right under Article 298 of the UNCLOS and made a declaration excluding compulsory arbitration on disputes concerning maritime delimitation.
The UN Charter and international law advocate peaceful settlement of disputes through dialogue and negotiation. The UNCLOS respects the dispute settlement procedure chosen by the parties themselves.
Meanwhile, the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), signed by China and ASEAN countries, stipulates that disputes be resolved through consultation and negotiation by those directly concerned.
Therefore, China has sound reasons to reject compulsory arbitration. Whatever the result of the arbitration, it will not be binding on China.
The Philippines has distorted and abused the international arbitration mechanism, and reneged on its promise to solve disputes through negotiation.
It is also an outright lie to say that "all bilateral tools have been exhausted."
China and the Philippines have conducted several rounds of consultations on building trust, managing disputes and promoting maritime cooperation and, during these occasions, the Philippines has never talked with China about any of the appeals it mentioned in the arbitration case.
As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pointed out, attempts to pressure China over an arbitration of maritime disputes is "either political arrogance or legal prejudice."
It doesn't hold water to say that filing for an arbitration is upholding international law, while not accepting arbitration violates international law. This is not viable in international practice .- Xinhua
Related:
China rebukes U.S. official's criticism on South China Sea arbitration
BEIJING, April 29 (Xinhua) -- A Chinese spokesperson on Friday
rebuked U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken's remarks on the
impending "arbitration" of the South China Sea issue, saying the United States is in no position to criticize China.
On Thursday, Blinken told a House of Representatives hearing in
Washington that China "can't have it both ways," by being a party to the
convention but rejecting its provisions, including "the binding nature
of any arbitration decision." Full story
Backgrounder: "Geng Lu Book," encyclopedia on South China Sea
BEIJING, May 1 (Xinhua) -- The "Geng Lu Book," a historic book
written between China's Ming Dynasty (AD 1368-1644) and Qing Dynasty (AD
1644-1911), begins with a few sentences outlining an accurate maritime
navigation route of ancient Chinese fishermen sailing from the Tan Men
port of China's Hainan Province to the South China Sea.
The origin of the "Geng Lu Book" could date back to the early Ming
Dynasty. The book records names of more than 100 locations in and
important maritime information about the South China Sea, including
sailing directions, time, distance, islands and submerged reefs, as well
as sea current speeds and weather changes. Full story
Backgrounder: China has indisputable sovereignty over South China Sea islands
BEIJING, April 29 (Xinhua) -- The Philippines, distorting and partially applying the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), attempts to challenge China's sovereignty over the Nansha Islands.
In its unilaterally-initiated arbitration, the Philippines argues
that low-tide elevations and submerged reefs are part of the exclusive
economic zone and continental shelf, a claim that totally runs contrary
to historical fact, reality and international law. Full story
Historical documents record China’s sovereignty in South China Sea
Taiwan Republic of China (ROC) President Ma visits Taiping Island
http://english.president.gov.tw/Default.aspx?tabid=491&itemid=36718&rmid=2355
Office of the President, ROC (Taiwan) ... See us on. youtube. flickr ... After arriving at Taiping Island, President Ma first heard a briefing at the Nansha Command and ... a speech explaining the purpose of his visit and his hope for peace in the South China Sea. ... Office of the President, Republic of China (Taiwan)
Mar 3, 2016 ... Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hong Lei made the remarks at a daily press
conference in response to a Philippine media report that said...
Feb 21, 2016 ... Foreign Minister Wang Yi says China's rejection of arbitration filed by the
Philippines over terroritorial claims, is in line with the law. His remarks ...
Mar 2, 2016 ... Marker stones and light houses were on the islands but most were destroyed by
Vietnam and the Philippines. Even early European records...
Apr 4, 2014 ... Chinese tourists abducted by Philippine terrorists, to sour ties with China?
PERTH: Malaysia is not ruling out the possibility that the latest ...
Jun 19, 2014 ... The truth about the South China Sea disputes: Vietnam and Philippine hyping up
tensions. Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi (left) shakes...
May 15, 2014 ... The Philippines detained 11 Chinese fishermen for unverifiable crime after
seizing their vessel near China's Half Moon Shoal in the South...
Mar 2, 2013 ... SABAH STANDOFF, invaders from the Philippines shoot dead! At least 14 people
have reportedly been killed, after Malaysian police ended a ...
Mar 17, 2013 ... The Republic of the Philippines has no claim to Sabah of its own. The on-off
claim, originating from Sulu sovereignty made by certain quarters,...
Nov 18, 2015 ... The suspense is to what extent the US will foist the South China Sea ... Last week
Philippines President Benigno Aquino III assured visiting...
SAN FRANCISCO — Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? For many in the tech world, the identity of bitcoin's elusive creator has been a long-running parlor game. And the speculation might not be over.
Australian entrepreneur Craig Steven Wright, who announced Monday that he founded the digital currency , convinced at least one longtime bitcoin contributor that he's the real deal. He managed that feat via a technical demonstration involving Nakamoto's secret bitcoin keys. But Wright's public documentation, which he posted online Monday , underwhelmed others and left the question of Nakamoto's true identity far from settled.
"There's no way you can conclusively prove that you are the creator of bitcoin," said Jerry Brito, executive director of Coin Center, a Washington, D.C.-based crypto-currency think tank, who is skeptical of Wright's claims.
Tracking a pseudonymous cryptographic genius would be challenging under the best circumstances. And here we're talking someone who invented a way for people to send money around the world anonymously, without banks or national currencies. Someone who apparently disappeared five years ago for unknown reasons.
None of that has stopped people from trying. Journalists, researchers and amateur detectives have scoured Nakamoto's emails and online posts, plus the original bitcoin code, for unusual phrases, cultural references and other potential clues to their author.
One of the most celebrated candidates — to his own dismay — was an unassuming Japanese-American engineer who found himself in the cross-hairs of Newsweek magazine in 2014.
Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto was wrongly identified as the inventor of Bitcoin in 2014
A Newsweek cover story fingered Dorian Satoshi Nakamoto, a retired resident of suburban Los Angeles County, after citing circumstantial clues and a vague comment that Nakamoto made when confronted briefly on his front doorstep. The article sparked a media frenzy and a car chase with reporters that ended at the Los Angeles offices of The Associated Press — where Dorian Nakamoto emphatically denied any involvement with bitcoin.
An earlier contender named in a 2011 New Yorker magazine piece was Michael Clear, then a graduate student in cryptography at Trinity College in Dublin. The New Yorker cited some of Nakamoto's writings, which used British slang such as "maths" for mathematics and "flat" for an apartment. It also noted that Clear had worked on currency-trading software for an Irish bank and co-authored a paper on "peer-to-peer" technology similar to that used in bitcoin.
At first, according to the New Yorker, Clear was evasive when asked at a cryptography conference if he had created bitcoin. But he later denied it repeatedly. He also suggested another candidate to the New Yorker reporter, naming Finnish researcher Vili Lehdonvirta, who studied virtual currencies and created video games.
"I would love to say that I'm Satoshi, because bitcoin is very clever," Lehdonvirta told the New Yorker, after laughing for several seconds. "But it's not me."
Speculation has also focused on a Hungarian-American computer scientist named Nick Szabo, who was called a likely candidate by linguistic experts who conducted their own "reverse textual analysis" — essentially, looking for distinctive phrases or word patterns — on an early white paper by the bitcoin creator.
The only problem? Szabo, who has worked on other digital currencies, has repeatedly denied creating bitcoin.
Other scientists' names have surfaced over the years; some theories pose the notion of two or three working together. But denials have usually followed each new mention.
At one point, two Israeli mathematicians floated, and later retracted, the notion that bitcoin was created by the founder of Silk Road, an online bazaar known for trade in various illicit goods.
Conspiracy theorists have even speculated it could have been the work of some shadowy government agency — no one's saying which government — to undermine established currencies or somehow monitor online transactions. (That theory depends on the unproved notion that the creator retained the ability to decode bitcoin's encryption.)
Vice magazine once suggested Nakamoto might be Gavin Andresen, an American software expert and early bitcoin enthusiast who has helped push bitcoin forward in Nakamoto's absence. Andresen has denied it — and on Monday declared that he believes Wright is Nakamoto.
But other cryptocurrency enthusiasts aren't convinced it's Wright. The truth, they say, is still out there. - AP
Indeed, the way Wright has stage-managed the latest revelations about himself seem inconsistent with what we know about Nakamoto. Wright chose to give his scoop to the BBC, the Economist, and GQ. These are all excellent publications, but none of them are known for their in-depth coverage of computer security. The real Satoshi Nakamoto should have anticipated that no one would give much weight to a GQ scoop about his identity.
Bitcoin was Nakamoto's attempt to create a financial system that didn't require trusting the fallible human beings that run the banking system. Yet when Wright decided to reveal his identity as Nakamoto, he chose to do it via face-to-face meetings with a handful of journalists and Bitcoin insiders instead of providing mathematically rigorous proof that anyone could verify. It's hard to believe that's what Nakamoto would have done.
Aug 25, 2015 ... Tokyo (AFP) - The arrest of MtGox boss Mark Karpeles has begun to shed light
on the defunct Bitcoin exchange after hundreds of millions of ...
Mar 30, 2014 ... Over the last month, two major Bitcoin exchanges in Japan and Canada have
gone offline, filed for bankruptcy or closed down after claiming ...
Apr 14, 2014 ... In fact, the actual creator of Bitcoin itself has been shrouded in mystery —
although credited to Satoshi Nakamoto, the name is believed to be a ...
Jan 12, 2014 ... Singapore's central bank is stepping up its anti-money laundering ... MAS made it
a crime last July for clients to use financial institutions to evade tax. ... it was
scrutinising trade in virtual currencies such as Bitcoin as well as ...
In an interview with the South China Morning Post, Alibaba founder Jack Ma shares his views on the Chinese economy and the importance of entrepreneurship in supporting development.
CHINA’S economy will face “a difficult three to five years” but the slowdown will be good for its long-term development, Alibaba executive chairman Jack Ma told the South China Morning Post (SCMP) just before the e-commerce giant’s takeover of the 113-year-old newspaper.
Ma said the Chinese economy was indeed grappling with structural problems and that the authorities were working hard to steer it onto a new growth path.
But he dismissed fears that China would follow Japan’s route to stagnation, saying the country still had huge potential waiting to be tapped.
The rapid growth of China’s Internet economy and consumer culture could help the country through its temporary difficulties, Ma said.
China would likely continue to grow at a rate “enviable to most other major economies for 15 to 20 more years”, he said.
Ma gave the two-hour interview in Hangzhou, eastern Zhejiang province, during which he also discussed his vision for the SCMP, cultural differences between the east and west, and his concerns for Hong Kong’s next generation.
Commercial and residential buildings in Guangzhou, Guangdong province.
China’s economy has been grappling with structural problems but Beijing is working hard to steer it onto a new growth path.
On China’s economy, the businessman said it was unrealistic to expect an economy of such scale to maintain double-digit growth indefinitely.
“There is no reason to expect that an economy of such size can maintain such a growth rate indefinitely, nor is it good for China to continue to grow at such speed,” Ma said.
“After more than 30 years’ growth, spending a few years to adjust its course is reasonable.
“Some say the actual (growth) number could be just 5%. But even with 5% growth, there is no other economy of such size growing at that speed in today’s world.”
Comparing China with an ocean liner, Ma said the Chinese leadership understood that the country’s old growth model was unsustainable and that they needed to chart a new course.
“It is easy for a small boat to change its course. But as the world’s second-largest economy, China is like an ocean liner... we have to choose either to not slow down and overturn the ship, or to slow a bit to make the turn,” he said.
The key was to create enough jobs to keep the economy stable and buy time so the country could complete its much-needed transformation, Ma said.
Fortunately for China, he said, the rise of its Internet economy happened at the right time.
China’s gross domestic product grows 6.7% in first quarter – a good start to 2016
“The traditional industries are struggling, but we also see growth in domestic consumption, the services industry and the hi-tech sector, and young talents are flocking to these areas,” he said.
“The logistics and delivery industries create plenty of jobs for low-skilled workers. We still have a lot of room for growth.”
Ma said the deciding factor in a true economic transformation would be the country’s ability to unleash the entrepreneurial spirit among the young and create an environment to help it flourish.
“I believe there will be some great enterprises arising from China,” he said.
“The monetary policy and supply-side reforms are very important and can help rejuvenate China’s economy.
“But to me, the most important thing is entrepreneurship. If this can flourish in China, China will become successful.”
China’s slowdown had triggered panic among foreign investors, with some choosing to leave the country.
But this actually created fresh opportunities, Ma said.
History had proven that those who bucked the trend to invest in China during difficult times always received good returns, he added.
“China needs to develop its rural areas; China needs to develop its cultural industry. It is also shifting focus to services and IT industries. There are still plenty of opportunities around,” Ma said.
In the second part of an interview with SCMP, Ma says he envisions the newspaper to leverage on Alibaba’s technology and resources.
JUST why does Jack Ma want to own a newspaper, and what will he do with it?
Those are the biggest questions that have confronted readers of the South China Morning Post (SCMP) since news broke of Alibaba Group’s acquisition of the 113-year-old English-language newspaper late last year.
Now, for the first time since the Chinese e-commerce giant’s takeover earlier this month, Ma has outlined his vision for the newspaper.
The acquisition has raised eyebrows, with some suggesting that the SCMP – which has for decades been reporting aggressively on China – would change its direction.
A few even believed the newspaper might henceforth gloss over sensitive or controversial issues that risked incurring the wrath of the Chinese leadership.
In a face-to-face interview with the SCMP in Hangzhou, eastern Zhejiang province, Ma addressed these concerns, explaining why he believed in having a narrative on China that was different from that of both the mainstream Western media and Chinese state media.
“I don’t see it as an issue of (coverage) being ‘positive or negative’,” the Alibaba executive chairman said. “It is about being impartial and balanced... We should offer a fair chance to readers (to understand what is happening in China), not just a fair chance to China.”
China’s growth will remain enviable for the next 20 years, says Ma.
As a reader, Ma said, he valued the importance of obtaining unbiased information in order to draw his own conclusion based on the undistorted facts presented to him.
“I believe the most important thing for the media is to be objective, fair and balanced. We should not report a story with preconceptions or prejudice,” he said.
With its access to Alibaba’s resources, data and all the relationships in its ecosystem, the SCMP can report on Asia and China more accurately compared with other media who have no such access.
“Sometimes, people look at things purely from a Western or an Eastern perspective – that is one-sided. What the SCMP can do is to understand the big ‘why’ behind a story and its cultural context.
“I want to stress the importance of being fair to our readers. You should not impose your own view and prejudice on the readers and try to lead them to a conclusion. As a reader, I understand what a fair report is.”
The tech tycoon said his vision was to transform the SCMP into a global media agency with the help of Alibaba’s technology and resources.
Alibaba, the world’s biggest online trading platform, is aggressively developing big-data and cloud technology. Every day, it analyses and processes a massive volume of data that can provide powerful insight into the world’s second largest economy.
Ma reiterated his promise that Alibaba’s management would not take part in the SCMP’s newsroom operations. Rather, it wanted to represent readers’ interests and give feedback on how to improve readers’ experience, he said.
“As I said to Joe (Tsai), you are going to the SCMP as a representative of its readers. You don’t have to represent shareholders. You speak for the readers,” Ma said, referring to Alibaba’s executive vice-chairman who is now the chairman of the SCMP.
Ma, who last year unveiled a HK$1bil fund to help Hong Kong’s young entrepreneurs start up their businesses, said he invested in the newspaper because he “loves Hong Kong”.
Hong Kong was stuck in a rut and in danger of losing its direction, the billionaire said, urging Hong Kong’s youth to hold on to the city’s uniqueness and have faith in its future.
“The city has lost its can-do spirit. The big businesses are less willing to take risks. I talked to some young people in Hong Kong and they said they are lost. Young people indeed have fewer opportunities than before. But is it true that there are no more opportunities for them? No!” he said.
Hong Kong had many strengths that were unique to the city, Ma said.
“It has the best location. The ‘one country, two systems’ allows it to enjoy the good things from China’s growth and the best things from the West... The quality of Hong Kong’s graduates can match the finest from any other city. Its services industry is first class,” he said.
“Hong Kong people say Hong Kong needs to preserve its uniqueness. I say Hong Kong’s uniqueness is in its diversity, its tolerance of difference cultures... China does not want to see Hong Kong in decline. I have full confidence in its future.” – SCMP
Mass migration: The mega-trend of global migration, which is already happening legally in the form of migrant workers and illegally in the form of economic and political refugees, especially into Europe, is going to disrupt the current order. – AFP
A VERY wise Latin American statesman remarked at the Emerging Markets Forum in Paris this month, quoting the Nobel Laureate writer Octavio La Paz that after the French Revolution, the 19th century was all about the search for liberty, the 20th century about equality and the 21st century should be about fraternity.
The concept of liberty and individual freedom was sparked by the French Revolution but it became embodied in the American constitution that individual freedom was almost absolute in its right. Before then, rights were communal and determined by the state, or at least by an elite. With the rise of American might, the primacy of individual rights became widespread, because it appealed to the individual ego and the right for self determination. But man does not exist alone – he lives in a community in which rights come with responsibility – self-respect must also be tempered with respect for others.
The 20th century was a flowering of the capitalist spirit, that individual greed can lead to public good. This drove unprecedented prosperity, unfortunately unequally shared. The saving grace was the narrowing of income and wealth differences between the rich nations and the developing economies, but in almost every country, income and wealth gaps widened. This has reached the stage where views are increasingly polarised, with huge gaps in understanding between genders, generations and geo-political powers. Gandhi was the one who rightly pointed out that the world has enough for all our needs, but not our greed.
The global financial crisis of the 21st century exposed all the flaws of the dominant thinking, that the American Dream is sustainable. It was already doubtful that it could be sustainable for a few, but if the population of the world reaches 10 billion by 2050, we will be so crowded and in each other’s face and space that how to achieve fraternity without war will be the question of the century.
The World in 2050
The Emerging Markets Forum in Paris was the occasion for a book launch on “The World in 2050”, a study by various leaders, such as former German Chancellor Horst Kohler, former IMF managing director Michel Camdessus and former presidents and ministers of several emerging markets. The book, edited by former World Bank director Harinder Kohli, tried to think through the major issues of the 21st century. The major theme was essentially demographic and geographic – by 2050, the largest populated nation will be India, but the third largest could be Nigeria, with Africa emerging as the third largest continent by population and growth.
The study is timely because there are already signs that the borders that were delineated by the former colonial powers in Africa and the Middle East are already breaking down as failed states, arising from bad governance, exploding population and climate change stresses leading to civil strife, outright war and now mass migration.
This mega-trend of global migration, which is already happening legally in the form of migrant workers and illegally in the form of economic and political refugees, especially into Europe, is going to disrupt the current order. Can Europe absorb over a million migrants a year without major changes in culture, living standards and law and order?
How would these new migrants, including families that will follow, be accommodated, given already high levels of unemployment and shortage of housing in many European cities? Without proper accommodation and social acceptance, will there be more terrorist outbreaks and civil strife that disturbs the comfortable lives of Europeans today?
Even as Grexit (the possibility of Greece exiting the eurozone) has quietened down, Brexit (the possibility of Britain exiting the European Union) is becoming a looming nightmare. Whether Britain leaves or not is going to be an expression of how the British people feel about fraternity with Europe. All economic logic seems to suggest that Britain should stay. Germany needs Britain to maintain the balance of power within Europe, because British level-headed diplomacy is a useful counterweight to the more romantic (and less fiscally disciplined) southern members, such as France, Italy and Spain. There is genuine worry that the refugee crisis will make the stoic British more isolationist, preferring fraternity within the British isles.
From an Asian perspective, the stability and prosperity of Europe is an important anchor to global peace and stability. Europe is not only a major trading partner but her moderation and common sense is often a useful counterweight to American exceptionalism, whose mistaken invasion into Iraq triggered the breakdown in the Middle East order. Perhaps the status quo in the Middle East was always fragile, made more fragile by growing population, low oil prices and climate stress.
The borders of the Middle East and Africa were the legacies of the Great Game in the 19th century, when former colonial powers carved up these areas into territories that ignored tribal or geographic realities.
Today, these borders are being ignored by non-state players, and peace and order will not return till we find a solution to creating jobs in situ for the growing youth that are increasingly armed and willing to fight for their rights. Throughout history, it has always been the unemployed and disaffected youth that has led to revolution or war.
China’s One Belt One Road strategy can best be understood as a building of roads, rails and ports to link Eurasia together, creating new trade routes over old historical paths. For the first time, this will be a linking of roads and rail between China and India, and through central Asia, almost into the heart of eurozone, north to Russia and south to Africa. The investment in the infrastructure and in jobs for the young is the best hope to avoid massive social upheaval. This is the 21st Century Great Game - whether to live in fraternity or fratricide.
By Andrew Sheng writes on global issues from an Asian perspective.
Oct 7, 2014 ... Xi suggests China, C. Asia build Silk Road economic belt · Chinese ..... One of
the sections in China's report was reserved for the economic and ...
Jul 4, 2015 ...CHINA'S setting up of the AIIB (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) is a ... plus
the US$40bil Silk Road Fund for “One Belt One Road”, there is for the ... Asean
leaders do not seem to discuss strategic issues such as, now, the...
Aug 30, 2015 ... Its proposals for a Maritime Silk Road and a One Belt, One Road link to Europe
are backed by the China-Asean Maritime Cooperation Fund,...
Jun 30, 2015 ... Other Asian countries face similar problems of investment for roads, ... will use
AIIB to implement its “one- belt and one-road” regional and...
Feb 20, 2016 ... The region is adjacent to the route of China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative and
China's efforts are eliminating vulnerability caused by a lack of ...
