Sabah's watergate scandal unfolds, engineers nabbed, civil service back in vogue

  

Sabah's watergate scandal unfolds

THE amount involved in Sabah’s watergate scandal is unbelievable.

The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) seized RM114mil worth of assets –RM53.7mil in cold cash stashed in houses and office – from two senior Sabah Water Department officials on Oct 4.

The duo were investigated for alleged abuse of power and money laundering linked to contracts for RM3.3bil federal-funded projects channelled to the department since 2010. Two others – a Datuk businessman who is a brother of one of the officials and an accountant – were also arrested.

Six days later, MACC traced RM30mil stashed in foreign banks and another RM30mil in 127 land titles for housing, agriculture and commercial.

That’s not all.

MACC also seized nine vehicles worth RM2.7mil, an assortment of jewellery worth RM3.64mil and designer handbags worth RM500,000.

The following Tuesday (Oct 11), three Sabah Water Department employees “voluntarily” surrendered about RM1mil allegedly taken in the process of approving water projects under the RM3.3bil federal allocations.

When you go out of the state capital, you’ll find Sabahans depending on rivers, streams, ponds, wells or rain for their daily needs.

What do we tell M. R., a 34-year-old Rungus housewife from Kampung Bongkok in Pitas, about the Sabah Watergate?

Since she was born, she has relied on wells, rivers or ponds in the jungle to bathe, wash clothes and dishes, and on rainwater for drinking and cooking. Daily, she has to walk a few kilometres to carry 10 litres of water back to her house.

Her water woes worsen when there is no rain for weeks.

“The villagers will be suffering, especially getting water for drinking and cooking,” she said.

“What’s your comment on the Sabah watergate?” I asked.

“That’s what is heartbreaking. We have been asking for piped water for our village. But the excuse they give to us is the source of treated water in Pitas town is about 28km from our village,” she said.

“If the funds meant for water projects were used properly, we would have clean water supply for which we have waited for many decades.”

What do we tell M. J., a 37-year-old Bisayah civil servant from Kampung Sukai in Beaufort about the Sabah watergate?

There is a water pipe that runs through M. J.’s village. However, no water flows in the pipes and yet the villagers are billed for it.

“The pipes were installed in 2010. We had water for about one year and then it went dry, maybe because of leakage,” he said.

Now many villagers rely on the blue water tank they got during elections.

“When there is no rain, some of the villagers have to buy water from a town about 30km away for drinking and cooking,” he said.

“For other uses, the villagers get murky water from wells and a polluted river along a mangrove swamp.”

“What’s your comment on the Sabah watergate?” I asked.

“As a true Sabah-born I’m extremely disappointed. The people’s first call is not delivered because of greed. If only a portion of the money were distributed, the villagers would not be thirsty for the promises made by politicians.”

What do we tell N.V. H., a 49-year-old Chinese businessman from a suburb in Tawau town, about the Sabah watergate?

Once a week, there is a water cut lasting three to 12 hours in his residential area. During the previous El Nino season, there were 12-hour water cuts on alternative days for two months.

With the constant water cuts in Tawau, he had to install two 400-gallon stainless steel water tanks and pneumatic water pumps at his home. He also had to install two 100-gallon water tanks and automatic on-off water pumps at the ground floor of his shop and another 400-gallon water tank and pneumatic water pump at the first floor. The total cost is RM16,000.

N.V.H.’s household has never experienced water woes, as supplies from water tanks last for five days.

“What’s your comment on the Sabah watergate?” I asked.

“Of course I’m angry when I come across all these water scandals. But we can’t do anything about it,” he said.

What do we tell M. S., a 47-year-old Bajau Sama managing consultant from Kota Belud, about the Sabah watergate?

The shortage of clean water in his district is unexplainable, he said.

“What’s your comment on the Sabah watergate?” I asked. “There is an abundant water source from Mount Kinabalu, flowing through rivers across Kota Belud. The rivers are full of water yet it has failed to be converted into clean water,” he said.

The water supply covers about 30% of the villages in the district and the rest depend on untreated gravity water.

“Sad to say that some villages have a piping system but no water. The water department implements piping projects in every election. Yet the clean water shortage is here to stay,” he said.

I pray that the MACC’s investigation reaches to the top. And that those who are responsible will pay for their greed.

One man's meat by Philip Golingai The Star/ANN

19 engineers nabbed in probe as graft scandal widens with arrest and seizure in assets across Sabah

(File pix) The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) has nabbed 19 engineers to facilitate investigations into the Sabah Water Department’s multi-million ringgit graft scandal. Pix by Mohd Adam Arinin ; MACC held a news conference in KK where they announced and displayed a whopping haul of RM114 million worth in cash, jewellery, land grants and branded goods. — Bernama pic

KOTA KINABALU Oct 21 2016:  The Sabah Water Department graft scandal has widened, with the arrest of 19 engineers across the state and the seizure of RM7.8mil in assets, including RM4.2mil cash.

The district or divisional engineers, aged 29 to 59, were detained at 27 locations in the state as the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commis­sion (MACC) continues its probe.

Its investigations have already implicated top officials in the department in connection with the siphoning of money from RM3.3bil worth of federal allocations for state rural water projects since 2010.

The engineers were remanded for between three and seven days in Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan and Tawau after they were arrested on Wednesday.

Yesterday, MACC deputy commissioner (operations) Datuk Azam Baki said they may have been collecting as much as 27% to 30% in kickbacks from the contracts awarded. But he did not disclose the amounts involved.

He said investigators also seized procurement files and were sifting through the documents.

Asked about speculation on social media that certain top politicians were linked to the scandal, Azam said the probe was focused on civil servants at this point.

“For now our investigations do not involve any political figures in the state or at federal level.

“I am asking people not to politicise the matter and not to take advantage of the investigations for their own interest,” he added.

He said MACC officers were going through the numerous documents in detail before submitting the investigation papers to the Deputy Public Prosecutor.

“We assure everyone that our investigations will be transparent and professional,” he said.

The latest collars were a second wave to the arrests of the two top water department officials and the seizing of more than RM190mil in assets, including RM57mil cash, since Oct 4.

Apart from the officials, who have been suspended by the state government, MACC also nabbed a senior officer’s businessman brother, his accountant and an engineering adviser to the state Finance Ministry. All were released early this week.

The officials were alleged to have abused their powers by awarding contracts to 38 companies owned by their families or cronies, to siphon off the federal funds.

MACC investigators were also looking into suspected money laundering as they try to recover some RM30mil that has been reportedly stashed in overseas accounts. The Star

One more SWD engineer held

An array of cash both ringgit and foreign currency, gold jewellery, land titles and luxury brand watches and handbags were seized from two high ranking Sabah state agency officials in a graft investigation. ― Picture by Julia Chan

KOTA KINABALU Oct 25 2916:  Another district engineer has been arrested in the ongoing massive graft probe into the Sabah Water Department.

The officer, who was arrested at 6.40pm on Sunday, was produced before Tawau magistrate Faizal Che Saad who allowed the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission’s (MACC) application for a five-day remand.

Five of the department employees who were among the 19 department staff detained on Oct 19 were released on bail yesterday.

The five were freed on RM50,000 bail each after being produced before magistrate Cindy Mc Juce Balitus at about 2.40pm.

Earlier this month, five suspects, including the department’s director and deputy director, were detained under Ops Water which also saw the seizures of some RM190mil in cash, properties and other valuables.

Also picked up during the second wave of the operation were 22 engineers and technicians, some of whom were said to have received as much as 30% in kickbacks for the water projects.

The investigators seized RM8.4mil in the second phase of their probe.

MACC deputy chief commissioner Datuk Azam Baki confirmed the latest arrest when contacted.

Meanwhile, sources said there was pressure for the investigators to speed up their probe into the case.

“It would take a much longer time to wrap up investigations due to the vast amount of documents involved,” they said, adding that the amount of documents seized was equivalent to “half the size of a tennis court”.

“Due to this, we have to fly in more officers from Putrajaya and several states to Kota Kinabalu to assist in gleaning, sorting out and scrutinising the documents.

“Every piece can provide a vital clue,” one of the sources said.

All the documents – in the millions – are now kept in a secret location here and a team of officers are taking turns to guard them round-the-clock.

“As this is a high-profile case, certain quarters are trying to take advantage of the situation. But the MACC will not allow any outside elements to jeopardise our probe.

“The investigation team is doing its best to come up with an airtight case before submitting the investigation papers to the Attorney-General’s Chambers to press charges against those responsible,” added the source.

The probe is one the biggest ever in the country to be carried out by the MACC involving abuse of power, corruption and money laundering from the RM3.3bil in federal allocations for water since 2010.

Civil service back in vogue - for the wrong reasons

THE civil service may fall short in meeting the job prospects of a large number of people, but it has made up with abundant opportunities for self-enrichment – if one is prepared to take the risk of facing the law.

In a nutshell, the “Watergate” incident involving top officials from the Sabah Water Department is increasingly serving as an eye opener for the majority who had shunned the civil service previously due to limited prospects and lower remuneration compared to the private sector.

As the number of people involved in the “Watergate” discovery keep stacking up, with some junior officers returning money to become state witnesses – the chatter in coffee shops is on the level of abuse within the civil service when it comes to handing out contracts through a restricted tender process.

To be fair, the majority of Malaysia’s 1.2 million-strong civil service are merely ordinary employees providing a service to the public. They carry out their duties diligently despite the constraints and remuneration.

However, there is something wrong with the system when we hear that even basic matters such as the transfer of a student from a mediocre school to a school that is “highly sought after”, or students seeking grants and scholarships from the Government may require some kind of monetary gratification to someone within or outside the system.

Generally, cases involving a small exchange of money go unreported because the party that is prepared to hand out the gratification just wants to go about their business with a minimum of hassle. At most, the topic is fodder for talk among friends or relatives. But when millions are seized from the homes and offices of civil servants – money supposedly meant to upgrade the water services in Sabah – it no longer is merely coffee-shop chatter.

It has been a topic of serious discussion almost everywhere in the last 10 days.

When Budget 2017 is announced next week, the nation will see another round of Government allocation to various ministries for their expenditure and development. In the budget last year, the Federal Government estimated the operating and development expenditure for this year to be RM265.22bil. Generally, the development expenditure is less than RM50bil and the rest goes towards the cost of operating the Federal Government.

While in previous years, the focus was on the Government’s growing operating expenditure, which means less money for development, the question that will be racing on the minds of many is how much of the amount allocated is going to be siphoned off in the form of corruption and kick-backs for inflating the cost of projects and “fixing” restricted tenders.

The Government has limited options in its spending, considering that there is a target to keep the fiscal deficit down. This year, the fiscal deficit is expected to be negative 3.2%, which is a remarkable improvement compared to negative 4.3% in 2012 and a figure of more than negative 5% in 2009.

Next year, we are supposed to bring down the fiscal deficit to 3%, meaning Government spending has to be cut further.

It is part of the plan to have a balanced budget by 2020, which is only four years away. A balanced budget means that what the Federal Government receives in revenue is enough to cover its operating and development expenditure.

Many countries tend to keep a surplus budget, something that comes in handy during bad times. A fiscal surplus effectively means the Government earns more money than it spends. It has reserves that can be touched when it needs to spend more than what it earns. And a fiscal surplus or balanced budget commands the respect of rating agencies.

Earlier this week, Australia’s 30-year debt papers garnered a triple-A rating despite the country going through an economic slowdown due to the fall in the resources sector. The country used to run a surplus budget until 2007.

As for Malaysia, achieving a balanced budget by 2020 is part of a plan to shore up the country’s balance sheet. However, the Government must ensure that the machinery works towards optimising every ringgit spent.

In the case of the Sabah Water Department incident, alleged abuse was allowed to happen due to the practice of having “restricted tenders” when awarding contracts. It is a common practice in all departments and ministries. The only difference is the amount that can be awarded.

For instance, at the ministry level, the level of approval for the minister to award contracts through restricted tenders can go up to RM100mil or more. As long as there are eight to 10 companies that are registered with the ministry competing in the restricted tender exercise, the minister can award the job to the lowest bidder.

The companies tend to act in concert, something that is known to the officers handling the tender process. When the contract is awarded to one company at an inflated price, the other companies get paid for their participation.

The officers in the ministry are also being rewarded and it goes down from the top to several layers down. The restricted tender process can easily be a farce!

The argument that favours a restricted tender is that it can be awarded quickly compared to an open tender, where the evaluation process is often time-consuming. However, a competitive open tender process allows for an efficient price-discovery mechanism.

For instance, the 1,000MW Prai power plant in Seberang Perai was awarded on a competitive tender. The winning bid came in on a tariff of 34.7 sen per unit, which is now the benchmark for any future gas-fired power plants.

Restricted tenders have been quite prevalent in the past few years. However, they have a massive amount of drawbacks, based on the rising number of civil servants being charged or under investigation for corruption.

However, the restricted tender process has brought back the allure of the civil service – for the wrong reasons though.

There was a time in the 1960s and 1970s when civil servants were the preferred choice of grooms in arranged marriages. It was apparent especially among Indian parents.

From the mid-80s onwards, the shift was towards those working in the private sector, especially prospective grooms in large multinational companies holding mid-management positions.

Now, the civil service sector is back in vogue – especially positions that involve the awarding of contracts. All thanks to the enormous publicity that “Watergate” has drawn.

- The alternative view by M. Shangmugam, The Star/ANN

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Penang Free School: Learning religiously - without religion !

 

Penang Free School: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penang_Free_School

Penang Free School, the first English school in the country, turns 200 in a week. It was, and remains, a school for the brave and the true. And for the Free.

WE’RE on the cusp of history. A week from today, the oldest English school in the country, Penang Free School, will turn 200. It’s a proud moment for the school. And for yours truly. I spent my formative years in that school.

It’s the kind of school that cliches are made off – you can take a student out of Free School but you can never take the Free out of the students. We will always be Old Frees.

The old boys are already celebrating. There have been golf tournaments, dinners and get-togethers lined up. There was a 73-day, 20,000km road convoy from Penang to Dittisham, Devon, in Britain, where the founder of PFS, Reverend Robert S. Hutchings, was born.

The six-vehicle convoy left on July 17 and arrived at its destination on Oct 3.

The huge school field is now covered with canopies waiting for the thousands of Old Frees who will gather there on Oct 21 to celebrate the grand old dame’s birthday.

The field is one of the things most Old Frees would remember. It was both a blessing and a bane. With two football fields, three hockey pitches and a cricket pitch, it was great for outdoor activities.

The track around the field was good training ground for long-distance runners. But for the errant ones in school, it was a pain. The teachers made you run around the field as punishment. If you were not athletically inclined, that was punishing indeed.

But it was the teachers who made the school wonderful. We had some of the best and most dedicated teachers – not just in the subjects they taught but also in sports.

There was Wilson Doss, the cricket-mad teacher. He played for Selangor, Penang and even in international matches and he would try to get every lad in the school to give the sport a try-out.

I have to admit to being an absolute flop at it. With only the experience of playing “rounders” with the neighbourhood gang, I would hurl the cricket bat away as I ran. And Mr Wilson would growl.

There was N. Vallupillay, the hockey coach with the kindest of souls. He, too, would try to get everyone to play hockey and among the top players he nurtured was former national captain Ow Soon Kooi.

With Vallupillay at the helm, PFS was the state’s school hockey champion for 20 years from 1964 to 1984. The rivalry with St Xavier’s Institution and the Bukit Mertajam High School was intense, sometimes even rowdy.

Vallupillay then moved to George Town Secondary School and voila, that school became another hockey powerhouse in the state.

Then, there was Johnny Ooi, yet another teacher who was very much into hockey and who took over when Mr Vallupillay left.

Ooi Bee Seng was the basketball man. Under his watch, more basketball courts were built and more of the students turned to the game.

Nai Bej Sararaks was the athletics guy. Every now and then, he would bundle a gang of us into his beat-up jalopy and drive us off to training. The one I vividly remember was when we ran up Penang Hill from what Penangites know as Moongate.

The man waited at the bottom of the hill as the bunch of us ran up to the top of the hill and later scrambled all the way down. He was there with some juice before taking us all back to the school.

There was no need then for sports schools or schools of excellence. The teachers delivered. It’s been some years but I believe the teachers in the school are still a dedicated bunch.

But the real wonder of the school is the belief on which it is built – that it should be free from religion and open to all.

It’s a very strange thing. At a time when almost all education was under the care of priests (or brothers), there was one Rev Hutchings who did not want to impose his religious beliefs on the local populace.

When Hutchings first petitioned for a “free school”, his aim was to provide a school to educate, feed, and clothe orphans and poor children. It wasn’t about religion – only about education.

Yes, there was a bit of “free” in the financial sense. Only those who could afford it were asked to pay $3, $2, and $1 per year. Poor children were exempted.

The country has come a long, long way from then. Education standards have slumped. We have been dithering over the direction we want to take. Sports in schools is no longer a big thing. Few teachers believe in the power of sports.

Instead, religion has come into schools in a big way. There is a lot of emphasis on religious education and rituals, causing our children to drift apart from one another.

There really is a need for more new “free” schools – schools where education and sports are where the emphasis is.

 
Why Not? By Dorairaj Nadason is The Star’s Executive Editor.

The writer, who can be reached at raj@thestar.com.my, still salutes the gates of the school when he drives by. She is, after all, alma mater – the mother who nurtured him.

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US has to accept China’s rise: expert said in 7th Xiangshan Security Forum

http://www.xiangshanforum.cn/

https://youtu.be/jb3B6OHJBYg


https://youtu.be/_xpGrocWVWc

Major powers threaten other countries by seeking ‘absolute security’

Professor Zheng Yongnian (right) speaks to reporters at the Xiangshan Forum in Beijing on Wednesday. Photo: Chen Ping/GT

The US is sending the wrong diplomatic signals to South Asia, a Singapore-based scholar said at a security forum in ­Beijing on Wednesday. And he called for a balance in major power relations in the region.

Zheng Yongnian, professor and director of the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore, said "the US is adjusting itself toward the rise of China … But I don't think the US is sending the right signals to South Asian countries."

He noted, "although it will not go to war with China because of the Philippines [over South China Sea disputes] or any other nation, the signals the US sends out, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership or its 'Pivot to Asia,' are viewed negatively in South Asia."

Zheng made the remarks on the sidelines on the third day of the Seventh Xiangshan Forum. He dismissed the concept of absolute power in the globalization era.

"Major powers should understand that they pose a threat to other countries by seeking absolute security for themselves," Zheng said.

He emphasized that the expansion of NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union led to conflict in eastern Ukraine, since the organization raised Russian security concerns.

Zheng also noted that as the world's major power, the US has to accept the natural rise of China. "China's economic rise means it will also have geopolitical influence regardless of the intentions of its leaders."

He lashed out at the notion of "alliances," which is an "offshoot" of the Cold War.

"Alliances mean there is an enemy. And no alliance is equal because there will be a leader and followers," he said, adding "the US, Japan and the Philippines remain in an alliance. I believe once Japan and the Philippines get a chance, they will seek an equal ­position."

However, smaller countries have to respect a major power's interests, otherwise it will cause regional conflict, like when South Korea agreed to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) ­system, he said.

The US anti-missile defense system has caused a rift between South Korea and China. Although some South Koreans have been raising health and environmental concerns, President Park Geun-hye defended it as a national defense necessity.

Separately, referring to the position of the US toward China, J. Stapleton Roy, former US ambassador to China, told the Global Times, "We would consider China hostile if it enjoys greater military might."

"Americans like to think in terms of using our robust military presence in the Asia-Pacific to balance the rise of China, but not to contain it, so that China's neighbors are not alarmed over its growing military and economic power."

China doesn't want to be a dominant power in the region, which is not a military showcase for the US as well, said Su Ge, president of the China Institute of International Studies.

"China is not intent on replacing the US," he said.

- Global Times - Asia-Pacific, Cross-Borders

US Policy towards China:

https://youtu.be/brUWyCi_x-4

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Bizarre world of new debt, low, even negative interest rates a threat to global stability

New debt crisis a threat to global stability

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt-to-GDP_ratio; 

The global debt clock: http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

Global debt has jumped alarmingly to RM631tril and as capital flows out from developing countries, some are facing new debt crises.

DEBT worldwide has grown to unprecedentedly high levels and has to be brought down to prevent another financial crisis.

This was highlighted by the Inter­national Monetary Fund at its annual meeting in Washington last week.

Other problems facing the global economy include the stagnation in world trade, a decline in commodity prices and the reversal of capital flows to developing countries.

A recently released United Nations report has analysed the situation as a third phase in the global crisis that began with the United States in 2008, then spread in a second wave to Europe, and is now moving on to the developing countries.

The IMF said that world debt had reached US$152tril (RM631tril), a record level. It was 200% of the value of global gross domestic product in 2002, but has risen to 225% in 2015. The private sector holds two thirds of the total, but government debt has also risen fast, and the IMF warned about the risk of another financial crisis.

“Excessive private debt is a major headwind against global recovery and a risk to financial stability,” said Vitor Gaspar, IMF director of fiscal affairs. “Rapid increases in private debt often end up in financial crises.”

Most of this global debt is concentrated in developed countries. The huge jump there has been due to policies of easy money and low, zero or even negative interest rates, and especially to quantitative easing in which Central Banks bought bonds and pumped trillions of dollars into the banking system.

 

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201607121042814891-germany-italy-europe-financial-crisis/

It was hoped that this massive infusion would cause the banks to increase lending to consumers and businesses and thus stimulate economic growth.

However, the real economy did not benefit much. Instead, most of the money went into the equity markets, boosting prices, and to the developing economies as investors searched for higher yield, and this helped to fuel the growth of their debt.

The debt of non-financial corporations in emerging economies jumped from US$9tril (RM37tril) at end-2008 to over US$25tril (RM104tril) by end-2015, or from 57% to 104% of their GDP.

Foreigners now own unprecedentedly high shares of bonds and equities in developing countries, which have become vulnerable to investor-mood swings and funds, resulting in financial crises.

When market sentiment or conditions change, the massive inflows can turn into equally large outflows. Indeed, the boom-bust cycle of capital flows has gone through many turns through the years.

Huge amounts left developing countries in the fourth quarter of 2015, and for that year as a whole there was a net outflow of US$656bil (RM2.7tril) or 2.7% of their Gross Domestic Product, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

This was a big change from a net inflow of 1.3% of GDP in 2013. This turnaround of 4.4% is much larger than the reversals of capital flows in 1981-83, 1996-98 and 2007-08.

But in recent months the cycle turned again, with the return of fund investors to emerging economies. For example, in Malaysia, after suffering large outflows in 2015, there have been net inflows of funds into the equity and bond markets in the past few months.

Going through these cycles, the debt of developing countries has grown. “Easy access to cheap credit in boom times has led to growing debt levels across the developing world,” says UNCTAD’s Trade and Development Report 2016.

Developing countries’ external debt rose from US$2.1tril (RM9tril) in 2000 to US$6.8tril (RM28tril) in 2015. Overall debt (foreign and domestic) jumped by over US$31tril (RM129tril) with total debt-to-GDP ratios reaching over 120% in many countries and over 200% in some others.

Now a nightmare scenario is emerging. For many countries, the tide is turning and access to cheap credit has begun to dry up. Says UNCTAD: “Against the backdrop of falling commodity prices and weakening growth in developed economies, borrowing costs have been driven up very quickly, turning what seemed reasonable debt burdens under favourable conditions into largely unsustainable debt.”

In some countries, the problem is compounded by currency devaluation (which increases the value of external debt) and lower commodity prices.

These countries are thus hit by multiple whammies – lower commodity prices and export earnings, net outflow of funds, devaluation (which causes their foreign debt to increase), a higher cost of servicing debt, and economic slowdown.

More and more low-income countries are in a downward economic spiral that has led them into a new debt crisis. They have had to turn to institutions like the IMF and World Bank for bailouts. UNCTAD lists Angola, Azerbaijan, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Zam­bia and Zimbabwe as countries that have already asked for financial assistance or are in talks to do so.

This points to a shortfall in the international financial system – the lack of an orderly and fair debt mechanism which countries facing a debt crisis can have recourse to.

At the national level, the developed countries and some developing countries have corporate bankruptcy laws, aimed at helping companies to recover from a debt crisis through an orderly debt workout.

But there is no such debt workout mechanism, with fair burden sharing between debtor and creditors, when countries fall into a debt crisis.

In its absence, indebted countries often face many years of austerity and recessionary conditions im­­posed by the creditors and rescuing agencies, and with no guarantee that their debt level will even decrease.

With the present level of worldwide debt and the emergence of a new debt crisis in several countries, especially poor ones, it is time to consider smarter policies that prevent debt crises, and to manage them properly when they happen.

Global Trends By Martin Khor Global Trend The Star/ANN

Martin Khor (director@southcentre.org) is executive director of the South Centre. The views expressed here are entirely his own.

The bizarre world of low, even negative, interest rates

 

Draghi’s point: ECB president Mario Draghi speaks during a news conference in Berlin. He vigorously defended his stimulus policies to critical lawmakers in Berlin, while reaffirming the urgency to step up structural reforms. – Bloomberg

INTEREST rate is the price of money.

It sets the benchmark as it serves to oil the financial system’s engine, helping capital to flow freely and effectively in the global economy. Rates have been positive for the past three centuries despite world wars and the Great Depression. The system is not designed for a world of ultra-low, let alone negative rates.

The traditional business of banking, as we know it, is to take money from savers (in the form of deposits – representing banks’ liabilities) and lend it, at higher rates and over longer periods, to borrowers (investors, whose loans become their assets). Essentially, banks borrow short and lend long.

So the shape of the yield curve (chart of interest rates reflecting their term structure) is critical as it drives profits. The smaller the margin (gap) between short and long-term rates (i.e. the flatter the yield curve in economists’ jargon), the tighter banks’ profits are squeezed. The problem becomes even more difficult as interest rates or bond yields move near or to zero or worse, get negative.

Negative world

Negative rates invert the norms of banking. Strangely, borrowers are paid for taking money, while savers pay to hand over their deposits. Banks already face resistance from depositors who won’t pay to save with them. Even as the return on their assets falls, banks find it hard to reduce the cost of their liabilities. When central banks impose rates on the reserves kept by banks with them – as is done at the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) – it’s difficult for the banks to pass on this cost.

Indeed, negative rates act as a tax on bank profits. Banks also own government bonds, partly because regulators require them to keep a portfolio of liquid assets. Revenue here is a handy source of income. But as the older, high-yielding bonds mature, their replacements are now much lower yielding, thus eating into banks’ profits.

So banks look for other ways to re-coup, resorting to fees for services. Indeed, wealthy clients of private banking are starting to wake up to the impact of fees.

Insurance companies are also badly affected. They buy bonds to match assets with their long liabilities. But insurance companies in Germany and Switzerland are stuck with savings products they had sold in happier times, which guarantee returns well above current yields. A similar problem hit Japan in the 1990s and 2000s. Those with asset management arms have some protection, where returns are linked to the markets. But the impact of low returns is slowly but surely squeezing them too.

Impact

The underlying economic problem today remains inadequate global demand. In response, ECB has since stepped up its stimulus activities, joining BoJ and others in breaching the “zero lower bound” (inability of interest rates to get negative). So far, the impact on growth and employment has been dismal – simply because there is so much excess capacity worldwide.

Lower rates (even going negative) don’t appear to work. Lending has become more risky and banks today, as I see it, have neither the appetite nor enthusiasm to lend. Negative interest rates (NIRs) hurt banks’ balance sheets.

Other problems: NIRs (i) encourage investment in capital-intensive and disruptive technologies; (ii) perversely encourage savings – as fixed, interest-dependent income earners dampen consumption; (iii) curb a bank’s ability to lend; (iv) distort financial markets; and (v) shift portfolios to riskier assets in search of higher yields. In the longer run, NIRs compel businesses and individuals to disengage from a financial system that now taxes their saving.

Short-term rate and government bond yields represent the risk-free rate that forms the basis of return in finance. The expected return on equities comprises this risk-free rate plus a premium to allow for stock volatility and risk of capital loss. A good chunk of income of service providers is the “cut” they take. Today, there is simply much less return to go around.

Global trading in government bonds had exceeded US$10 trillion, a testament to just how hard central bankers are pushing yields down to spur households and businesses to spend. US 10-year Treasury now yields below 1.7%. Returns on comparable bonds in Germany and Japan are negative. Falling rates promise limited relief for consumers and businesses because inflation is falling too. For many in Europe and Japan, even record low rates don’t translate into easier borrowing terms on a real, or inflation adjusted, basis. For example, 10-year Japanese bonds return a -0.07%; but consumer prices fell 0.3%, yielding a +0.23% at 10 years, a key rate for most Japanese. NIRs don’t appear to have helped boost inflation in Europe either. The real case against NIRs is the folly of relying on monetary policy alone to rescue economies from depressed conditions.

Scandinavian experience

Among Scandinavian nations, Denmark already has four years of NIRs. Its central bank benchmark rate now stands at -0.65% (mortgage rate, excluding fees, being at negative 0.0562%). Neighbour Sweden’s is -0.5% (below zero for 14 months). In Norway, rates can go negative to prop-up an economy hard hit by low oil prices. ECB and BoJ are using sub-zero rates to stimulate growth with little success.

Meanwhile, Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark are trying NIRs to keep their currencies in line with the struggling euro. Their experience points to concerns about undesirable side-effects, including: (i) savers pay the price of getting no interest; even so, bank profitability is squeezed; (ii) excessive investment in real estate; (iii) households gorging up mortgages they can’t afford to repay when rates rise or real estate values fall.

Sweden’s household debt to disposable income ratio is at an unsustainable 175% (90% in mid-1990s); and (iv) run to physical cash by savers. The flip-side points to success in keeping the currency in check, holding steady against the euro to protect euro-trade and competitiveness.

In Denmark, despite NIRs, private saving is rising (26% of GDP, against 21% before 2012 when rates were positive) to protect future purchasing power. But, investments fell (16% of GDP against 18.1% in 1990-2012). So, NIRs appear to be counterproductive. This chorus of discontent is spreading to other parts of Europe.

NIRs have pushed up savings and done little for corporate investment, while eviscerating pension plans. Politically, in Europe’s sclerotic economy, in the face of high unemployment (double the US rate) and an uncertain outlook, NIRs can be even more toxic, driving voters to support populist causes.

Japan

BoJ took radical measures for 3½ years to reflate the country’s sagging economy, resorting this January to NIRs. Yet growth and inflation remain elusive. Core-inflation is at minus 0.5%, far below BoJ’s 2% target. Prices today are still lower than they were in 1997. BoJ’s primary method to raise consumer expectations has been buying assets, mostly government bonds but also real estate and equities.

As a result, Japan’s monetary base tripled to US$4 trillion (80% of GDP). Investors’ patience is fraying. In a bold move to deepen the yield curve, BoJ on Sept 21: (i) capped the 10-year government bond rate at 0%, vowing to overshoot its 2% inflation target; and (ii) maintained its existing policy to purchase 80 trillion yen (US$78bil) of assets a year. Both these goals are incompatible. They pose a dilemma – in the event demand for government bonds collapses, BoJ will need to buy more and more to keep yields at zero. Similarly, strong demand may even make it unnecessary to buy any.

As I see it, the new approach is a sensible response to market realities. BoJ had conceded real difficulties in shifting price expectations towards the inflation target. Besides, the flattening yield curve is eating into banks’ profits.

By targeting its future purchases at the shorter-end (rather than buy longer bonds as now), BoJ is expected to tolerate a steeper yield curve. The yield cap should make NIRs more effective. Indeed, it allows BoJ to further test the bounds of its NIRs policy. In essence, the new approach shifts focus to interest rates, a retreat from the unpopular quantitative easing (QE). For investors, there is no longer a willing buyer. Instead, a price setter – adding uncertainty. Its pledge to overshoot the inflation target as soon as possible is designed to raise future price expectations more forcefully.

Whether BoJ can shake off deflation depends on whether domestic demand can revive to rekindle the still elusive price expectations. QE needs to be accompanied by more purposeful fiscal stimulus – including even a last ditch effort to issue “helicopter money” – to directly underwrite government spending by BoJ.

In search of yields

With NIRs, some of the world’s un-venturesome investors – the Japanese – are going abroad at an unprecedented rate this year: up to US$500bil being invested so far in foreign securities. For the risk taker, Venezuela bonds earned as much as 27% return over the past year. However, most prefer to just take “duration” risk: measured on when the investor gets his money back.

Longer bonds have higher duration risk – as do bonds with low coupons (more waiting time). Rule of thumb: 1 percentage point change in the rate changes the bond price equal to the duration. The price of 25-year bonds will jump 25% if rates fell by 1 percentage point; and falls 25% if rates rose 1 percentage point. As duration gets longer, risk mounts. For example: last year, 40-year Japanese bonds carried a 1.4% coupon. Rates have since turned negative; so the price rose by as much as 34%.

What then, are we to do

It is startling that the total volume of sovereign and corporate bonds with NIRs now exceeds one-half of all western debt. It’s equally amazing how investors continue to gobble up these bonds even though they are likely to get back less than what was invested.

Just as astonishing is the rising demand for cash – the world’s largest asset managers now hold 5.8% of their assets in cash! Why? Points to investors and fund managers being downbeat on the ability of central bankers to raise inflation in the face of growing pessimism about growth prospects (17% of them expect a global recession, and as many as 39% expect “helicopter money” to be handed out). Most fear the policy landscape will become weirder.

QE appears broken. This playbook has limited success in US and is patchy at best in Europe and Japan. Frankly, US bankers and economists are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the cycle of QE infinity and more aware of its collateral effects, including keeping US dollar cheap.

But consumers and businesses have been saving rather than spending, with stagnant unemployment overshadowing the windfall from rising asset prices. European banks have been hit by low interest rates, tighter regulation and rising non-performing loans that have hurt profitability. Policymakers are today rethinking strategies. Mario Draghi is, and Haruhiko Kuroda has had a recent relook. The key question remains: how to regain policy effectiveness. That’s where the focus should be – adopt pro-growth structural reforms to make the economies more competitive, and to enhance fiscal creditability.

Sure, BoJ has to make people believe in inflation. Inflationary expectations won’t materialise until BoJ is credible. Credibility – that’s what makes our world in 2016. In the US, both presidential candidates have pledged fiscal stimulus. Hopefully, by next year (after elections in Spain, Germany and France), a more balanced application of softer QE and aggressive fiscal stimulus can turn Europe from a good trade into a good investment.

• What are we to do?

  By Lin See Yan

Former banker, Harvard educated economist and British Chartered Scientist, Tan Sri Lin See-Yan is the author of The Global Economy in Turbulent Times (Wiley, 2015). Feedback is most welcome; email: starbiz@thestar.com.my.


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Housing affordability is an income issue, what's with the fuss?

 

Success story: The Pinnacle@Duxton, a HDB public housing estate, in the Tanjong Pagar district of Singapore. The HDB programme provides the government with an effective means to ensure targeted housing supply meant for community dwelling. – Bloomberg

Best practices from from HDB should be carefully studied

IT is increasingly a cause for concern to see the rising cost of living leading to a significant erosion of income. This results in more youths and job entrants unable to afford decent dwelling, be it in urban or sub-urban areas.

Therefore, it has become a pressing policy matter to find an effective solution to keep real estate prices in check. Many governmental agencies have been set up, but affordability remains a problem.

> Current state of health

From property developers to banks offering mortgages, the real estate sector supply chain has a high correlation with domestic economic performance.

According to the National Property Information Centre (NAPIC), the Malaysian House Price Index growth has been moderating since 2014.

The index had eased to 7.2% in the fourth quarter last year, down from a 7.4% expansion in the previous quarter. It is the fifth consecutive quarter of slower pace of growth.

Similarly, Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth had tapered to 4.0% in the second quarter this year, down from 4.2% in the previous quarter.

Notwithstanding the current sluggish economic conditions, the pertinent issue surrounding the real estate segment is affordable housing.

>Severely unaffordable

Even though broad property prices growth have plateaued, the high absolute price to own a house continues to be out of reach for the common Malaysian.

According to the report “Making Housing Affordable” by Khazanah Research Institute, the overall Malaysian housing market is ‘seriously unaffordable’.

Using the “median-multiple ratio” standard by the United Nations Centre for Human Settlement at the World Bank, a housing market is considered “affordable” if the house price to household income ratio is below 3.0 times.

The study conducted by Khazanah Research Institute, following the latest available data by the Department of Statistics, indicated that the overall Malaysian median-multiple in 2014 was 4.4 times.

More worryingly, the median multiple ratio for Kuala Lumpur (5.4 times), Penang (5.2 times), Terengganu (5.5 times) and Sabah (5.1 times) are considered to be ‘severely unaffordable’.

According to NAPIC data in the first quarter of the year, the median residential property sale transaction price in Kuala Lumpur was within the range of RM400,000 to RM500,000.

Assuming that the property price is RM450,000, after paying the 10% down payment deposit and taking a 35- year tenure housing loan at 4.5% interest per annum, the monthly mortgage repayment comes up to slightly over RM1,900.

Meanwhile, the surveyed salary of a four-to-five-year experienced sales manager with a university degree was reportedly at between RM5,000 and RM8,000 per month, according to a local recruitment specialist report.

Effectively, this means that the manager is looking at a house-to-individual income ratio of 4.7 to 7.5 times if he or she were to purchase the Kuala Lumpur property on his or her own capacity.

 

Property price and value to Income per country in SEA 20014

Moreover, given Department of Statistics’ expectation of 1.2% annual population growth rate between 2016 and 2020, Malaysia’s demography will have to accommodate a projected 1.6 million more people by the end of the decade.

Housing is a pressing socioeconomic issue for the long term not only in Malaysia but also worldwide. It has to be sustainable and affordable.

 >Focus on sustainable supply side dynamics

Fundamentally, housing affordability is an income issue.

Given the high absolute value of real estates, household income – at a much lower base – would have to multiply much higher to catch up to the affordability threshold.

To extrapolate it further, even with higher income growth, would real estate ever be considered ‘affordable’?

A conventional profit maximisation motive could mean that property developers would eventually price their units in tandem with income growth rates, therefore creating the ever elusive ‘affordability’.

Keep in mind that there is no lack of demand for housing in Malaysia in light of the relatively young demographic.

In 2016, the estimated age group younger than 24 years old of around 13.4 million people makes up 43% of total population.

Besides, the average household size is expected to shrink from 4.6 people in 2000 to an estimated 4.0 people by the end of the decade, according to Khazanah Research Institute.

>More residential units would be required for dwelling.

Essentially, policy makers should focus more on the supply side dynamics to tackle the issue of home ownership and also on sustainable policies to ease the cost of ownership – especially for first- time home buyers.

Under the 11th Malaysia Plan, the government has already outlined the need for affordable housing – especially for the bottom 40% of households – to alleviate the increasing cost of living.

The government targets to provide 606,000 new affordable houses during course of the 11th Malaysia Plan spanning from 2016 to 2020, introduce an integrated database to match supply and demand dynamics and also establish a land bank for future affordable housing projects.

This would be a continuation of the Program Perumahan Rakyat 1Malaysia (PR1MA), Ruman Idaman Rakyat and Rumah Mesra Rakyat initiatives.

The government looks set to establish a land bank for houses and an integrated database for all relevant stakeholders to match demand and supply dynamics.

Across the straits, the Singapore Housing and Development Board (HDB) is often cited as a success story in providing affordable and quality homes.

The HDB programme is a comprehensive nationwide strategy that aligns the government’s legal powers to acquire land for public housing purposes, act as a central authority on township development, while leveraging on the Central Provident Fund as a financing means to ensure affordability.

Moreover, there is a holistic township planning whereby the development of physical HDB flat infrastructure is complemented by socioeconomic integration that promotes a cohesive society.

No doubt there are studies that indicate Singapore’s median multiple ratio is around 5.0 times in 2015, thereby classified as ‘severely unaffordable’.

The scarcity of land in the island state limits the potential for competitive supply of land.

Nevertheless, the comprehensive central planning that the Singapore government employs allows it to have a firm grip on keeping property prices in check.

In short, the HDB programme provides the government with an effective means to ensure targeted housing supply meant for community dwelling.

Given that Singapore’s home ownership rate has increased from 29% in the 1970s to close to 90% in 1990 and a vibrant resale market for the private sector, it is a considerable success story for providing quality living standards for the nation.

While it would likely be a gigantic task for other countries to emulate Singapore’s public housing policy from scratch in light of the legal matters of land and elements of socioeconomic welfare distribution, the best practices from HDB should be carefully studied.

>Housing matter should be top on policy priority

In Malaysia, land matter is a state matter. For a comprehensive public housing plan to take off, the government would have to put up an economically viable proposal to develop new townships across the nation with a cost effective structure.

The Urban Wellbeing, Housing and Local Government Ministry is mulling over the idea of developing a ‘Youth City’ township to cater to the young population.

Perhaps that could be a platform for the government to walk the talk and deliver value-added townships for affordable housing.

On the other end of the equation, besides providing dwelling space, real estate is also an asset class that yields cash flow from rental and also capital appreciation through time.

Therefore, it is imperative that the housing market price should never be trapped in an asset class bubble.

The 2008 United States’ sub-prime mortgage crisis serves as a grave reminder of the dire consequences and the impact on the real economy.

Fortunately, Bank Negara has already in place various macro-prudential policies since 2010 such as limiting loan-to-value ratio to 70% for home financing, and increase in real property gain tax to 10% for sales of real estate within two years to stem real estate market speculation activities.

In light of these, the recent consideration to allow property developers to offer home buyers financing at a much steeper financing cost of 12% interest rate per annum should be deliberated properly.

It is one matter to provide easier credit facility to own a property but it is an entirely different matter to compromise on the people’s capabilities to service the loan in the longer run and the spillover impact on real estate prices.

In short, housing is a necessity and it is imperative for authorities to have a policy interest in the issue.

The policy challenges going forward would only be more challenging as demand for housing continues to surge. It would be interesting to take stock of the plan that government has in mind come Budget 2017 on 21 October.

By Manokaran Mottain

Manokaran Mottain is the Chief Economist at Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd

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