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Thursday, April 2, 2020

Imported symptom-free cases pose transmission risk as more than 1,300 asymptomatic Covid-19 cases reported in China

This photo taken on March 31, 2020 shows a member (left) of a medical assistance team from Huaian being welcomed by her daughter after returning home from Wuhan to help with the Covid-19 recovery effort in Huaian in China's eastern Jiangsu province. The National Health Commission (NHC) reports that 1,367 asymptomatic patients are under medical observation.- AFP

https://youtu.be/NZOPHbEI5HI  

Why China's data on asymptomatic cases matters

https://youtu.be/DC-rMnjBw1Q

Imported symptom-free cases pose transmission risk 

The Chinese mainland reported 130 new cases of people who were found with no symptoms but tested positive for coronavirus on Tuesday, with two of them starting to show symptoms later on, the Chinese National Health Commission (NHC) said on Wednesday, the first day the country started to update information on the number of asymptomatic carriers on a daily basis.

BEIJING (AFP): China on Wednesday (April 1) said it has more than 1,300 asymptomatic coronavirus cases, the first time it has released such data following public concern over people who have tested positive but are not showing symptoms.

Health officials also reported the first imported case from abroad in Wuhan -- the epicentre where the virus first emerged late last year -- heightening fears of infections being brought into China from other countries.

Of 36 new cases reported Wednesday, 35 were imported from abroad.

The National Health Commission (NHC) said 1,367 asymptomatic patients were under medical observation, with 130 new cases newly added in the last day.

The NHC announced Tuesday that it would respond "to public concerns" by starting to publish daily data on asymptomatic cases, which it said were infectious.

There were mass online calls for the government to reveal the number of asymptomatic cases after authorities revealed over the weekend that an infected woman in Henan province had been in close contact with three asymptomatic cases.

However, asymptomatic cases are not being added to the official tally unless they later show clinical symptoms.

Historical data on those infected without showing symptoms has not been published.

Beijing has announced a series of dramatic measures to curb arrivals into the country and control imported cases -- including a ban on foreigners entering China and testing those arriving from overseas -- making it easier to determine those who are infected but don't show symptoms.

China says all detected asymptomatic cases and their close contacts must undergo 14-day centralised quarantine.

Experts agree that asymptomatic patients are likely to be infectious, but it remains unknown how responsible they are for spreading the deadly virus.

Chinese respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan said in a state media interview last week that asymptomatic carriers could potentially infect "3 to 3.5 people each".

There have now been 81,554 infections in China, with 3,312 deaths -- mostly concentrated in the epicentre of Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province.

The first imported case confirmed in Wuhan, a Chinese national studying in Britain, arrived in the city last week as it starts to gradually lift travel restrictions imposed to control the outbreak. - AFP


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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Coronavirus pandemic updates: Rise of US white supremacy portends new cold war or worse?

Check the latest update: 
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-cases-world-map/
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-cases-world-map/
Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World

> https://youtu.be/kVV4udIphcM

https://youtu.be/IRkXhR4SiIQ



https://youtu.be/OIvAmcQtdF0

https://youtu.be/KnI9c4_xu8w

Why white nationalists hear a political ally in Donald Trump

https://youtu.be/n4RLVuDD-AE

https://youtu.be/YOngQERR9tE

Trump attacks journalists for asking 'snarky' questions on coronavirus testing in US


With the novel coronavirus spreading around the globe, a political virus with deeper influence has also begun to show up. In recent years, white nationalism and white supremacy have been on the rise, a perfect reflection of a political virus that is spreading in the US. If Washington cannot appropriately deal with this virus, it will not be able to make the US great again but rather see an irreversible decline and fall of the US empire.

As of Tuesday, the US has reported at least 163,000 cases of COVID-19 and over 3,000 deaths from the virus. These fast rising numbers have failed to sober some US politicians, especially those who are anti-China, who regard the virus as an opportunity to expand their political interests.

The US is in a political mess with different forces striving to gain an upper hand in a game of political competition. The far-right forces represented by former Trump White House strategist Stephen K. Bannon have been on the frontline and haven't missed an opportunity to attract attention with extreme rhetoric.

Bannon has said that the Chinese government is "an existential threat to the Chinese people and to the world, not just the US." This is a typical statement aimed at gaining political support by pitting China and the world against each other. People like Bannon are actually spokespersons for white nationalism and white supremacy, and they label China an enemy to realize their political goals. These people have fanned the flames of extreme nationalism, which will cause the US to suffer first.

US history shows us that the country needs an enemy to push its development. This is pathetic, yet white nationalists still attempt to unite Americans by making up an enemy. The enemy used to be the Soviet Union, and now it's China, even though today's China is nothing like the Soviet Union.

When the term "American Century" was coined in the 1940s, the US was urged to become the world's Good Samaritan and thus a leader across the globe. Hence, in the eyes of some US politicians obsessed with the extreme mind-set of ideological competition, China has been targeted as a thorn in the side of the US.

Such being the case, Bannon and his followers have spared no efforts to smear China. They will continue spreading their political virus in the hope of reaching their ultimate goal of overthrowing China. These people on the far fringe of US political debate view this as the easiest way to make the US great again.

However, they know it's not possible for them to overturn the Chinese government, but they can't let go their paranoia. Therefore, they won't even hesitate to fulfill their self-gratification even if it drags the US into a hostility confrontation or even a war against China. In the era of globalization, the US will definitely harm itself and its people if it launches a cold war with China.

Nonetheless, if this racism-related political virus continues spreading and more people are deceived by extreme speech, the US will see its existing lesions develop into a malignant tumor. If that occurs, it won't only be the vast innocent Americans who will suffer, but also the politicians who care only about their political interests.


Read more :


Coronavirus pandemic accelerated as West’s sense of superiority caused failure to act promptly and lies about China

The West is trying to deflect blame, exacerbated by a mind-set which interprets disease outbreaks not as an inevitable aspect of the human condition, but something belonging to exotic, oriental and poorer nations.

US, UK politicians can't twist virus public opinion 

It is absurd to accuse China of a disinformation campaign or attempt to hold China accountable. And this cannot and will not stop US and British societies from digging out the real reason and criticizing those who made them suffer the pandemic.



Anti-China chorus can't mask country's contributions to virus fight

The US and some other Western countries have been recently launching continuous public opinion attacks on China from changing perspectives. They accused China of concealing data on the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths, politicized disputes over the quality of certain medical supplies shipped from China to the West, threw mud at China's diplomacy and demanded China be held accountable for the coronavirus outbreak, as if they are in tune with a new anti-China chorus.

Related posts:

Viral diplomatic wars: Trump’s labelling of Covid-19 as a ‘Chinese virus’ earlier this month has infuriated Beijing and ethnic Chinese w..
https://youtu.be/uR_LfkGwBG8 As readers will recall from the earlier article (above), Japanese and Taiwanese epidemiologists and pharma...
https://youtu.be/Y_dU2RCqWs4 FORCED TO SHUT DOWN WHEN VIRUSES LEAKED AUGUST 2019    US SOLDIERS WERE INFECTED 300 HUNDRED CAM...

https://youtu.be/Pucoeb2KKOQ How China can end US rivalry and realise its vision of a shared future for humanity, as the world struggl.

'We lied, we cheated, we stole', ‘the Glory of American experiment’ by US Secretary of State/Ex-CIA director Mike Pompeo 


https://youtu.be/DPt-zXn05ac

Pompeo's three sins in global virus fight

Pompeo and other US elites must be responsible for damaging superpower cooperation if the pandemic worsens, while China cannot join hands with the US due to the war of words. Politicians like Pompeo focus too much on their personal political interests. They will eventually be remembered as negative role models in the history of mankind's battle against COVID-19.

 Others:


Malaysia Early signs of success during first phase of MCO: Dr Noor ...


Malaysia extends lockdown to April 14

https://youtu.be/yL26-EW7ZW4

Sunday, March 29, 2020

How China and US can end their rivalry

https://youtu.be/Pucoeb2KKOQ

How China can end US rivalry and realise its vision of a shared future for humanity, as the world struggles with the pandemic

The US-China rivalry only feeds the pandemic, when global cooperation is needed. This is where China’s vision of a shared destiny for humanity can be useful, provided it can be elevated above suspicions of a Beijing power grab


I cannot imagine richer nutrients for the novel coronavirus to reproduce and spread, to flourish globally, than the United States and China continuing to descend into unabashed and undisguised rivalry, with escalating accusations each against the other. Nourish the virus with US-China competition. Or starve the virus with US-China cooperation.

Never has such cooperation been needed more urgently – to battle and contain the pandemic and to sustain and bolster the world economy. Containing the global pandemic, like bolstering the global economy, depends on US-China collaboration.

. If climate change is the world’s most intractable chronic problem, then Covid-19 is the world’s most severe acute problem. My two favourite countries have a choice: either work together to fight the pandemic, developing drugs and vaccines to kill and stop Covid-19, or suffer an out-of-control global pandemic and a chain-reaction cratering of the global economy. Truly, nations will fight the virus and collectively win, or fight each other and collectively lose.

Although China has well-earned respect for curbing its outbreak, there is room for critique, correction and improvement. President Xi Jinping stresses drawing lessons from the outbreak to improve the country's systems for major epidemic control, prevention and public health emergency management.

Apropos of the pandemic, Xi’s repeated call to build “a community with a shared future for all humanity” is a grand vision with multiple applications. For seven years, it has driven foreign policy, especially the Belt and Road Initiative , helping to rectify global imbalances.

https://youtu.be/v34MfJJAZA0

While fighting disease or controlling pandemics have always been a “shared future” benefit, it was always tucked within lists of other benefits, such as climate control, preventing terrorism, interdicting drugs and the like. Few ever imagined that a pandemic could become so grave so fast. But as the pandemic has burst into planetary consciousness, it demonstrates viscerally the global criticality of “shared future” thinking.

The challenge for China is to elevate Xi’s vision above what appears to some as competitive positioning or even as a sprint to assert China’s leadership. China’s experience in containing the contagion, which many countries now desperately need, provides just such an opportunity.

By sending “battle-tested” medical teams to countries under siege, China brings to bear experts with contemporary frontline epidemic experience. What is not well appreciated in the tops-of-trees daily recitations of cases and deaths are China’s evolved know-how and the meticulous work of Chinese health care and logistics professionals.

Exporting coronavirus knowledge, China sends medical teams to countries to help fight pandemic https://youtu.be/jTtqB-zVUAw

There is a problem, though. Emotions worldwide are frayed, rubbed raw by the pandemic’s daily-life disruptions, with economic devastation threatening to exceed that of the 2008 global financial crisis. In this toxic psychological environment, when non-stop news, especially in social media, amplifies fantastical, scurrilous, unsubstantiated rumours by insensitive officials or block-brained conspiracy theorists, attitudes harden and antagonisms ossify. Indigenous nationalism flares in vicious circles.

It takes no cleverness to inflame feelings with glib rhetoric or political insults. Rational people must work together, not allow fringe invective to erode the capacity to fight a common enemy.

Containment of the polemic will be more challenging than containment of the coronavirus; the latter likely to burn out before the former. If so, Chinese views of America, and American views of China, are only going to deteriorate further, to the detriment of all. Enlightened leadership should temper, not inflame, indigenous nationalism. We cannot allow mutual exhaustion to be our last hope.

Trump stops calling coronavirus ‘Chinese virus’ and says Asian-Americans not to blame for outbreak https://youtu.be/7DbgSMD847Q

China’s vision of “a community with a shared future for mankind”, exhorting all nations to act for the common good, fits our turbulent times. For this reason, China should resist finding this phrase turned into a cliché or satire, catalysed inadvertently by endless repetition or forced conformity into a single expression or translation.

Why not encourage various expressions, enabling officials and experts to use their own words, thereby enriching the vision, keeping it fresh and timely?

Originally, the English translation was “a community of common destiny for mankind”, which is more literal and rather elegant. But then, I was told, “destiny” was deemed to be too passive or fatalistic, not sufficiently proactive and positive, which led to the less literal “shared future”. “Shared future” is an evocative phase, reflecting Chinese tradition and offering hope for a better tomorrow.

Yet with constant repetition, “a community with a shared future for mankind” can begin to sound, paradoxically, like an exclusive Chinese mantra, and thereby can begin to elicit, in some countries or cultures, negative emotions, instead of conveying positive contributions.


Labels carry messages – and some interpret China’s phrase as seeking to get the whole world to march under its national banner. This misreads China, but by triggering resistance, the static phrase undermines China’s capacity to help bring about in reality such a community of common destiny or shared future.

China’s vision is a universal message shared by many cultures and China might reach out for similar ideas. China’s challenge is to express the vision in language with which other cultures can identify and feel comfortable supporting.

To be clear, read literally and without bias, a “community with a shared future for mankind” is a powerful exhortation that should benefit the world. That is why the phrase should be protected and enriched by also allowing other, diverse English phrases to represent the original Chinese.

A third of coronavirus cases may be 'silent carriers', classified Chinese data suggests
https://youtu.be/S31-qL_Ax5E

The objective is to enable the global community to take collective ownership of the grand vision. Given the global pandemic, the global community must take collective ownership.

Here are three other possible expressions, the first more literal, the second and third taking more explanatory licence: humanity is a community of common destiny (a shared future); humanity’s common destiny (shared future) is the guiding principle of our times; and, recognise humanity’s common destiny (shared future) to build a global community.

What China seeks is what humanity needs, especially with the pandemic, and it behooves people of goodwill everywhere to work together to transform rhetoric into reality. - South China Morning Post.

By Robert Lawrence Kuhn, a public intellectual and international corporate strategist, won the China Reform Friendship Medal (2018)


Robert Lawrence Kuhn is a public intellectual, international corporate strategist and investment banker, and a China political/economics commentator featured on the BBC, CNN, Bloomberg. For more than 25 years, he has worked with China’s leaders. He has published over 30 books, including How China’s Leaders Think (featuring President Xi Jinping), and The Man Who Changed China: The Life and Legacy of Jiang Zemin. He is the host of Closer to China with R.L.Kuhn on CCTV News.

Coronavirus outbreak Coronavirus outbreak: All stories | US-China relations | US-China trade war | US-China trade war: Opinion | US-China trade war: All stories | Belt and Road Initiative | Belt and Road: Comment | China leadership

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Read more:

New York State has nearly 60,000 confirmed cases

https://youtu.be/t2Pm4H7nLzE

Chinese experts, netizens offer advice to help US combat coronavirus

The US, the new epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic with the highest infections of over 100,000 now, should announce stringent lockdowns in the worst-hit regions and accelerate testing and hospitalization to curb the spread of the virus, which might help save time wasted from previous buck-passing, Chinese experts said.

Wuhan's manufacturing back on track as industrial powerhouse lifts lockdown

Wuhan – the industrial city in Central China's Hubei Province where the coronavirus first emerged in the country – is restarting commercial and production activities following a two-month lockdown. The sprawling city is likely to revive its pillar manufacturing industry soon although it faces labor shortages.


Related posts:

Viral diplomatic wars: Trump’s labelling of Covid-19 as a ‘Chinese virus’ earlier this month has infuriated Beijing and ethnic Chinese w...
https://youtu.be/uR_LfkGwBG8 As readers will recall from the earlier article (above), Japanese and Taiwanese epidemiologists and pharma
The first clinical trial of the novel coronavirus vaccine in China has kicked off as volunteers taking part in the project started to sh...
 

Searching for Covid-19’s origin

Viral diplomatic wars: Trump’s labelling of Covid-19 as a ‘Chinese virus’ earlier this month has infuriated Beijing and ethnic Chinese worldwide.
https://youtu.be/iHCAKJ-eaVQ

American scientists: Wet market in Wuhan is not the origin of COVID-19

https://youtu.be/EsTcmaL-_ek

https://youtu.be/7LPoB4E91C4

https://youtu.be/5qWdAwozpu8

 

Trump’s ‘China virus’ label spurs researchers to intensify investigations and some probes are pointing in the direction of the US.


PRESIDENT Donald Trump’s labelling of Covid-19 as a “Chinese virus” earlier this month, which infuriated Beijing and ethnic Chinese worldwide, has prompted researchers to intensify investigations into the origin of the novel coronavirus.

The label, seen as racist and xenophobic, has backfired and does not seem to help the US leader score political points amid the accelerating spread of Covid-19 in the US and the election fever.

In the US, Trump has infuriated his own supporters among the rich Chinese-Americans who have made vast contributions to his campaign funds in his bid to seek a second presidential term.

Under pressure, Trump has stopped using the label since last week. The reaction from Beijing towards the questionable label was strong and immediate. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said “China is strongly indignant at and firmly opposes US stigmatisation” and urged the US “to stop making groundless accusations against China”, the Xinhua news agency reported.

The reaction from ethnic Chinese in Malaysia has been that of disgust and disbelief. But it is the innocent Chinese in America who have had to bear the brunt – mentally and physically.

After Trump’s labelling that cast aspersions the virus had originated from China, cases of racist attacks against Chinese in the US emerged, according to media reports.

In one case, a 12-year-old Asian American boy in Los Angeles was badly beaten by his classmates. In another, a Chinese woman was cursed by a total stranger scolding her for “bringing in the virus”.

Trump’s “China virus” label has caused intense anxiety to the Chinese in the US and this could be seen in posts on social media. In one video, Chinese-Americans are advised to start arming themselves against possible racist attacks.

Arcadia Firearm & Safety in San Gabriel Valley, an area with a high concentration of Chinese immigrants, reportedly saw gun sales rising 10 times in recent weeks.

While the lay people of Chinese ethnicity seem helpless, Beijing appears to have geared up its propaganda machinery to prove that the Covid-19 virus did not originate from China.

Global Times believes this whole anti-China exercise is a public opinion war waged by Trump to “distract attention of the American people away from his failings to deal with the spread of the highly contagious coronavirus in the US”. And China has been made a convenient scapegoat. The official mouthpiece of the Chinese government, in an editorial early last week, reminded the Trump administration to “respect science” before making any conclusion on the origin of the Covid-19 virus.

Although Wuhan was the first place in the world to suffer the Covid-19 epidemic in January, the World Health Organization (WHO) has maintained that the origin of the virus has yet to be identified.

Interestingly, China’s stance has been given unexpected support from scientists in the Trump administration.

The disease expert leading the Trump administration’s response to coronavirus has distanced himself from the “China virus” label.

Dr Anthony Fauci, the director of National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, in an interview with the prestigious Science magazine last Sunday, said he disagreed with the substance of Trump’s message as it could lead to “some misunderstanding about what the facts are about a given subject”.

The expert declared he has not named Covid-19 as “China virus” or “Chinese virus”, and “will never” call it “China virus”.

Perhaps, the most powerful contradiction to Trump’s “China virus” label has come from Dr Robert Redfield – the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the US. When questioned at a House hearing, Redfield agreed that it was “absolutely wrong” for Trump to label the 2019 novel coronavirus as the “China virus”.

In addition, he reportedly admitted to US Congress that some Americans who seemingly died from influenza last year were subsequently tested positive for Covid-19. A total of 200,000 were reported to have died from this influenza outbreak that started in September 2019.

Then there were reports that alleged that five sick US army officers might have been responsible for the spread of the virus to China during the 2019 Military World Games held in Wuhan during Oct 18-27 last year.

The five were hospitalised in Wuhan for an “unknown sickness”, and very soon after they were ferried back to the US by a plane specially sent from Washington.

Based on these reports and Redfield’s admission to US Congress, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian suggested on March 12 that the US army might have brought the Covid-19 disease to Wuhan.

“When did patient zero begin in US? How many people are infected? What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your data! US owe us an explanation!” Zhao had tweeted aggressively.

Chinese netizens, now naming Covid-19 as the “Trump virus” in retaliation to the “China virus” label, are challenging Washington to allow WHO officers to conduct independent investigations, if there is nothing to hide.

More recently, the findings of an American investigative journalist and his friends have become juicy materials against the US.

According to Global Times, George Webb from Washington DC, in his videos, claimed that Maatje Benassi, an armed diplomatic driver and cyclist who was in Wuhan for the 2019 Military World Games, could be patient zero of Covid-19 in Wuhan.

She and other US army officers had allegedly visited Wuhan’s famous wildlife market and other sites. But the most intriguing part of Webb’s findings is that within the US army delegation, there was another female officer who had worked in Fort Detrick.

According to Wikipedia, Fort Detrick, located in Maryland, was the centre of the US biological weapons programme from 1943 to 1969. From 1969, Fort Detrick has continued defensive research into deadly pathogens, including the Ebola virus and the highly toxic poison ricin. It has been involved in testing possible vaccines for the deadly virus Ebola.

According to a news report on Aug 6 last year by Britain’s online news portal The Independent, the lab research at Fort Detrick was ordered by the CDC to shut down in July 2019 due to “failures in handling the dangerous pathogens inside” and “fears of escape”.

As the outbreak of influenza in the US in September came soon after the closure of Fort Detrick, this coincidence in time has prompted Chinese netizens to urge the US to release the health and infection information of the US military delegation that had come to Wuhan in October.

Still, despite all these findings that seem to point towards the US as the most probable birth place of Covid-19, more credible and confirmatory conclusions can only be drawn from the findings of scientists from WHO and other reliable bodies.

By HO WAH FOON


 Read more: 

The Whole Truth

https://youtu.be/ZbzFRkN2-9c


 
 https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-cdc-director-admitted-virus-deaths-miscategorized-flu/5706233

The US has been lying all along. 

Robert Redfield, CDC director, testifying to Congress, today admitted that virus deaths have been miss categorised as the flu.
He also stated that the standard practice has been to first test people for the flu and, if the test is positive, they stop there. They don’t test for the coronavirus.
So Japan and Taiwan were correct. Many of the US deaths attributed to the flu were actually from the coronavirus.
One Senator asked Redfield if post-mortems were performed to learn the cause of death, and he stated that such were done, and they revealed mis-diagnoses.

Finally, US Center for Disease Control (CDC) Director has said that the "Flu" that started in early 2019 and killed many in US were actually wrongly diagnosed. The patients were not tested and misclassified as Flu. Now, as test become available, they have been reclassifiedAs the virus infection occurred much earlier in US before the outbreak in Wuhan, Covid-19 cannot be said to start from China. US is the country of origin for the virus.TRUMP and POMPEO were wrong to smear China and blame China for starting the pandemic: https://www.globalresearch.ca/us-cdc-director-admitted-virus-deaths-miscategorized-flu/5706233


Covid-19 (coronavirus): Asia's darkest hour



US urged to release health info of military athletes who came to Wuhan in October 2019

Chinese netizens and experts urge the US authority to release health and infection information of the US military delegation which came to Wuhan for the Military World Games in October to end the conjecture about US military personnel brought COVID-19 to China.

Civil complaint, lawsuits filed from Wuhan against US over racist terminology hard to proceed

Multiple civil complaints are surfacing in Wuhan as citizens are resorting to means from lawsuit to cosigned petitions to demonstrate their anger against some US politicians blaming the novel coronavirus outbreak on China.

Virus-plagued US still playing politics: Global Times editorial

China's determination to reunify Taiwan is unshakable, and whoever acts against it will end up in ruins. The DPP must not have any illusion about this.



Coronavirus pandemic accelerated as West’s sense of superiority caused failure to act promptly and lies about China

The West is trying to deflect blame, exacerbated by a mind-set which interprets disease outbreaks not as an inevitable aspect of the human condition, but something belonging to exotic, oriental and poorer nations.



Related posts:

Coronavirus pandemic updates: Rise of US white supremacy portends new cold war or worse?



https://youtu.be/uR_LfkGwBG8 As readers will recall from the earlier article (above), Japanese and Taiwanese epidemiologists and pharma

https://youtu.be/Y_dU2RCqWs4 FORCED TO SHUT DOWN WHEN VIRUSES LEAKED AUGUST 2019    US SOLDIERS WERE INFECTED 300 HUNDRED CAM.

https://youtu.be/A8v3GYnlXww https://youtu.be/llgCCybOZoA https://youtu.be/p7Pz_Dmxz48   Coronavirus death toll, infections a..

https://youtu.be/NHKs8clA4GI https://youtu.be/_zElnBGUj-w https://youtu.be/_mSwlPKFjQM https://youtu.be/8WkAZ5FzttM https...

> https://youtu.be/kVV4udIphcM https://youtu.be/IRkXhR4SiIQ https://youtu.be/OIvAmcQtdF0 https://youtu.be/KnI9c4_xu8w ...

https://youtu.be/C0IRZW3V9oM   - Western Media Lies about China //  关于中国的谎言 China is Getting Smarter //  中国越来越聪明了!   https://youtu....

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Stimulus packages avert 1930s-style depression but cannot prevent business closures, save jobs as supply-demand dynamics collapse

Click to Enlarge

 Malaysia's RM250bil Funding the fight against Covid-19; Penang unveils RM75mil economic stimulus package 

WHEN the conoravirus (Covid-19) first hit the news sometime in December last year, nobody would have thought that it would lead to a global crisis. Two weeks ago, many were staring at a 1930s kind of depression as the world was hit by the perfect storm.

Global trade and supply chain were only getting to terms with the end of the prolonged US-China trade war, when it was hit by a combination of the Covid-19 pandemic and collapse in crude oil prices.

The perfect storm for capital markets that comes once in a decade started to unravel.

The 2008 financial crisis broke down the US financial system. The banks in Malaysia were well prepared for the crisis after having overcome similar problems in 1998. It was different in other parts of the world, especially the United States and Europe. The Federal Reserve and the European Union printed money and other measures to save the banking system.

This perfect storm of 2020 has dismantled the fundamental pillars of global economy – the forces of supply and demand. The consequences are being felt at businesses – whether small or big.

Demand has collapsed overnight across the economy. From tourism to travel, manufacturing to logistics and food and beverage businesses were all forced to shut down to combat Covid-19.

Supply chains continue to be disrupted. Logistic companies are operating at a quarter of their capacity. Factories are shut down because of inadequate components or raw materials. The Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers (FMM) contends that cargo is not moving out of ports as fast as it wished to.

Governments had no choice but to announce stimulus measures, which would help alleviate the hardship suffered by workers and companies affected by the strict measures undertaken by the government to contain the virus.

So far, the centrepiece of Malaysia’s stimulus package is to suspend mortgage and hire-purchase payments on houses and vehicles for six months. Those with credit card repayments can convert their outstanding balances to term loan.

Another firepower that the government has unleashed is handing some RM10bil into the hands of the people. The money will come in direct handouts to people in the B40 and M40 groups, civil servants and individuals.

Like many other stimulus packages, the government has also allocated RM5.9bil to subsidise the wage bill of 3.3 million workers earning less than RM4,000 per month. The subsidy of RM600 will go on for three months provided the company does not retrench the workers or cut their salaries.

Some RM54bil are available for businesses affected by the restrictions on operations imposed to contain the Covid-19 pandemic. Among the beneficiaries are those in the services sector from restaurants to logistics companies and some small and medium enterprises in the manufacturing sector. The companies now are able to tap on government guaranteed loans under procedures that are supervised by Danajamin.

The benefits, especially the six-month suspension of mortgage and hire-purchase loans would easily increase by more than 50% of the disposable incomes of some 80% of families.

The additional measures announced yesterday would capture the informal workforce who are out of the financial system. Those without a car or housing loan would get something from the government to help tide over the tough period.

The measures are a relieve to stop the economy from going into a tailspin. It is to inject confidence and ensure people keep spending so that we do not end up in a 1930s kind of depression. It is needed to ensure the group of people who have been paying loans are comforted that they have money to put food on the table.

Anybody still debating on the benefits of the moratorium on loans, should know that cash money in hand today is more valuable than having the same amount a year from now.

Interest rates for mortgages and hire purchase are already low and will be low for the next few years. It will not make a difference if loans are to be extended by another six months.

So if anybody wants to give you money at low interest rates, just take it and settle the more expensive loans such as personal financing and credit card bills, unless you have so much money that you don’t need the extra cash flow at the moment.

However, the synchronised stimulus packages around the world would not resuscitate the collapse in the supply-demand forces of the economy. It would neither stimulate demand nor help prompt supply over the longer term.

The stimulus package has given Malaysia a six-month grace period to adjust to the reality of the new economic world. It may take up to a year before things get back to normal. Until then, businesses will continue to suffer and unemployment will go up. Certainly, companies are not going to hire for some time, even in services such as restaurants and retail outlets.

People are not going to frequent restaurants and splurge on non-essential items until they are sure that their jobs and income levels are secure. Spending patterns will change as nobody knows how long it would take for normalcy to emerge.

In the meantime, companies will not know how many staff to retain. A logistics company operating in the KL International Airport is only running four out of the 70 lorries. The company’s fleet of courier vans servicing international clients is still ongoing but the number of trips are reducing.

The owner has told employees that they would get their full salary for the month of March and half salary in April if the Movement Control Order continues beyond mid-April as cash flows are reduced.

The magnitude of the problem is bigger in larger companies. Take for instance AIRASIA Group that employs 29,000 people. Based on the 2018 annual report, its staff cost is RM1.7bil and leasing charges are a further RM1.2bil. It has cash of RM3.2bil. Generally, its burn rate is easily RM250mil a month.

AirAsia has suspended operations in Malaysia until April 21. Assuming operations start after April 21, it is not going to be normal as many countries are in lockdown mode. People are not going to travel unless necessary. The question is how long can AirAsia keep paying staff full salaries?

The common theme in the stimulus packages of the countries is to put money in the hands of the people through various measures, which Malaysia has done.

The United States wants to send out cheques to households while the UK will bear 80% of wages up to a sum of £2,500 per month.

Even Italy, which is the country that is hardest hit by Covid-19 in Europe, came up with a US$28bil package that includes suspension of any firing procedures. The government has said that nobody must lose their jobs because of the virus.

It is easy for the government to say that nobody should lose their jobs because of Covid-19 pandemic. It is hard for the private sector to keep paying staff salaries and prevent closures if the supply-demand dynamics is not mended.

The supply-demand forces in the economy will only come back when the Covid-19 threat abates. Make no mistake about the reality.

The views expressed are the writer’s own.

By M. Shanmugam



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