src='https://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/js/adsbygoogle.js?client=ca-pub-2513966551258002'/> Rightways Infolinks.com, 2618740 , RESELLER

Pages

Share This

Friday, March 25, 2016

Chinese hacker pleads guilty, deserves respect whether guilty or innocent


A Chinese national named Su Bin pleaded guilty in the US on Wednesday to conspiring to hack into the computer networks of several major US defense contractors to obtain sensitive information, according to a US Department of Justice statement. The information allegedly includes technical files about F-22 and F-35 fighter jets and C-17 military transport aircraft.

The statement says "Su Bin admitted to playing an important role in a conspiracy, originating in China," where he has two accomplices. Some US media have conjectured that the two accomplices must be Chinese military personnel.

Su was arrested in Canada in July 2014, and was handed over to the US this February. The Chinese government has denied any involvement in Su's case, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has asked the US to ensure the privacy and legal rights of Chinese citizens on US soil.

Plea bargaining is a common US judicial practice. Defendants can plead guilty in exchange for softer punishments. The disadvantage of this practice is that it is hard to know what the defendants truly think, and whether there might be any wrongs in the judgments.

Every country is gathering intelligence. The largest and most well-known information-collecting agencies are the CIA and FBI in the US. The FBI has even listed China as their top target. Recent years have seen the FBI arresting quite a few "Chinese spies," but most of them proved to be innocent. In the meantime, China has kept a low profile in reporting the exposure of US spies out of various considerations.

In most cases, governments won't acknowledge these spies after they have been caught. For example, whenever China intercepted spies from Western countries, the governments they served routinely denied any connection and even mobilized the Western media to attack China's human rights and win over sympathy.

We have no reliable source to identify whether Su has stolen these secrets and transferred them to the Chinese government. If he has, we are willing to show our gratitude and respect for his service to our country. On the secret battlefield without gunpowder, China needs special agents to gather secrets from the US. As for Su, be he recruited by the Chinese government or driven by economic benefits, we should give him credit for what he is doing for the country.

If Su was wronged and forced to plead guilty, he should have our sympathy. As the "war of information" between China and the US continues, there will probably be more Chinese framed as spies and jailed in the US. This is a tragedy of the times, and we hope the Chinese working in sensitive professions in the US can protect themselves.

At the helm of international public discourse, the US is able to define whether certain activities are espionage or not. When US espionage is exposed, the US media will try to divert public attention and tone down the case. But when the CIA or FBI catches suspects, hyperbole about these cases makes headlines in US media.

The most infamous case is that of Edward Snowden, who revealed the global US surveillance program PRISM. The whistleblower is wanted by the US government, which refuses to reflect on its behavior, but keeps criticizing China for espionage without solid proof.

China lags behind the US in technology. The existence of US cyberspace military forces is openly known to the public, and its capability is way higher than Chinese "hackers." But it doesn't mean that China cannot fight back in the face of ill-founded US accusations of Chinese spies. China should uncover Washington's brazen hypocrisy with concrete evidence. - Global Times

Related posts:
 
 
Jun 23, 2013 ... Revelations about PRISM, a US government program that harvests data on the ... against the US Internet surveillance program of the NSA, PRISM, .... US Spy Snowden Says U.S. Hacking China Since 2009 ... Labels: civil liberties , Computer hackers , Cyber Attacks , Edward Snowden , Espionage , FBI ...
 
May 21, 2014 ... Documents leaked by former Central Intelligence Agency contractor Edward Snowden detailed the National Security Agency's (NSA) ...
 
 
 
May 20, 2014 ... After the Prism program leaked by Edward Snowden, the United States was accused by the whole world. However, it has never made ...
 
 
Oct 31, 2013 ... ... intelligence whistleblower Edward Snowden.A top secret map dated August 13 , 2010 lists nearly a hundred surveillance facilities worldwide, ...
 
Jun 4, 2014 ... In June 2013, Edward Snowden, a former US National Security Bureau contractor, revealed US intelligence agencies were conducting ...
 
May 22, 2014 ... ... charging five Chinese nationals of alleged commercial espionage, citing Edward Snowden's revelations of US spying operations worldwide.
 
 
A spokesperson for China's State Internet Information Office on Monday published the latest data of U.S. cyber attack, saying that Chinese... 


As the most notorious surveillance country, the U.S. indictment of Chinese military officers seems almost insolent in a world still reeli...

Thursday, March 24, 2016

BOAO Forum 2016: Asia's New Future - New Dynamics, New Vision





http://t.cn/RqvW8Fw

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivers a speech at the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference in Boao, South China's Hainan province, March 24, 2016.[Photo by Zou Hong / chinadaily.com.cn]

Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday relevant parties should try to complete negotiations of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) within this year.

The statement is an injection of confidence into Asia-Pacific, which since last year has been hit by slowing growth, plunging commodity price and depreciation of local currencies. Li made the comments at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference.

RCEP is a proposed free trade agreement (FTA) between the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the six states: Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand. RCEP negotiations were formally launched in November 2012 at the ASEAN Summit. The final round of negotiation is expected to be held in Laos in September.

"The economic situation is not optimistic, but the confidence cannot be shattered. The region, which has experienced two financial crises in the past, is not what it used to be. Contributing to one third of the global trade last year, Asia remains the most dynamic region in the world," he said.

Developing countries in the region last year grew 6.5 percent in GDP, contributing 44 percent of the world growth, according to him.

Premier vows to implement 'Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect'

Premier Li Keqiang on Thursday vowed to implement the "Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect" program within this year.

"We'll launch the Connect at an appropriate time within this year," Li said at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference.

The statement is a further indication of central government's resolve to launch the program to facilitate cross-border securities investment. Li said last week at the closing of annual legislature session that China will "work toward the launch of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect within this year".

China opened the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect at the end of 2014. Plan to further expand cross-border investment activities was delayed by the stock market rout last year.

China will adopt measures if economy runs out of 'reasonable range'

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday that the government will resolutely take comprehensive measures if the economic growth slips out of the "reasonable range."

He said the government will prevent the loss of speed and maintain economic growth within a reasonable range.

Li made the remarks at the opening ceremony of the 2016 annual conference of Boao Forum for Asia in the country's southern island province of Hainan.

No foundation for the yuan's long-term decline, says Li

Premier Li Keqiang said at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference on Thursday that there's no foundation for a long-term decline in the value of the yuan.

"The renminbi will stabilize at a reasonable level, and China is a responsible world power," said the premier.

Such stress comes as markets are concerned about the yuan's slump as a way to boost exports.

The country's fundamentals have ruled out the possibility of a long-term depreciation, the premier stated at the forum.

The 2016 Boao Forum for Asia is held in South China's Hainan province from Mar 22 to 25. The annual conference aims to open the floor to discuss Asia's New Future, New Dynamics, and New Vision.

Premier calls on Asian countries to be good neighbors

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Thursday that Asian countries should keep peace and stability in the region and work together to maintain Asia as the key driver for the world economy.

One important reason why Asia had achieved a rapid growth over the past decades is that the region kept a generally peaceful and stable environment, Li said when addressing the opening ceremony of the 2016 Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) in Hainan province.

Dialogue and cooperation is the golden key, the premier said.

He stressed that, inspired by history and experiences after the WWII, Asian countries should be good neighbors and friends and not be disturbed by minor frictions and contradictions, no matter what stage of development they are in.

Citing views that the Asian economy is in a difficult situation, Li called for coordination and united efforts to overcome difficulties.

This year's meeting in Boao, Hainan, from March 22 to 25, is themed "Asia's New Future: New Dynamics and New Vision." More than 2,000 participants from over 60 countries and regions attend the forum. The event features discussions on the macro-economy, politics, entrepreneurship, innovation, the Internet, public well-being and culture.- China Daily

Related:

BOAO Forum 2016: A review of Forum's development since 2001




Related posts:

Ponzi schemes and modern finance Andrew Sheng says when the originator of a scheme to pass on debt to others is also ‘too big to fail’ – ...

Collective and mutual understanding needed to get out of oncoming global deflation   Rajan: ‘We can no longer ignore the elephant in th...

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

The Corruption case in the Youth & Sports Ministry Malaysia is a reflection of broken systems in country

The brazen embezzlement of RM100mil from the Youth and Sports Ministry exposes stark weaknesses in the management of public funds.




THE case of the mid-level civil ser­vant who embezzled more than RM100mil undetected from the Youth and Sports Ministry for years should rightly boggle the mind.

But when it comes to corruption and fraud in the country, most Malaysians aren’t easily baffled anymore. There are more outrageous scandals in our midst, including one best described as the proverbial jumbo in the room.

Still, the misappropriation of RM107mil of public funds by the official is yet another appalling reflection of what has gone wrong in the system.

It does not make sense that the 56-year-old division secretary who was arrested with eight others, including a woman, last Friday, could brazenly make payments to 14 companies for non-existent work without the knowledge of those above or below him.

According to the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), he pocketed at least RM20mil in kickbacks from the procurement fraud operation which began in 2010 and perhaps even earlier than that.

The money from the National Sports Council was channelled directly to the companies and to his bank accounts – all 69 of them.

Surely he could not have done this all by himself. Under the ministry’s standard operating procedures, who were the others responsible for super­­­vising and approving the payments? The perception is they were either grossly negligent or in cahoots with him. And what about the internal auditors? Were they caught napping too?

As Transparency International-Malaysia president Datuk Akhbar Satar has pointed out, the ministry’s internal auditors should have spotted the stealing.

Let’s not forget that this ministry endorsed the Corporate Integrity Pledge under the Anti-Corruption National Key Results Area initiatives with much fanfare in 2014.

The pledge was made two years after allegations on questionable spending by the media and a Public Accounts Committee hearing in Parliament.

Among the issues raised was a bill amounting to more than RM10mil for the 2012 Hari Belia Negara event.

It was for supplies and services supposedly provided by an events management company for rental of tents, booths, stage, lighting and sound systems and performances by local entertainers and three K-pop groups – Dal Shabet, Teen Pop and U-KISS.

The investigations into the embezzled RM107mil are still at the initial stages. The MACC is now following the money trail and questioning more people, including those in the ministry and former senior officials, under Section 17(a) of the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission Act 2009 and the Anti-Money Laundering Act. As for the main suspect, who is under remand for a week along with the eight others, he was clearly living beyond his means.

His audacious showiness and extravagant lifestyle blew his cover.

Among the things seized from his house and office in Putrajaya were 12 luxury cars, a wide assortment of jewellery, including a RM600,000 Cartier ring, paintings, luxury watches and 40 designer handbags.

The MACC has also seized RM8.33mil from the 69 bank ac­­counts. The officer is also believed to have received other kickbacks from the companies in the form of houses, trust fund payments worth millions and supplementary credit cards.

Apparently, he withdrew RM500,000 from one of his bank accounts a day before he was nabbed and used RM200,000 to pay his cre­dit card bills and sent RM40,000 to his son’s bank account in Australia.

Investigations also showed that man and his family had been travelling first class to Australia, Europe and the US at least once a month.

As always, pledges of impro­ving the system are made each time a new financial scandal is unco­vered.

Chief Secretary to the Government Tan Sri Dr Ali Hamsa said the Auditor-General’s Depart­ment would conduct a check on the Youth and Sports Ministry and its agencies.

He said it would cover financial and procurement processes and identify weaknesses.

But, as Dr Ali said, the secreta­ries-general of ministries should have been aware of all expenditure in the first place, as they were effectively chief financial officers.

According to him, there should not be any case where an officer could approve funds without autho­risation from the secretary-general, adding that a circular on this had been issued for some time now.

So why was this not followed in the case of the Youth and Sports Ministry, where there have been se­veral secretaries-general since 2010? The simple answer is the rules are there but they are not being followed, even at the highest levels.

Our system is broken and this is the main reason why corruption is so rampant in the country and the trust deficit in the Government is growing by the day.

Earlier this month, the Sultan of Perak, Sultan Nazrin Muizzuddin Shah, called for corruption to be fought with more determination.

“It must be tackled without bias, without fear and without favouri­tism because corruption is corruption no matter who commits it,” the Perak Ruler said in his speech at the Utusan Business Awards presentation on March 1.

Likening corruption to termites eating into the main pillars of the country, he warned that failure to address the scourge would lead to Malaysia’s certain downfall with citi­zens undergoing suffering like that being experienced in under-deve­loped countries.

“The public must be inculcated with a culture to hate corruption and to reject leaders involved in corrupt practices,” said the Perak Ruler, describing Malaysia’s poor score in Transparency International’s corruption perception index as a cause for alarm.

Malaysia’s current 50th spot is be­­hind Saudi Arabia (48), Jordan (45), Namibia (45), Mauritius (45) and even Rwanda (44). It only scored 50 points in 2015, two less than in 2014.

Last week, Time magazine deli­vered another damning blow on the level of corruption in the country.

In outlining specifics explaining the state of global corruption, it named five countries led by Brazil. Malaysia was second, followed by South Africa, China and Russia.


Along The Watchtower By M. Veera Pandiyan The Star

Associate Editor M. Veera Pandiyan likes this observation by 4th century Chinese philosopher Zhuangzi who said: “The petty thief is imprisoned but the big thief becomes a feudal lord.”

Related post:

Malaysia slides in global Corruption perception index

 

Tuesday, March 22, 2016

The iron lady of the last survivors of Japanese occupation in WWII Part 4

>
The Last Survivors: Yap Chwee Lan 


How Japan Forced Women Into Sexual Slavery 

AT the age of 15, girls were pretending to be boys during the Japanese Occupation in Malaya, but Yap Chwee Lan was bravely rescuing the people of Kampung Baru, Johor, all because she could speak Japanese.

“Every night, about seven or eight young girls from the neighbourhood would come to my house to sleep because they felt safer there. They knew I could speak Japanese,” recalled Yap, now 90.

“The Japanese soldiers would come knocking on our door to ask for young girls and I’d respond in Japanese, ‘ Why do you need women? You need housekeepers?’. They were shocked I could speak Japanese.”

Yap learnt the language from her former Japanese employer, who was a hairdresser in Johor. The then 13- yearold picked up the language quickly, and was even treated well by his family.

Yap’s fluency in their language granted her favour in the eyes of the Japanese, and this ordinary girl found herself holding extraordinary power – the ability to save people.

She managed to save those who lived in her town, Kampung Baru, Johor, by identifying them – in Japanese – to the soldiers who would have killed them on suspicion of aiding the resistance.

And we were there to capture her experiences as the R. AGE crew brought her around Johor to film at locations that hold significant memories during the Occupation. This is for The Last Survivors, an interactive online documentary project that aims to raise awareness to youths about the importance of preserving Malaysian World War II stories.

Listening to her stories when he was growing up, one of Yap’s grandson Sebastian Chew, 18, is glad he didn’t have to experience WWII and the Occupation as he thinks it will haunt him throughout his life.

“I can’t imagine going through everything – from the bombings, hiding, living in fear and when the Japanese made the people dig their own graves in one of the fields and killed them. I don’t know how my grandma did it,” he said.

“That’s why I think it’s important for young people to know about these war stories so they can prevent anything of this sort from happening in the future. It’s cruel and heartbreaking.”

In her teenage years, Yap, whose father passed away when she was seven years old, had to work because her family was living in poverty.

She got married when she was 15, and lived with her husband Chiew Seng Leung at his laundry shop, Kedai Dobi Shanghai, in Johor Baru. Twenty days after their wedding, the Japanese started bombing Singapore.

Japanese fighter jets, based in Johor, would fly across to Singapore twice a day to bomb the neighbouring country. As the Japanese was attacking Singapore, lots of people walked over to Johor for safety. Yap and her family evacuated to Tampoi.

“We packed food and clothes, and placed them on my husband’s bicycle. As we were walking to Tampoi, we were stopped by a soldier because he wanted our bicycle. I told him in Japanese that it was ours and he let us through,” said Yap.

“The soldiers would leave you alone if they knew you could speak Japanese because it was like you were one of them. They’ll have more respect for you.”

Once they were in Tampoi, they sought refuge in a temple along with about 50 other refugees, but soldiers came looking for comfort women. Yap not only told them there were none, but also said she was part Japanese, hoping they wouldn’t come back.

But the next day, the Japanese returned. This time, they were with their general.

Yet, Yap wasn’t afraid. “Strangely enough, I wasn’t scared. He was impressed that I could speak Japanese and praised me, saying it was good because I could help the Japanese soldiers,” she said. He proceeded to ask Yap if they had enough food and made sure they did by sending them rice, sugar and flour so they could cook.

He also offered her a job in Singapore as a liaison officer between the Japanese and the locals. She took the job after the island was invaded, but later learned that the Singaporeans she had liaised with were all eventually killed.

The distance was too much for Yap to handle as well, as she didn’t know if her family was well and alive. She returned to Johor one week later, and things were unfortunately similar to what was happening in Singapore.

Chiew’s boss had been arrested, along with a bunch of other people.

“There were black flags all along the streets,” Yap recalled. “It meant everybody was to stay home, because the Japanese would arrest anyone on sight.”

Those who were arrested were taken to a house in Jalan Abdul Samad, behind what is now the Maktab Sultan Abu Bakar, to be held before being taken to Dataran Bandaraya, where they would be executed.

“When I got to the house, the people were kneeling on the ground, their hands tied behind their backs with thick wire as the Japanese soldiers pointed bayonets at them,” said Yap.

“A lot of them called out my name, begging me to save them. Then the Japanese asked if I knew these people.”

“I said, ‘ Yes, I do’. A lot of them lived in my neighbourhood. When I identi- fied them, they were freed.”

The rest, whom she couldn’t identify, weren’t so lucky. Her mother’s friend’s son was one of the unlucky ones.

“I didn’t see him there, I was devastated when I found out. His mother was crying in the street,” said Yap, recalling the horrors of wartime Malaya.

Those remained were brought to the field. They were asked to dig holes in the ground, sit at the edge of the holes and were shot with machine guns. As the bodies fell in, those who were merely injured were kicked into those holes they had dug themselves and buried alive together with the dead.

While a great number of people died during the Occupation, many more owe their lives to Yap.

Her family, though, remained safe, thanks to Yap.

“Before I went to Singapore, the Japanese general gave me a permit for my family,” she said. “He told me, ‘ If anybody disturbs your family, ask them to report to one of my officers’.”

Today, Yap and her family still live in Johor, where some of the survivors’ descendants still recognise her.

“I was walking around town and suddenly someone called out, ‘ Ah Ma!’. They told their kids that I saved their grandfather or grandmother,” Yap said with a laugh.

By VIVIENNE WONG The Star

Related posts:

  Last man standing in Penang under the Kempeitai duing WWII Part 3

  Malaysian WWII survivors share experience Part 2


'The Last Survivors' recalls Japanese occupation of Malaysia during WWII ...

  Japanese Occupation survivors tell their stories
Feb 16, 2012 ... “The Japanese need to formally acknowledge and admit they committed atrocious crimes during the Japanese occupation of Malaya, and not ...

Great contribution from the Chinese: UN Chief Praises WW2 parade ...
Sep 6, 2015 ... UN chief praises parade, China's great contribution. The world has been saying about Beijing's grand military parade on Thursday, held to mark the 70th anniversary of China's victory in the War of Resistance Against Japanese .... Labels: 70th anniversary of the victory in the World Anti-Fascist War , China's ... 

   Nanjing Massacre remembered! 
Dec 15, 2011 ... Events were staged Tuesday to remember the victims of the Nanjing massacre on its 74th anniversary. Occupied by Japanese troops on Dec.

  WW2 Eastern frontier main battle: China's V-day parade ...

Sep 3, 2015 ... China holds parade, vows peace on war anniversary ... Japanese Aggression ( 1937-45) and the end of World War II, China ... The events ended with 10 air force formations flying over the square and ... Tomorrow, China will be holding a military parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the victory in...

Monday, March 21, 2016

Foreign funds comeback, rising interests in Malaysian properties and equities

Foreign interest in Malaysian real estate picks up: Knight Frank


KUALA LUMPUR: Foreign investors' interest in Malaysian real estate, particularly commercial property, is picking up due to the weakened ringgit, said Knight Frank Malaysia Sdn Bhd.


"What we are noticing is that given the ringgit is currently at one of its lowest (levels) in the last many years, interest in Malaysian real estate is actually now coming back because people feel there is upside not only in terms of capital value appreciation but also the fact that the ringgit will move back possibly to better levels. We are certainly seeing this," its managing director Sarkunan Subramaniam told reporters at a briefing on Knight Frank's The Wealth Report 2016 yesterday.

Executive director James Buckley said it has been seeing interest from the Middle East and the US who are typically opportunistic investors attracted by the currency play here which, combined with the slightly subdued property market fundamentals, makes it a good time for them to enter the market.

"I've got two significant groups coming this week ... one from the US, one from Japan. It's a regular basis now and has been picking up from last year. A lot of them are doing initial trips to understand the market a bit better. They are really focused on commercial investments so the office market, retail market and some are interested in hospitality assets as well," he said.

Buckley said in the past, foreign investors investing in Malaysia were typically from Japan and the growing interest from the US is surprising as the Malaysian market is small compared with the US market.

He said these investors are attracted by the currency and the slight oversupply of office space in Kuala Lumpur.

"It is a good time for them to negotiate some good deals here," Buckley said, adding that most of the foreign interest in Malaysia come from Korea, Japan, Singapore and the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the trend among local property investors is also changing, with interest moving from office space and agricultural land to office, retail and hospitality assets. However, residential property remains the core real estate investment for Malaysians.

"In the global context, interest in commercial property is growing quite strongly. What came out of The Wealth Report is that 47% of UHNWIs (ultra high net worth individuals) are expecting to increase their allocation in commercial property. In the Malaysian perspective, we do see a gradual rise in the interest in commercial property. Particular popular choices for Malaysians are office and retail investments, and they are looking to increase their exposure to these assets over the next 10 years," said Buckley.

He said there is a misconception that investing in commercial property is more complicated while some feel they lack experience investing in this sector but interest is picking up as investors are becoming more familiar with the market and understand better the benefits of investing in commercial property.

The report showed that Malaysian high net worth individuals (65% of survey respondents) have increased their asset allocation to residential property.

Moving forward, 65% of Malaysian survey respondents said they will increase asset allocation to residential property in the next 10 years.

In terms of property purchases this year, 39% of Malaysian UHNWIs said they are considering residential purchases. This is more than 29% of global UHNWIs who intend to buy residential property this year.

On average, Malaysian UHNWIs own more properties (4.7) compared with the global and regional average of 3.7 and 3.92 respectively. As for overseas investments, the top three locations for Malaysian investors are Australia (Melbourne), the UK (London) and Singapore.

Bulls making a comeback


Foreign funds are putting money in emerging markets


HUMAN beings have a natural tendency to fear heights – it’s a natural survival instinct which worked well in the wilderness and in the outback, but one which severely plays against us when it comes to the stock market.

Seven years ago, back in early 2009, these were some of the top financial headlines in the US:

> Georgo Soros says US banks ‘basically insolvent’

No one knew it then, but the Dow Jones was about to embark on a seven-year bull run and would gain some 92% over that period. Riding along was the FBM KLCI, which gained 85% over the same period.

For sure the ride has been bumpy and riddled with sharp corrections. But for investors who held on to their stocks, they would have been rewarded with handsome returns.

For any investor invested in the market – volatility will always be there. But as long as they are able to endure the frailty and fluctuations of the market, the long-term rewards historically outweigh the short-term fickleness.

We have heard it many times before – the best time to own stocks is when sentiment is at its worst,

This was especially apparent in early 2009 when the US economy was on the brink of a banking collapse, In those dark days, there were more forecasts of Black Mondays than predictions of light at the end of the tunnel.

Eng: ‘The market has had a good run since January.’
Eng: ‘The market has had a good run since January.’

The stock market, as always, had a mind of its own. Despite the proclaimation of dooms and the fall of many American banks, the Dow was heading almost on a straight upward trajectory by mid-March 2009. 

Sir John Templeton said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”

That was true seven years ago, 50 years ago, and definitely just as true today.

Logically speaking, what comes down must go up.

Earnings can still be nasty, but doesn’t the market always behave a year forward. At the heart of it all, the market is made up of buyers and sellers. All it takes are a few buyers during a down period to sniff out an opportunity, and suddenly, the market is edging upwards.

It’s the same story with oil prices. Do not expect the coast to be completely clear – for example no more excess inventories, oil demand significantly outpacing supply or the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) deciding to cut production by 50% – before we see oil prices moving up.

By the time these signs are crystal clear, oil prices have made new highs months ago.

In any case, last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that oil prices had bottomed out due to US and other output cuts outside the Middle East-dominated Opec.

The US rig count fell for a 12th straight week last week to a total of 386, its lowest since December 2009 as drillers continue to slash capital expenditure.

Zulkifli: ‘These are still early days of a recovery. People are still sceptical ...’
Zulkifli: ‘These are still early days of a recovery. People are still sceptical ...’

The problem now is that after a seven-year run, investors are getting nervous. Investors have mostly been in a flux wondering where the market is heading. Most investors are waiting for the crash to come. They talk about a sluggish economic outlook, falling earnings, recessions in commodity-heavy nations, slowing growth in China, negative interest rates, the end of quantitative easing in the US, the UK (potential Brexit) and flatter yield curves. 

Has the market stalled and lost some of its stamina? With the expectation only of mediocre growth and low yields, is it time to sell stocks?

Behind the scenes, some under-appreciated indicators are starting to show some light.

First of all, the ringgit has been strengthening – a reflection of foreign money coming back to Malaysia. It strengthened 0.6% this week to RM4.09 against the greenback.

Last week, foreigners bought listed equities amounting to RM1.04bil on Bursa Malaysia, higher than the RM972.2mil acquired in the preceding week. To date, there are some 12 consecutive weeks of total net inflows and brings cumulative year-to-date foreign purchases to RM1.6bil.

For the entire 2015, there was a net outflow of RM19.5bil.

Meanwhile the FBM KLCI closed at 1,703.19 on Thursday, which is also its six-month month high. The seven-month high is 1,744.19 recorded on Aug 3, 2015.

From a charting perspective, a recovery in the FBM KLCI appears to be playing out.

“We reiterate our view that KLCI must close above 1700 levels convincingly to sustain the ongoing rally from 1600, with key upside target at 1710 (March 7 high), 1727 (Oct 19 high) and 1740 (200-day simple moving average) levels. Failure to close above 1700 will see the index continue its short-term congested range-bound consolidation within the 1660-1700 territory,” says Hong Leong analyst Nick Foo.

Etiqa Insurance & Takaful head of research Chris Eng, on the other hand, feels that the market is toppish for now.

“The market has had a good run since January. It may have a few more legs to run, but come April, it will be earnings results in the US, and in May, it will be earnings result in Malaysia. We aren’t expecting very positive earnings coming out, so market may start falling again by April,” says Eng.


From a trading perspective, he would ask clients to sell into strength.

On a fundamental perspective, however, he isn’t expecting a recession, well at least not this year. He would still advice investors to stay invested in equities.

“We are expecting some weakness in the market come middle of the year. That would be a better time to buy. We would identify that weakness and look for opportunities then,” says Eng.

MIDF Research has been recommending its clients to start buying since the start of the fourth quarter last year.

“These are still early days of a recovery. People are still sceptical, especially retail investors. But we have been tracking the money flows, and foreigners have been net buyers every single day of the 14 trading days so far this month, which is a phenomenon not seen in more than two years” said Zulkifli Hamzah, head of MIDF Research.

According to Zulkifli, the Malaysian equity market is benefiting from a tide of global liquidity flowing into Asia. Some of the money is actually global funds in China, being reallocated to other Asian markets as the outlook in Asia’s biggest economy is challenging.

“In the bond market, Malaysia started to look attractive to the foreigners as early as September last year. The low global interest rate environment, with negative rates in some countries, has made local yields very attractive indeed. That is reinforced by the depressed Ringgit,” said Zulkifli.

“Overall, we are positive on the market. Sceptism of the market has been partly due to the relatively restrained climb in the index. But this has been due to selling by local funds, which are understandably taking the opportunity of the market’s upward march to realize their profits. We also do not expect to see such a steep incline in the indices because of rotational forces at work,”

“Global investors are not going to come in and buy blindly across the board although the Ringgit is seen as undervalued. They will be selective and buy only those stocks that they see value. We believe the current uptrend has legs. However, there are potential potholes which may cause temporary retracement, at which point it would be opportune to enter the market,” said Zulkifli.

He added that the changing of guard in Bank Negara and the Sarawak state election would be closely watched by foreigners.

No rate hike is good for Malaysia

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials lowered their view of the economy and said they likely won’t raise interest rates as swiftly as they had previously anticipated as there are lingering risks posed by soft global growth and financial-market volatility.

Policy makers left short-term interest rates steady and said they would raise their benchmark rate just twice this year, after an initial increase in December 2015, down from the four they previously predicted.

Last week European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi announced a much bigger and wider-ranging stimulus package than anyone had expected

He increased his purchases of financial assets by a hefty 20 billion euros per month (from 60 billion-80 billion euros), pushed interest rates lower into negative territory (by 10 basis points), improved financing for the banks and announced his intention to buy investment grade corporate bonds.

In other words, the ECB will pay banks 0.4% to lend. This puts the eurozone in a negative interest-rate situation.

This move inevitably makes Malaysia more attractive.

Recessionary pressures and low interest rates in the US are a boon for emerging markets like Malaysia. This is further helped by economies like Japan and China which are continuing to cut interest rates to kickstart their economies.

With US and eurozone interest rates having stayed in negative territory for so long, and doubts on future rate hikes, investors are getting desperate for yields.

So they come to Malaysia, where the average yield on a 10-year dollar bond is higher by some 140 basis points than a similar US Treasury 10-year note.

Also, after a torrent of bad news, some confidence is returning to Malaysia.

Last month, Fitch Ratings affirmed Malaysia’s long-term foreign and local-currency issuer default ratings (IDRs) at A- and A respectively, with stable outlook.

Malaysia’s senior unsecured local-currency bonds were also affirmed at A while the country ceiling was affirmed at A and the short-term foreign-currency IDR at F2.

The three rating agencies – Moodys, S&P and Fitch Ratings – have given the same credit rating of between A3 and A- with stable outlook for Malaysia.

Bank Negara also announced that Malaysia’s economy grew by 4.5% in the final quarter of last year, which was better than expected. This brings the full-year gross domestic product growth to 5% from 6% in 2014.

The recent stability in the ringgit was also a positive factor for foreign investors, and this has taken away some of the foreign exchange risk of investing here.

The ringgit is the best-performing emerging-market Asian currency over the past three months, having been one of the worst performers last year. Year-to-date, the ringgit has gained 2.05% against the US dollar.

The economy is on a better footing now that the Government has revised its budget based on oil prices between US$30 and US$35, and the country is on track to achieve its targeted budget deficit of 3.1%.

by Tee Lin Say The Star

Related:

Property sector could see a turnaround - Business ...
Door opening in emerging markets

Related posts

Penang has dislodged Kuala Lumpur's Golden Tringle as the top investment choice GEORGE TOWN: Penang has now overtaken the Klang V...
Dec 21, 2015 ... Factors affecting prices - It is not easy to predict trend as the property market involves all kinds of players. THE year 2015 will always be ...

Dec 29, 2015 ... The developers planned to price their mostly residential properties from ... “It will be a slow year for the property market in 2016,” Toh said.



Feb 5, 2016 ... KUALA LUMPUR: The property market is expected to remain challenging, with the hike in house prices slowing to between 5% and 8% this ...