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Monday, October 1, 2018

Trump's tariffs won't restore U.S. jobs

The sewing lines at Bernhard Furniture Company which where skilled craft jobs are growing without the help of tariffs, and company officials

 Related image https://youtu.be/OCk4VkAKKFc

Trump's tariffs won't restore U.S. furniture jobs : https://www.reuters.tv/v/PvWi/2018/09/27/trump-s-tariffs-won-t-restore-u-s-furniture-jobs

In a town where a 30-feet tall chair is the chief landmark, and which is synonymous with a U.S. furniture industry decimated over the years by imports from China, many greet the possibility of tariffs on Chinese goods with a shrug.

No wonder. Of three once bustling Thomasville furniture plants in the city limits, one is being demolished and cleared for parkland, another may become the site of a new police station, and a third is being converted into apartments.

President Donald Trump is threatening to levy tariffs of up to 25 percent on $500 billion of goods imported from China each year, including roughly $20 billion of furniture, as a way to bring back hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs lost to China and other low-cost competitors.

Yet, the transformation of U.S. industries since China’s emergence as the world’s low-cost producer almost two decades ago means many no longer directly compete with Chinese imports, so tariffs may not translate so easily into more U.S. jobs.

At family-owned Bernhardt Furniture in Lenoir, some 90 miles west of Thomasville, executives say it would take about $30 million in capital investment - some 10 percent of annual sales - to resurrect standard wood furniture lines now mainly made in countries like China and Vietnam.

That is too much to commit based on a policy that a future administration could reverse.

"The theory is you turn (imports) off, the jobs come back. That's not really true... The buildings don't exist. The people don't exist. The machinery does not exist," to make the sorts of furniture that now gets imported, said Alex Bernhardt Jr., chief executive and the company founder's great grandson.

What the company needs now, executives say, is the open markets and steady economy that have allowed it to grow its workforce from below 800 at the end of the 2007-2009 recession to almost 1,500 today - partly on the basis of exports to China.

DIFFERENT COMPANY

That growth has been largely driven by demand for more customized, higher end furniture. In expanding, the 129-year-old company has been hiring not only factory workers, but also designers, marketing experts and other professionals.

In all, it is a different firm from what it was three decades ago when it first began dividing product lines between the United States and Asia.

Economists say the same is true across much of U.S. manufacturing. To invest and hire more workers, executives would need certainty, for example, that consumers would prefer U.S.-made products at a potentially higher price. They would need confidence that tariffs would last beyond the Trump administration and that production could not be shifted to other more cost-competitive countries.

Even then, there may be little incentive to go back to old product lines for industries that have changed dramatically because of globalization.

Across the Rust Belt and the former factory towns of the south, the transformation is apparent. In Buffalo, an old steel mill is now a solar panel factory, and a retail goods manufacturer now houses an office and restaurant park. Near Dayton, Ohio, a shuttered GM plant has reopened as a Chinese-owned auto glass company. Abandoned factories throughout North Carolina have landed on the Environmental Protection Agency's list of "brownfield" sites that need cleanup.

Some companies are considering moving production from China as a result of the tariffs, but the jobs are unlikely to head home.

Illinois-based CCTY Bearing, for example, said it planned to move U.S.-bound production from Zhenjiang, China, to a new plant near Mumbai in India to keep labor costs down.

JLab Audio's China-made Bluetooth products are not being taxed yet, but its chief executive Win Cramer had been scouting for suppliers in Vietnam and Mexico.

"I would love to build products onshore, but consumers have proven time and time again that "Made in America" isn't as valuable a statement as it once was," Cramer said. "They make decisions based on the cost."

The price of, say, its Bluetooth earbud would jump from $20 to as much as $50 if it was made in the United States, Cramer said, far more than what tariffs would add to the cost of imports.

To be sure, early reactions suggest that foreign companies that make U.S.-bound goods in China may move some of that production to the United States. Still, countries such as Vietnam may ultimately benefit the most from Trump's tariffs.

Japanese construction and mining equipment maker Komatsu Ltd < 6301.T > has said it has already shifted some of its production of parts for U.S.-built excavators from China. Part of that production moved to the United States, but some also went to Mexico and Japan.

In South Korea, LG Electronics <066570 .ks=""> and its rival Samsung Electronics <005930 .ks=""> are considering moving parts of U.S.-bound refrigerator and air conditioner production to Mexico, Vietnam or back home, but not to the United States, according to company sources and local media.

STEADY RECOVERY

The responses to Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum show how such steps create both winners and losers.

Producers such as U.S. Steel and Century Aluminum have said they will add at least several hundred jobs as a result of the higher prices they can charge.

Mid-Continental Nail, however, laid off 130 workers because of those higher steel prices, and furniture parts maker Leggett & Platt has warned that rising metal prices would prompt it to shift production abroad.

So far, Washington has imposed duties on $250 billion of Chinese imports and Trump has threatened to slap tariffs on all Chinese goods.

Many economists project new tariffs would on balance either slow down hiring or cause job losses in a manufacturing sector where employment has grown by 10 percent over the past eight years without special protection.

(Graphic: https://tmsnrt.rs/2Q1AFUW)

The furniture industry, among the hardest hit by Chinese imports, has added 43,000 jobs since its employment hit a low of 350,000 in 2011, helped by the recovering housing market and strong consumer demand.

Industry officials say skilled upholsterers and other workers are hard to find, echoing the Federal Reserve's concern about the impact of worker shortages on the U.S. economy.

In Thomasville, few expect that tariffs will bring furniture manufacturing back to its heyday, nor does the community need it, says city manager Kelly Craver, whose parents worked in the furniture and textile industries.

Since the recession, Thomasville has become a residential hub for growing nearby cities such as Greensboro and Charlotte. It also has its own mix of manufacturing and white collar jobs.

Mohawk Industries recently expanded its Thomasville laminate flooring facility while the Old Dominion Freight Line transportation firm and the fast-growing Cook Out burger chain have corporate headquarters there.

"We, for the very first time in this city's existence, are going to have a diversified economy," Craver said.

By Howard Schneider, Reuters

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Saturday, September 29, 2018

Open society and closed minds, Trump bragging as UN Laughs at him

 'Leadership has always been about generosity to those who are less well endowed and fortunate than you are. Often, it is not generosity of kind, because that would be buying of votes, but generosity of spirit.' - Tan Sri Andrew Sheng


WHY is it that in the last days of September, 10 years after the failure of Lehman Brothers, the world feels as if it is a dangerous place?


Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers - Wikipedia

The filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection by financial services firm Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008, remains the largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history, with Lehman holding over US$600,000,000,000 in assets. Wikipedia

President Trump’s remarkable speech to the United Nations this week was supposed to re-state the New Order that America has envisioned for the world. And all he got was a laugh.

https://youtu.be/Dqao0PqMgnE

But it was an important speech, because it spelt out more clearly what everyone knew since January 2017 – his Administration is dismantling what America has stood for since the Second World War.

Out goes the vision of a liberal rule-based stable world under US leadership. What replaces it is a “no holds barred” reality show of bilateral “Art of the Deal” negotiations supposedly to solve what is paining America. Never mind the collateral damage on everyone else, even if they are ultimately American consumers. What everyone heard is that the White House does not care too much about allies or enemies, only what is good for America First, trumped by the speaker’s ego.

Speeches to the United Nations has never been about foreign policy. Speaking in front of 193 member countries, the national leader is actually addressing his home audience, a photo-opportunity to show that as a member of the United Nations, your voice is heard by the whole wide world. Accordingly, other than the famous 1960 case of Soviet Leader Khruschev making his point by banging his shoe at the podium, most national leader speeches to the United Nations are boring homilies. They tend to praise themselves, pay due respect to the UN, and expound what Miss Congeniality says in all beauty contests, “world peace!”

What we got instead from President Trump was raw and edged, “America’s policy of principled realism means we will not be held hostage to old dogmas, discredited ideologies, and so-called experts who have been proven wrong over the years, time and time again.” That statement made a powerful indictment of “experts”, because his supporters feel that it is the elite experts that have run the country for 70 years who have let them down.

If America is doing so well economically, militarily and technologically, why should her middle class feel so insecure? And it is lashing out at everyone else.

The answer lies in not what the speech said, but what it omitted. Everywhere in the world, not least in America, the greatest existential concerns are inequality and climate change. Almost nothing was said about both issues, which are stressing societies and pushing immigration from poorer neighbours across borders to richer nations with cooler climates.

Instead, what was decided was non-participation in the Global Compact on Migration, withdrawal from the Human Rights Council and non-recognition of the International Criminal Court. There was also a barrage against Opec, which contains some of the US’s strongest allies. If other bodies like the World Trade Organisation or even the United Nations do not do America’s bidding, then the cutting of funds or withdrawal is a matter of time. Does that imply that the US will now veto every World Bank or IMF loan to members that she does not like?

In short, it is all about anti-globalisation. In the same breath that “We reject the ideology of globalism, and we embrace the doctrine of patriotism,” Trump appeals to the passion and pride of nationalism. “The passion that burns in the hearts of patriots and the souls of nations has inspired reform and revolution, sacrifice and selflessness, scientific breakthroughs, and magnificent works of art.”

Never mind if a lot of that sacrifice and selflessness was by immigrants and new arrivals.

Outsiders who used to admire America as an open society founded by immigrants with new ideas on how to build a more just society and free economy find instead one that has an increasingly closed mind to global issues. It does seem strange that American innovation, entrepreneurship and dynamism which drew continuously on new talent initially from Europe and then the rest of the world is now walling up its borders, physically, legally and mentally.

There are 40 million immigrants in the US today, representing 13% of the US population. Immigrants founded nearly one-fifth of the Fortune 500 companies, such as Google, Procter & Gamble, Kraft, Colgate Palmolive, Pfizer, and eBay. Today, much of Silicon Valley talent feel like working in the United Nations, diverse, noisy and creative.

The irony of America drawing on global talent and resources is that she has no need to pay for it from exports, but can easily print more dollars. In other words, the Grand Bargain of global trade was the ability of the US to pay for real goods and services with something that can be printed at near zero marginal cost. Even the Europeans are now creating a separate payment system outside the US dollar dominated SWIFT system to avoid being punished for “trading with the enemy”.

When contracts of trust are being renegotiated, no one can feel at ease. One can never solve global problems unilaterally or even bilaterally, let alone calls for more national patriotism. And as the English writer Samuel Johnson scribbled in 1775, a year before US independence from Britain, “patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.”

Leadership has always been about generosity to those who are less well endowed and fortunate than you are. Often, it is not generosity of kind, because that would be buying of votes, but generosity of spirit.

This side of the Pacific, there is awareness that the tensions will not go away with Trump or a change in the November elections. What has happened is that the US establishment has put political interests ahead of economic interests, which means that any settlement will have to go beyond economic considerations.

If trade and political tensions are in for the long haul, can the current US market enthusiasm have sufficient strategic patience?

Now we understand why no one is laughing.

Credit; Think Asian Andrew Sheng

Tan Sri Andrew Sheng writes on global issues from an Asian perspective.

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Friday, September 28, 2018

After laughs at Trump, globalism or patriotism?

https://youtu.be/rewri7OdEZA https://youtu.be/QqZv3SLx1oI

US-ROK trade: 'horrible' to 'wins'?

US President Donald Trump delivered his speech loud and clear at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday covering a spectrum of issues, ranging from global security, trade, and above all - his idea of "sovereignty." His bragging also attracted some chuckles among the world leaders. What key messages did Trump fixate on? And how is the international community reacting to Trump's speech and his "America First" policies?

The US has revamped a trade deal with the Republic of Korea (ROK). The new version of the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement specifically aims to boost US auto sale, but its effectiveness remains in doubt. Will this deal set a new precedent for more so-called "US wins" in its multi-front trade war?


NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern Explains Why The UN Laughed At Trump

  https://youtu.be/aYsZv9JXmio 
https://youtu.be/samRCVQTa-M 

https://youtu.be/9lXNF-_cmnM

https://youtu.be/ZjjNKDlwpDc

What's next in the escalating China-US trade war?
 
https://youtu.be/V73Cgcy3dTA

China vs USA: Trade war


https://youtu.be/aHSSDQYaIjQ

Trump’s tariff policy has failed: analysts


After China slammed US President Donald Trump's accusation that China is meddling in the US midterm elections, analysts noted that Trump's behavior shows he has been shamed as his policy toward China didn't bring what he wants but has hurt his supporters.

If Trump discovers he is losing support due to China's trade retaliation, which has hurt the interests of his supporters, then he should blame himself and people who convinced him to impose additional tariffs against China, because it was his administration that started the frictions and led to China's retaliation, Chinese experts said on Thursday.

"We do not and will not interfere in any country's domestic affairs. We refuse to accept any unwarranted accusations against China," Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the UN Security Council at once after Trump made his accusation.

Trump accused China during his remarks at the UN Security Council on Wednesday, saying, "Regrettably, we found that China has been attempting to interfere in our upcoming 2018 elections in November against my administration," CNN reported.

Trump offered scant details or evidence, which came during a session meant to focus on nonproliferation issues. He suggested the meddling attempts came as retribution for the budding trade war he has waged with Beijing, CNN's report said.

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs also responded to Trump's remarks on Thursday. "China has always stood by the principle of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs, and this is a Chinese diplomatic tradition, and the international community knows this," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said at a routine press conference.

"The international community is also clear on which country is most interested in interfering with others' internal affairs," Geng noted. He urged the US to stop making groundless accusations and slandering China, and refrain from making wrong statements and actions that damage bilateral ties and the fundamental interests of the two peoples.

'Not what he wants'

"They do not want me or us to win because I am the first president ever to challenge China on trade," Trump said at the UN Security Council. "We are winning on trade. We are winning at every level. We don't want them to meddle or interfere in our upcoming elections."

However, Chinese analysts disagree with Trump's rhetoric.

"This shows that Trump has been ashamed into anger due to his unsuccessful policy on China," said Ni Feng, deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of American Studies.

"After a series of tariffs and provocations on the Taiwan question, and sanctions on the Chinese military department and personnel, China has continued to retaliate without any compromise and even refuses to negotiate with the US under the current circumstances. So this situation is not what he wants, which is why he is so angry and tries to make new accusations," Ni noted.

The US midterm elections are approaching, and the Republicans are facing a serious challenge and might lose the House after the elections. So Trump is trying to "pass the buck," said Diao Daming, an American studies expert and associate professor at Renmin University of China.

"Blaming China is a good option for him, and some radical Trump supporters will believe him regardless of the truth," Diao noted.

Due to the interdependency between China and the US, China's retaliation will definitely hurt US people's interests, including those of Trump supporters. But don't forget it was Trump who irrationally began the trade frictions with China, and China is forced to retaliate, Diao said.

"If the US people want to blame someone, they should blame their president. If Trump wants to blame someone for losing support or even the elections, he should blame himself and his advisers who urged him to start the trade row, rather than pass the buck to China," he noted.

A Chinese State-run English language newspaper inserted a four-page supplement in the Sunday edition of the Des Moines Register, an Iowa-based newspaper, to highlight the negative effects of the trade frictions Trump launched.

"China is actually placing propaganda ads in the Des Moines Register and other papers, and making them appear like news," Trump tweeted on Thursday.

"According to US laws, foreign media can cooperate with US media," and many other foreign media companies do the same thing. So, accusing this normal act as evidence of meddling in the elections is far-fetched and groundless, Geng said.

However, the US government, the Congress and the media have done a lot to interfere in China's internal affairs on Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet, Diao noted. "This is real interference in others' internal affairs." - Global Times By Yang Sheng


Related:

Trump's 'blame China' midterm strategy won't secure GOP victory

It would be best if Trump could assert a level of caution when speaking at UN headquarters. Fabricated stories and slogans designed to trick American voters will not have the same effect with UN members.


US trade war has no international support

As long as China keeps upholding its opening-up, foreign enterprises, including many US ones, will continue participating in the development of the China market. China should continue cooperating with the Western world and the US on climate change, anti-terrorism, nuclear nonproliferation, global poverty and stabilizing the financial situation. As long as China keeps its development momentum, the US is doomed to lose the trade war.


Sovereignty, equality should go hand in hand, if Trump really means it

There are positive aspects as Trump emphasized the idea of national sovereignty in his UN speech. Meanwhile, it is common sense that sovereignty will only play a positive role if it is pre-conditioned on equality, the basic principle everyone abides by.



China won't yield to US trade stick

We also hope that the Chinese public gets to know the causes and effects of the event and the steadiness of the Chinese government's policies. No matter how long China-US trade conflicts last, China is doing what it should. China is honest and principled and a major trade power with intensive strengths. No one can take us down.


US hysterical in blocking sci-tech exchanges

The US is anxious about its temporary gains and losses. One minute it wants Sino-US exchanges, but the next it worries China is taking advantage. Its relevant policies are bound to change all the time. Its latest decision is like the trade war. Washington's purpose is to drag Beijing down, but it will mostly hurt itself.


China must open up despite external risks

The road to solidarity will reflect the times and China still needs to accumulate experiences. But as long as all of China's policies aim at serving the people, the country's solidarity won't go wrong.
Source: Global Times | 2018/9/19 23:33:40


Thursday, September 27, 2018

Najib's wife Rosmah says she is okay after 13 hours long grilled by anti corruption agency over 1MDB

https://youtu.be/aGMpsnADOpU 



When asked for comment, she said: “I’m okay. Alhamdulillah (Praise be to God).”

Wife of ex-PM questioned by MACC for 13 hours over 1MDB

While MACC investigators question Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor at length, believed to be over the 1MDB saga, a Dubai-based firm wants RM20.69 mil in bling back. The royal jeweller claims that he could bring his exquisite masterpieces to the ex-premier’s wife without having to go through Customs – thanks to officers from the PM’s Department. PUTRAJAYA: It proved to be a long, gruelling day for Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor as anti-graft officers interrogated her for 13 hours.

She entered the Malaysian AntiCorruption Commission (MACC) headquarters here at 9.50am yesterday.

Speculation was rife that the wife of former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak would be held overnight and charged today.

But at 10.40pm last night, Rosmah emerged from the MACC headquarters. Although she looked exhausted, the 66-year-old afforded a meek smile to waiting journalists outside the building.

When asked for comment, she said: “I’m okay. Alhamdulillah (Praise be to God).”

Her lawyers Datuk K. Kumaraendran and Datuk Geethan Ram Vincent said Rosmah would not be returning for further questioning.

“Datin Seri Rosmah has finished giving her statement. I will not comment further,” said Kumaraendran.

On June 5, Rosmah was questioned for about five hours by MACC investigators over a probe into SRC International Sdn Bhd, a former 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) subsidiary.

The latest interrogation is believed to evolve around the 1MDB scandal.

Rosmah looked calm when she alighted from a Proton Perdana and walked past a horde of journalists who converged outside the MACC building earlier in the morning.

Her attire and accessories were the centre of attention, as she had colour coordinated her green baju kurung and tudung with a Loewe designer handbag and wedge shoes.

The last time out, she wore a blue baju kurung and red tudung, with her bright red Versace handbag drawing the most stares.

Throughout the day, her lawyers were seen coming in and out of the MACC building at least three times.

As is the practice, lawyers are usually not allowed in the interrogation room. Both spoke of their long wait as journalists tried to find out from them how long the questioning would take.

This was the second time Rosmah had been questioned by the MACC.

Last Thursday, Najib was slapped with 25 fresh corruption and money-laundering charges. He was granted bail of RM3.5mil with two sureties in his latest court case.

Investigators have not ruled out that Najib as well as other individuals could be faced with even more charges related to the 1MDB case. - The Star

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Still waiting on election promises

Will the Government deliver or are rosy pledges meant to be broken anyway?


PEOPLE are still harping on election manifesto promises which the new coalition has yet to fulfil.

In the wake of the 14th general election, the 100-day manifesto of Pakatan Harapan is being scrutinised.

Does anyone remember the promises made before GE13 or GE12 or any other election before that?

Remember the Penang Bridge toll promises?

Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak came to town and promised free passage across the bridge for motorcycles.

Hours later, the then Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng cleverly upped the ante and promised that the bridge would be completely toll- free.

In Malaysian lingo, we call this ‘wayang’ or political theatrics.

I found it all very entertaining. I looked forward to each retort from the opposite side.

We should not be like children and cry: “But mummy, you promised!”

Now, Pakatan Harapan did fulfil some of their promises.

The Government abolished the goods and services tax and an earnest hunt has begun for those responsible for the 1MDB controversy.

As for the other promises, maybe not yet? Or at a later date?

You cannot fault Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad for being honest. He told the world Pakatan could not fulfil all the promises in its manifesto because it did not expect to win!

So the politicians were just putting on a show and we, the audience, bought front-row tickets to the ‘wayang’.

Dr Mahathir would know. Can anyone remember any of the manifesto promises that were never fulfilled during his previous 22-year tenure or during the last 10 years under Najib?

I don’t and I have been around for more than three decades, starting my working life the year Mahathir came to power in 1981.

If elections were won just on fulfilling manifestos, Barisan would not have been able to rule for 60 years because there has been volumes of unfulfilled promises.

Elections are usually won on negative rather than positive elements.

We have a saying in the newsroom: people wanna read about sex, drugs and rock ’n’ roll.

At The Star Online, stories along those lines get astronomical level hits.

In politics, seats tend to be won by candidates who can portray how bad the other guy is!

People want to be shocked by scandals, not lulled by promises.

So we do not have to lament the unfulfilled promises.

It is a universal issue which is not confined to Third World countries as even presidential elections in developed countries are won the same way.

One which comes to recent memory is the United States’ presidential elections in 2016.

Everyone thought Hilary Clinton would triumph but Donald Trump ran a smear campaign on her.

People heard all about her leaked emails and the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s case on her.

Both candidates spent millions of dollars taking out advertisements in newspapers and on television.

The focus was more on showing how bad the other candidate would be for the country rather than what they would do if elected.

So for all those who are still hung up on Pakatan promises, forget it.

You can shout until the cows come home and nothing is going to happen.

But they still have four years to make good on their promises, before power comes back to us.

They could be saving the best promises for last. Maybe?

Credit: Pinang points R. Sekaran

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