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Showing posts with label Nature. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nature. Show all posts

Sunday, October 6, 2024

Meet the Malaysian tree doctors taking care of our cities' natural heritage

 

Puteri Noorlela (left) conducting a tree risk assessment at a private resort with landscape architect Fariza Firdaus to ensure the safety and health of the resort’s natural surroundings. Photos: Puteri Noorlela Bahrun

In addition to vegetables and shrubs, trees play a role in edible gardens as well. Usually a sign of mature soil and ecology, fruit trees are able to give us fruiting bounties, provide shade and also contribute to the local ecology and microbiomes of soils.

But often, trees are overlooked in the urban setting, and tree care is relatively uncommon.

The Energy and Natural Resources Ministry has set an ambitious goal to plant 100 million trees nationwide by 2025, with one million targeted for the Federal Territories alone.

While these targets are promising, ensuring the long-term care of these trees is crucial for their success and the safety of urban spaces. 

Arborists, foresters and conservationists are not just tree care professionals; they are protectors of biodiversity, climate resilience and sustainable urban growth.Puteri Noorlela (right) and her team using a resistograph at UUM Sintok in Kedah to assess the structural stability of two mature trees near the clubhouse.Puteri Noorlela (right) and her team using a resistograph at UUM Sintok in Kedah to assess the structural stability of two mature trees near the clubhouse.

But how can we inspire more Malaysians to step into these vital roles?

In this feature, we speak to an arborist and a conservation biologist – tree guardians of the modern age – on what their work is like.

A sense of purpose

Puteri Noorlela Bahrun, a certified arborist from the International Society of Arboriculture (ISA) and principal at Raintree Arborist, says being an arborist is a dream job – one in which she can say “no” to the unnecessary removal of trees and help ensure their preservation in urban development.

Puteri Noorlela’s love for trees began long before she knew about arboriculture. Watching forests bulldozed and trees carelessly cut down ignited a desire in her to protect them.

Arborists often describe their work as deeply fulfilling. As Puteri Noorlela says, “Every day we go to work full of passion. We love the trees and the environment, and we’re always excited to check the health of trees before development begins.”

This passion drives many arborists, despite the physical demands and limited public understanding of their role. She adds, “Even on car journeys, we refresh our knowledge, studying the character of trees, assessing defects and determining the possibility of tree failure.”Puteri Noorlela (left) at Selangor Maritime Gateway’s mangroves, determining the bakau tree that will be removed to make way for a boardwalk. They will also identify the ‘mother tree’ to make sure it is protected.Puteri Noorlela (left) at Selangor Maritime Gateway’s mangroves, determining the bakau tree that will be removed to make way for a boardwalk. They will also identify the ‘mother tree’ to make sure it is protected.

She believes that caring for trees is more than just a job – it’s a mission to improve the health of communities and safeguard future generations.

“When you save or care for a tree, you’re leaving a positive legacy that will last for decades. It’s always my dream to help save as many trees as I can, but of course, as an arborist, safety is always first.”

A tree’s best friend

Arborists, often known as “tree doctors”, are specialists in tree cultivation, management and care. They assess tree health, conduct risk evaluations and tree inventories, and manage trees grown in places like eco-resorts, university campuses and urban districts. Using tools such as resistographs, they detect internal decay in trees to ensure safety.

Arborists consult on endangered species and work with developers and landscape architects to preserve and integrate the right trees into urban plans, balancing conservation with development.

Despite its essential role, arboriculture remains underappreciated in Malaysia.

Arborists conducting an advanced assessment to check the structural integrity of a tree at Taman Tugu, Kuala Lumpur. Photo: Raintree ArboristArborists conducting an advanced assessment to check the structural integrity of a tree at Taman Tugu, Kuala Lumpur. Photo: Raintree Arborist

Puteri Noorlela explains: “Twelve years ago, when we said we were arborists, people asked, ‘Arbor-what?’ Today, more people are realising it’s about preserving trees, not just cutting them down.”

With only around 150 certified arborists in Malaysia compared to Singapore’s 600 as of 2024, the profession is still relatively young, but it’s gaining traction in educational institutions.

Malaysian Society of Arborists president Mohd Zailani Jamil stresses that trees are often an afterthought in development, but they are crucial for sustainable planning. Unfortunately, arboriculture is seen as less prestigious than other careers, contributing to the low number of certified arborists.

Career pathways

For those interested in becoming an arborist, the path is somewhat unconventional. Currently, there are no specific arboriculture degrees offered in Malaysia, but universities such as Universiti Putra Malaysia are beginning to offer courses related to urban forestry and arboriculture.

Aspiring arborists typically come from related fields such as horticulture, environmental science or landscape architecture. After gaining relevant experience, they can sit for the ISA certification exam, which is recognised globally.

“The ISA certification is a stamp of credibility. Once you pass the exam, you can work anywhere in the world as an arborist,” explains Puteri Noorlela, who also consults in Cambodia, where there is a lack of certified arborists.

The practical aspects of arboriculture are the best way to learn, she adds.

This nesting lineated barbet, spotted in TTDI Park, which nests in holes bored out by other species on mature trees, is a perfect example of how tree biodiversity can support wildlife in urban environments given enough time and connectivity. Photo: Adam KamalThis nesting lineated barbet, spotted in TTDI Park, which nests in holes bored out by other species on mature trees, is a perfect example of how tree biodiversity can support wildlife in urban environments given enough time and connectivity. Photo: Adam Kamal

“Theory can only take you so far,” says Puteri Noorlela. “You need to work hands-on with trees in the field, understand their biology, and learn how to assess their health. Every tree is different, and you learn something new every day.”

It takes a village

According to conservation biologist Adam Kamal, loving a tree goes beyond appreciating its beauty; it requires understanding its complexity. In the tropics, trees often host their own ecosystem with many insects potentially spending their entire lives on one tree.

“Trees are one-part coral reef, one-part solar panel and one-part building,” Adam describes, illustrating how complex and important trees are to support life, harness energy and provide habitat.

This nesting lineated barbet, spotted in TTDI Park, which nests in holes bored out by other species on mature trees, is a perfect example of how tree biodiversity can support wildlife in urban environments given enough time and connectivity. Photo: Adam KamalThis nesting lineated barbet, spotted in TTDI Park, which nests in holes bored out by other species on mature trees, is a perfect example of how tree biodiversity can support wildlife in urban environments given enough time and connectivity. Photo: Adam Kamal

Tree care is not an isolated field. Arborists today often collaborate with other professionals, including ecologists, urban planners and landscape architects. The future of tree care, especially in urban settings, relies on an interdisciplinary approach that takes into account biodiversity, climate change and human needs.

“We need people who are not just passionate about trees but about the ecosystems they’re part of. Tree planting in general, with no consideration to the life history, can be detrimental and end up releasing more carbon than storing it,” says Adam.

Citizens have a big role to play as well. Puteri Noorlela emphasises the need for respect: avoid littering or vandalising trees and give them space to grow. With climate change, planting the right trees in the right places is our simplest, most effective solution to reduce ground temperature and air pollution. If you can’t plant a tree, she advises, respect and protect the ones we already have.

Building a culture of tree care

To protect Malaysia’s urban forests, we urgently need to cultivate a culture where trees are valued and seen as a vital part of our environment, society and economy. This requires better policies, greater public awareness and a stronger emphasis on careers in arboriculture, forestry and conservation as well as landscape architecture and urban planning.

The next generation must be inspired to take up these roles with a sense of purpose, ensuring that Malaysia’s forests thrive amid urbanisation and climate change. By embedding tree care into national planning and education, we can create a future where trees are recognised for their full value and safeguarded for generations to come.

For more info, visit www.parm.com.my or www.raintreearborist.com. Ready, Set, Grow! is a column brought to you by Eats, Shoots & Roots, a social enterprise with the aim of connecting people to nature through growing food. Follow them on Instagram and Facebook to stay updated on upcoming workshops and events.


Wednesday, October 20, 2021

Learn biodiversity conservation from China

https://youtu.be/n8dEweHrgb8

China makes strides in biodiversity conservation


 https://youtu.be/gb9vAM0xokE

 China releases white paper on biodiversity conservation

 https://youtu.be/kAizYAlUQLg


Green effort: The scenery at a wetland restoration project on the edge of dianchi Lake in Kunming, yunnan province.— Reuters

BEIJING: china has made remarkable achievements in its biodiversity conservation and has made efforts to share its ideas and experiences to support other developing countries, said Qin Tianbao, an environmental law professor.

Qin, director of the Research institute of environmental Law at Wuhan University in Hubei province, said the country has achieved economic growth while protecting its environment.

“china avoids the pattern of treatment after pollution and can provide its solution to the world, especially to developing countries who are faced with the dilemma of balancing their economies and environments,” he said during the 15th meeting of the conference of the Parties to the convention on Biological Diversity, or COP 15, held in Kunming, capital of Yunnan province, from yesterday through Friday.

In terms of biodiversity, china will contribute both ideas and funds to other nations.

President Xi Jinping reiterated the concept of ecological civilisation that features the harmonious coexistence of man and nature in a keynote speech at the Leaders’ Summit of the meeting via video link from Beijing on Tuesday.

Qin said: “This concept offers the world a vital idea that addresses problems caused by industrialisation.”

Xi announced china’s plan to set up a Kunming Biodiversity Fund to support biodiversity protection in developing countries.

china is taking the lead by investing 1.5 billion yuan (Rm972mil) and is calling for contributions from other nations, Xi said.

Qin said: “The fund and china’s large amount of investment demonstrate the country’s determination to be responsible for connecting different countries to curb the trend of biodiversity loss.”

He added that the fund will “lay a solid foundation for global cooperation in biodiversity conservation”.

A white paper on biodiversity conservation released on Oct 8 said that china has established about 10,000 nature reserves, accounting for about 18% of its land area.

He said biodiversity affects our daily lives in terms of food, clothing, transportation and housing.

“For example, no one likes to stay somewhere with only cement buildings,” he added. “We all enjoy colourful sceneries formed by various plants and animals.”

Qin said it’s important to predict risks and prepare for them before it’s too late, so pragmatic goals are needed for biodiversity conservation.

“extreme weather brought on by climate change often happens suddenly, while the loss of biodiversity is a slow change that people don’t pay too much attention to,” he said.

At COP 15, china announced that new environmental protection goals should be both ambitious and pragmatic, and a balance needs to be struck between the two. — china Daily/ANN

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 Chinese diagonal gazelles living in Northwest China's Qinghai Province Photo: Courtesy of Ge Yuxiu

Revival of rare species reflects China’s biodiversity conservation 

Revival of rare species reflects China’s biodiversity conservation 

are familiar to people around the world. However, there are still many stories of rare wildlife species...

2021/10/18 Source: Global Times | Author: GT staff reporters | Column: COP15

 

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 Moral vacuum at the heart of modernity 

 

 

Cute migrating wild elephant herd melts Chinese netizens’ hearts

Cute elephant herd! Turning on faucet and drinking water by turns, snoozing in the fields, the migrating parade of wild Asian elephants wandering for 15 months in Southwest China’s Yunnan Province has become new internet celebrities.

 


Friday, August 13, 2021

China Teaches The US To Treat Other Countries Equally; Elephant dads' dedicate lives to protecting needy giants

https://youtu.be/0jeL_KeXANA

` Difference Frames the World 64.2K subscribers

` You can support this channel by following the link: On Patron:https://www.patreon.com

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 Many people like China's spokesman, Zhao Lijian, for his explicit remarks. We think Qin Gang is a pro version of Zhao Lijian. As the new ambassador to the US, Mister Qin Gang is not a wolf warrior. Instead, he is a Kongfu Panda, lovely and strong. We hope his mission to the US will be a turning point in the relationship between the two superpowers.

Elephant dads' dedicate lives to protecting needy giants


https://youtu.be/4MIqfQv7miM

` For more: https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-08-12...

` Today marks the 10th World Elephant Day, a special occasion to raise public awareness about the protection of the much loved giants. In southwest China's Yunnan Province, a group of dedicated men are trying their best to help the endangered animals. CGTN has the story about so-called "elephant dads." #Elephant #Animal


https://youtu.be/RNxaBbLUWc0 

 

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Cute migrating wild elephant herd melts Chinese netizens’ hearts

Cute elephant herd! Turning on faucet and drinking water by turns, snoozing in the fields, the migrating parade of wild Asian elephants wandering for 15 months in Southwest China’s Yunnan Province has become new internet celebrities.

 

Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Call for investors to protect natural capital


NATURAL resources are the single most important input to the global economy. Whether it is raw materials, water, flood protection, biodiversity or pollination, nature provides most of the capital businesses need for the production of goods and services.

` Schroders argues we all have a role to play in protecting these resources so that humans can continue to benefit from it for generations to come.

` The asset management company describes natural capital as elements of nature that provide important benefits called “ecosystem services”. These include CO2 sequestration or removal, protection from soil erosion and flood risk, habitats for wildlife, pollination and spaces for recreation and wellbeing.

` “Nature provides critical societal benefits to individuals and communities around the world.

` “The combination of soils, species, communities, habitats and landscapes which provide these ecosystems services are often called ‘assets’,” it explains.

` Meanwhile, machinery, vehicles, buildings and other manufactured items are termed “produced capital”, while human capital refers to the knowledge, judgement and experience that we as humans contribute.

` “All three sources of capital work together and form the basis of economic activity,” Schroders says.

` It notes natural capital can be split into renewable and non-renewable categories. Oil, gas and minerals, for instance, are non-renewables.

` It says there’s a critical threshold with these assets: if we deplete its stocks past the tipping point, the capital is no longer renewable. It is therefore crucial to maintain, enhance and protect these resources so that they are available to future generations.

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Cute elephant herd! Turning on faucet and drinking water by turns, snoozing in the fields, the migrating parade of wild Asian elephants wan...
 

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Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Cute migrating wild elephant herd melts Chinese netizens’ hearts

Cute elephant herd! Turning on faucet and drinking water by turns, snoozing in the fields, the migrating parade of wild Asian elephants wandering for 15 months in Southwest China’s Yunnan Province has become new internet celebrities.

https://youtu.be/Vis_Em4vNAE 


VIDEO: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202106/1226008.shtml

 Cute migrating wild elephant herd melts Chinese netizens’ hearts. - Global Times https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202106/1226008.shtml#.YO6yIyXt74M.twitter

 

Elephant herd new darling in China 

 
A HERD of migrating elephants has stolen the limelight from the giant pandas which dominated the most popular position of China’s iconic animals for decades.

The wild Asian elephants’ “adventure” has captured not only domestic attention but that of global too for over a month and there is no sign of fading.

These mammals caught people’s attention after they were spotted roaming at residential areas in Yuxi city, Yunnan province, in late May.

Since then, their movements and daily activities have been the talk of the town, occupying a permanent slot on hot topics chart across social media platforms and gaining millions of followers.

Thousands of articles on the herd bathing in the rivers, feeding on crops in farms, playing in the mud and visiting people’s homes were widely reported.

The act of a baby elephant refusing to take an afternoon nap and kept disturbing its mother that was asleep, the sight of a male adult stopping a fight between two female elephants and the herd huddled together for warmth during thunderstorms melted the hearts of many Internet users.

Making their way through forests and suburban zones, the elephants have marched over 700km up north from their home at Xishuangbanna National Nature Reserve and their destination remained unknown, as of now.

Asian elephants, found mainly in Yunnan, have a small population of around 300 in China.

They move in family units, led by a matriarch.

This north-bound group is identified as the “Short Nose Family”.

The name was given as one of the females has a shorter nose following an injury, according to a special report on China Central Television.

The family of 16 embarked on a “long holiday” in March last year.

They took “a slow” walk and spent nine months to reach Mojiang of Pu’er city, where they welcomed a new member following the birth of a baby elephant.

After a short rest, they moved on again and entered Yuanjiang county of Yuxi city on April 16.

The herd came across a winery and just like some humans, elephants could not resist drinking.

Two of them ended up “drunk” and could not keep up with the others.

Left with no other options, they returned to their original habitat in Mojiang.

The remaining 15 elephants continued to trek up north.

Their journey came to light after news of them entering the residential zones was highlighted by the local media.

On May 27, the herd caught the residents by surprise when they suddenly appeared in a neighbourhood of Eshan county.

A businessman, identified only as Jia, said he saw the elephants from the windows of his tyre shop.

“It was around 10pm, I heard noises on the street and looked out – wow, elephants!” he told the Global Times while sharing the extremely rare experience.

After leaving the town, they carried on the journey and arrived at the provincial capital of Kunming on June 2.

Four days later, a male elephant left the herd and began to wander around the cities alone.

He was captured and sent back to its original habitat in Xishuangbanna Dai autonomous prefecture last Wednesday.

After spending some 10 days in Kunming, the remaining 14 elephants entered Yuxi again and has been moving back and forth within the forest areas.

Drones have been used to monitor the herd’s movement round the clock.

Last week, the local government dispersed over 280 wild mushroom pickers from the forest to avoid the herd, which was heading towards their direction.

Just as all eyes were on the northbound elephants, it was reported that another herd of 17 has made its way to the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden of the Chinese Academy of Science in May.

The mammals left the nature reserve and headed some 100km down south.

Their route ahead was blocked by a river, in which a calf had difficulty crossing the rapid water.

So, the herd moved into the nearby garden and stayed on since May 24.

It is unusual for elephants to leave their habitat.

Experts attributed the elephants’ movement to shrinking habitat and food sources as a result of overpopulation.

Due to a series of wildlife protection measures, the number of wild elephants in Xishuangbanna National Nature Reserve has double-up over the past four decades.

Human activities and climate change were said to be among other reasons.

In general, the experts believed the elephants are in search for new homes. The elephant fever has raised awareness on wildlife and nature protection among the people, who called for more actions to be given to ensure sufficient habitats and a healthy ecosystem for these animals.
 
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Wednesday, December 23, 2020

Time to grow own greens

 

 Effortless Effort—The Eat-All Greens Garden


https://youtu.be/9a-dUO7Qn58

 

A participant trying her hand at composting with a pipe during the chemical-free urban farming workshop by CAP.

THE movement control order (MCO) saw people stocking up on essentials like canned food, rice, noodles and seasoning, but they overlooked the need for greens in their diet.

Perhaps, marketing and buying vegetables would not have been a matter of top priority during such trying times but many failed to realise that one can grow these greens in the tiniest space available.

To teach the public on the perks of having their own greens to cook as well as ways to make these plants thrive under any living condition, Consumers Association of Penang (CAP) has come to the rescue by holding its monthly chemical-free urban farming workshop.

CAP education officer N.V. Subbarow shared how many do not realise about the chemicals that are used to keep vegetables fresh for days.


 Subbarow (in green) showing participants how to make compost using organic waste at the workshop at the CAP premises in Jalan Masjid Negeri, Penang. — Photos: CHAN BOON KAI/The Star

“If you can plant and grow your own vegetables it would be great.

“Now with this pandemic, many are not consuming vegetables as it is considered easier to just eat canned or take-away food.

“There are many preservatives in those meals and in the long run it can cause health issues.

“If one can plant and grow greens in their house, it would not only be good for their health but the environment as well.

“Here we are teaching people the correct way to plant vegetables and how to produce compost to ensure a great yield as well, ” he said at one of the workshops at the CAP premises in Jalan Masjid Negeri, Penang, recently.

Subbarow said the workshop aimed to teach people how to plant vegetables like chilli, okra and other greens.

“We have tested shop-bought vegetables and many times they contain chemicals to keep them fresh.

“Here you know what goes into growing your vegetables at home.

“We have ways in which people can plant their vegetables even if they are living in an apartment.

“These are vegetables that are consumed daily.

“You only need the right soil.

“They can be planted in pre-used pots or containers, ” he said.

Subbarow said the participants were taught to not only plant vegetables, but also on how to keep pests away from plants organically by using other plants to ward them off as well as homemade growth enhancers for plants using fish and brown sugar.

“It can be a whole family hobby, planting and harvesting their vegetables.

“I encourage families to plant now as they can start harvesting in weeks or a few months depending on what they plant.

“This is one way to save money as well, because by cooking two vegetable dishes from your garden, you have covered one meal for the day, ” he said.

Subbarow then taught the participants how to make compost, one being collecting organic waste and making compost in a container.

“Then there is the seven pot system where organic waste is placed in a pot a day with pots marked for each day of the week.

“This helps keep track of your compost and then you can plant something in each pot.

“The third way is where a pipe is placed in the pot with 5cm of the pipe buried in the soil.

“Organic waste is placed in the pipe and the pipe is closed to avoid water mixing with the compost.

“The roots of the plant in the pot will absorb the nutrients from the compost, ” he said.

CAP education officer Saraswathi Devi Odian also taught participants to layer soil in a pot.

“People do not realise you have to mix the soil.

“You need half the pot to be filled with garden soil, the other half has to be equal parts of sand, red soil and compost, ” she said.

Friends Rachel Jasmine Richard and M. Deenadayalani, both 27, were happy to attend the workshop to learn about planting vegetables.

Friends Rachel Jasmine Richard (right) and M. Deenadayalani (left), both 27, feeling the texture of the soil during the free chemical urban farming training organised by Consumers Association of Penang (CAP) at its premises in Jalan Masjid Negeri, Penang./PicbY:CHAN BOON KAI/The Star/25 July 2020.

Rachel said she had planted curry leaves and pandan, but now realised that she did not use the right soil.

“I only used garden soil which is not good enough.

“I now want to plant chillies and will do it the right way.

“I always wondered if I could use the peels from vegetables and fruits, now I know I can compost it, ” said the customer service representative.

Deenadayalani, whose mother loves to plant vegetables, said they have quite a number of greens in their garden.

“I would like to plant tomatoes next, ” she said.

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Friday, November 16, 2018

Environmental impact of cryptocurrency

Ten years ago, an anonymous cryptographer laid out the principles of an online currency that would operate beyond the reach of governments and central banks. — dpa

BITCOIN was supposed to solve the problems of analogue currencies. Instead, it created a new one: an enormous amount of global energy consumption that rivals the power usage of an entire country like Ireland.

According to findings of a new study, the implementation of this cryptocurrency could lead to enough emissions being produced so that global temperatures rise 2°C by 2033.

The study, which was published in the journal Nature Climate Change, found that the hardware and electricity needs of Bitcoin alone could significantly impact climate change for the worse.

“Currently, the emissions from transportation, housing and food are considered the main contributors to ongoing climate change. This research illustrates that Bitcoin should be added to this list,” said Katie Taladay, one of the paper’s co-authors from the University of Hawaii at Manoa.

The technical design of how transactions are processed causes Bitcoin and many of the growing numbers of rival cryptocurrencies to consume an enormous amount of energy in so-called Bitcoin mining centres around the world.

And yet the digital currency Bitcoin is still enjoying hype as one of the greatest financial phenomenons of our time.

The foundation for Bitcoin was laid out 10 years ago when an anonymous cryptographer using the name “Satoshi Nakamoto” published a paper laying out the principles for autonomous digital money.

The ideas it contained were revolutionary: No control by central banks, no national borders.

Instead, a mechanism called blockchain would provide trust and security in the system. In broad strokes, blockchain is a publicly viewable ledger of transactions, each saved one after the other.

But as the cryptocurrency’s wild fluctuations and electricity needs have attracted a lot of media attention, the ramifications of the latter have only recently been brought to light.

In a different article published in May by financial economist and blockchain specialist Alex de Vries, the electricity consumption of Bitcoin was estimated to be around the same as the electricity use of the Republic of Ireland.

De Vries also predicted that Bitcoin could be using as much as half of a percent of the world’s total electricity consumption by the end of this year.

“To me, half a percent is already quite shocking. It’s an extreme difference compared to the regular financial system, and this increasing electricity demand is definitely not going to help us reach our climate goals,” de Vries said.

“With the ever-growing devastation created by hazardous climate conditions, humanity is coming to terms with the fact that climate change is as real and personal as it can be,” said Camilo Mora, associate professor of geography in the College of Social Sciences at UH Manoa, Hawaii.

“Clearly, any further development of cryptocurrencies should critically aim to reduce electricity demand,” Mora, the lead author of the new study warns.

So as Bitcoin celebrates 10 years since its creation and it gains more and more supporters each year, we should probably take a moment and give this energy-sucking technology a re-think. – dpa By AMY WALKER

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Sunday, September 17, 2017

Living at the edge of chaos, climate change is not fake science


Nature’s fury: A car dealership is covered by Hurricane Harvey floodwaters near Houston, Texas. The chaos caused by the hurricane proves that climate change is not fake science. — Reuters

THIS month, two Category 4 hurricanes hit the United States within 17 days of each other. In Asia, North Korea is threatening nuclear Armageddon, and floods and famine are putting thousands of lives at risk from Bangladesh to Yemen. How can one survive in this chaotic era?

A first step must be to make sense of the apparent chaos. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma have proved that climate change is not fake science, but real threats to home and security. When hailstones the size of golf balls hit Istanbul in the middle of summer, even the agnostics accept that climate change is serious business.

The biggest uncertainty that has hit Asia recently is the shock that North Korea has not only developed possibly a hydrogen bomb, but also the missile capability to deliver it even to the United States. This has changed the geopolitical balance not only in North Asia, but globally because it is no longer possible for the United States alone to contain nuclear proliferation.

Physics teaches us that chaos is often a characteristic of transition from one order to another. Chaos is also a pattern in which there is apparently no discernible pattern.

But there is a seismic transition from a unipolar world led by the United States to a multi-polar world of competing powers and ideology, particularly after the 2007 global financial crisis. As the share of US GDP in the world declines relative to the rest, the rise of China, India and increasing assertion by Russia and non-state players like IS means that the United States’ ability to dominate militarily and ideologically is being challenged.

At the same time, increasing stresses from social inequalities and paranoia of terror, immigration and job loss have tilted the United States to become more inward looking. The Trump administration has dramatically begun to dismantle the neoliberal order of multilateral trade and finance that shaped US foreign policy since the end of the Second World War.

There is a raw open division within the United States in outlook and values. The Democratic Left believes in maintaining the old order of moral leadership on human rights, democracy and multilateral global stability and prosperity. The Republican Right questions these beliefs and prefers America First, negotiating bilaterally to achieve that premier status.

Earlier this year, the Pentagon asked the Rand Corporation to conduct a review on “Alternative Options for US Policy toward the International Order”. The key questions for the New Global Order are: Who sets the rules and how binding are the rules?

The study breaks the future order into two camps of rule-makers – the US and its allies or a concert of great powers. Under such a division, there are two conditions where rules are binding – one dominated by the US camp to enforce rules and the other where the great powers agree to a global constitutional order enforced by institutions. The other two conditions where rules are not binding involve a coalition of states aligned to counteract against revisionism and a new concert of great powers.

The immediate problem with the Rand categorisation of New Order Visions is that the existing liberal, rules-based order is not being challenged by others, but by the US itself.

First, after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s comment earlier this year that Europe must begin to look after its own interests, it is no longer clear that America’s traditional allies are going to follow the US leadership when there are serious disagreements on trade, climate change and immigration. It is no coincidence that the largest trade imbalances are no longer between China or oil producers with the US, but between Europe and the United States. Germany alone is running a current account surplus equivalent to around 8% of GDP.

Second, within the Middle East, alliances are shifting almost by the day. The quarrel between Saudi Arabia and Qatar has riven the Gulf Cooperation Council, while Turkey is playing an increasingly pivotal role within the shifting alliances.

Third, North Korea’s bid for nuclear power membership, despite being a small state, means that Great Powers may have to accommodate new players whether they like it or not.

Fourth, climate change in the form of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma demonstrate that nature can impose larger and larger economic losses on nations and regions, which will require global public goods that the current order is neither willing to fund, nor able to agree on how to address. The economic losses from Harvey alone is estimated at US$180bil, equivalent to the annual GDP of a middle-income economy. The existing multilateral bodies such as the United Nations and the World Bank are facing serious resource shortages relative to these new global demands.

The bottom line is that the current order has neither the resources nor the collective will to enforce rules when the human population growth puts increasing competition for scarce water, food and territorial spaces. Chaos arises from the breakdown of rules and borderlines.

In short, globalisation of trade, information and human migration has meant that traditional borders in many regions are becoming non-enforceable. For example, it is 101 years since the 1916 Sykes-Picot Agreement divided up the collapsing Ottoman Empire into British, French and Russian spheres of interest and eventual control. These borders were drawn and enforced by the Great Powers through their military superiority.

Seen from the long lens of history, with the Great Powers being unwilling to put troops on the ground to enforce borders drawn up under the colonial era, these artificial borders are failing.

A hallmark of the times is that even the best of think tanks cannot map out how to navigate through this era of disruptive technology, unpredictable climate and shifting alliances and interests. What history teaches us is that the fault lines will be at the borderlands, at the confluence of emerging forces and stresses.

We should therefore be prepared for not only disruption at the borderlands of physical space, but within the realms of cyberspace.

By Andrew Sheng

Tan Sri Andrew Sheng writes on global issues from an Asian perspective.

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