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Showing posts with label finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label finance. Show all posts

Thursday, March 31, 2022

Financial literacy and technology are key factors, will attract young investors

 

 Building LONG TERM WEALTH with Stocks & Avoid FAKE GURUS | FIRL Podcast 36

Ng Zhu Hann of Tradeview.my shares his journey from London School of Economics, to becoming a long term stock investor and the author of Once Upon a Time Bursa. He passionately writes on his blog, Tradeview.my to educate retail investors on investing and to avoid fake gurus. He also mentions that retail investor participation is at all all time high in 2020. However, he makes the most wealth during the bear market and says dividend yields, earnings and cash flow are time tested theorem that generate wealth and not short term goals.

 

More effort needed to educate the young investing

With thousands of new and young retail investors participating in the local bourse in the last two years, more effort is needed from capital market regulators and the private sector to improve financial literacy, particularly among the youth, say market observers.
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Ng Zhu Hann, who is the CEO of Tradeview Capital and author of “Once Upon A Time In Bursa”, told StarBiz that brokerages and investment banks could not afford to neglect providing first-time retail investors with “the tools to understand the stock market”.
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“Once you lose money, or whatever savings that you have, you would never return to participate in the stock market because you may think the market is rigged against you. That is human nature,” he said.
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According to the Securities Commission’s (SC) annual report 2021 , an investor survey focused on the youth found that only 3% of youths have a high-risk appetite regarding the level of risk they were willing to take for investments.

“This may suggest that risk aversion has set in due to the pandemic,” said the SC survey.
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The Nielsen Company (M) Sdn Bhd was commissioned by the SC to conduct the survey on its behalf.
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However, on capital market products and their associated risks, the survey showed that respondents viewed investments in Amanah Saham Bumiputera (ASB) as low-risk.
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“In comparison, 70% of the respondents perceived stocks and shares to be high-risk. Overall observations suggested that respondents perceived the capital market products as high-risk and this perception was consistent across the demographic profiles,” said the SC survey.
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Ng also noted that according to Bursa Malaysia, following a similar trend in 2020, 63% or about two-thirds of the new 223,249 individual central depository system accounts opened in 2021 were by millennial investors (aged 26 to 45 years of age).
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He pointed out that many of the new millennial investors had lost money when they got caught up in the penny stock or glove stock mania in the last two years.
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“They had no prior investing experience, and lost money, and that becomes a problem. That is why more should be done in terms of investor education,” said Ng.
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Meanwhile, Rakuten Trade head of equity sales Vincent Lau noted that the regulators of the Malaysian capital markets have made many efforts to educate retail investors, in an era where investing via new and innovative digital platforms is the norm.
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“Online resources like Bursa Marketplace have been very crucial in educating new retail investors, which increased tremendously in numbers during the pandemic-related lockdowns in the last two years,” he said.
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Lau also pointed out that with the younger generation pivoting towards buying, selling and storing crypto currencies, Malaysian regulators have been staying in tune with the demands of the digital era with the approval of crypto currency platforms like MX Global, Tokenize and Luno.
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“Digital banks are also coming, and new fintech will enable and attract the younger generation to explore various investment options,” he said.
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Lau pointed out that Rakuten Trade, as an online stock trading platform, has been actively holding corporate and investment webinars.
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Ng said it was not surprising that the youth would view investments in ASB and fixed deposits as low-risk, compared with equities. 

 “If you invest in equities by yourself, without the proper understanding and knowledge, it is just like gambling, right? But I think that equities in fact, is not the most high risk asset class. 

I am seeing a very unhealthy trend of youngsters, who have never even invested in equities in their life, actually jumping into crypto currencies,” he said.
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The SC’s annual report also said RM21bil in investment in digital assets are across all registered digital asset exchanges (DAX) in 2021.
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Digital asset accounts jumped 300% to 760,000 in 2021 (from 190,000 in 2020).
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About 62% of investors in crypto currencies on the DAXs are below the age of 35, according to the SC as at end-2021.
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The regulator also observed that last year, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) became a hot trend among artists and collectors.
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Ng pointed out that unlike crypto currencies which are not regulated, there is a lot of regulation, oversight and transparency when it comes to investing in equities.
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“Compared with less developed markets, I believe Bursa ranked among the best, along with Singapore Exchange and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, in terms of the regulators,” said Ng.
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In the SC’s annual report, the survey also showed that investment decisions of the youth were not based on fundamentals, but mainly driven by socio-economic status, family, friends, influencers as well their perceptions of the products and brands.
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It also revealed that there was also familiarity bias among the respondents, choosing to invest in products that they were already familiar with.
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Ng said while there was plenty of information available on company websites and annual reports, first-time investors may not know how to decipher or dissect the data.
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“They would go for financial investment talks and hope that the guru would teach them, which is very dangerous. The problem is there are many fake gurus today in the market, who just want to make money, and they are not even licenced,” he said.
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Ng suggested regulators could allocate more resources in disseminating financial information via social media, and also working with professional or non-profit organisations to improve financial literacy among the youth.
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“Under the Continuing Professional Development (CPD) framework, perhaps a revision can be done where CPD points can be earned by contributing pro bono, or helping society in terms of improving financial literacy,” he said.

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Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Singapore big dreams of becoming a global cryto hub

Singapore plans to emerge as key player

Easing restrictions: A representation of the virtual cryptocurrency bitcoin. The Monetary Authority of Singapore is against clamping down on crypto. — Reuters

 SINGAPORE: Singapore is seeking to cement itself as a key player for cryptocurrency-related businesses as financial centres around the world grapple with approaches to handle one of the fastest growing areas of finance.

“We think the best approach is not to clamp down or ban these things,” said Ravi Menon, managing director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which regulates banks and financial firms.

Instead, MAS is putting in place “strong regulation”, so firms that meet its requirements and address the multitude of risks can operate, he said in an interview.

Nations differ vastly when it comes to how they handle crypto: China has cracked down on large amounts of activity in recent months, Japan only recently allowed dedicated crypto investment funds – though El Salvador has embraced bitcoin as legal tender.

In the United States, while there are an abundance of options for investing in the burgeoning asset class, regulators are concerned about everything from stablecoins to yield-generating products.

“With crypto-based activities, it is basically an investment in a prospective future, the shape of which is not clear at this point,” said Menon, who has helmed the MAS for about a decade.

“But not to get into this game, I think risks Singapore being left behind. Getting early into that game means we can have a head start, and better understand its potential benefits as well as its risks.”

The stakes are high for the small island nation, which has already earned a reputation as a global wealth hub. Singapore must raise its safeguards to counter risks including illicit flows, Menon said.

The city state is “interested in developing crypto technology, understanding blockchain, smart contracts and preparing ourselves for a Web 3.0 world,” he said, referring to the third generation of online services, which will be a key theme during the Singapore Fintech Festival that MAS will host next week.

Menon acknowledged that banks and other financial institutions will face certain challenges with the decentralisation of finance. Still, Singapore wants to be “well positioned” for 2030 when “an economy of tokenisation” may come, he said.

Singapore isn’t the only place with crypto ambitions. Locations as diverse as Dubai, Miami, El Salvador, Malta and Zug in Switzerland, are also making efforts.

It can be a fine line to tread, given the crypto industry grew up with few regulations, so many players balk at government officials’ attempts to impose guardrails.

Singapore’s approach has attracted crypto firms from Binance Holdings Ltd, which has had a series of run-ins with regulators around the world, to Gemini, a US operator targeting institutional investors, to set up base.

Some 170 companies applied for a MAS licence, taking the total number of firms seeking to operate under its Payment Services Act to about 400, after the law came into effect in January 2020.

Since then, only three crypto firms have received the much-coveted licences, while two were rejected. About 30 withdrew their application after engaging with the regulator. 

Among those approved is the brokerage arm of DBS Group Holdings Ltd, Singapore’s largest bank, which is also a pioneer in setting up a platform for trading of digital tokens while offering tokenisation services.

The regulator is taking time to assess applicants to ensure that they meet its high requirements, Menon said. The MAS has also boosted resources to cope with high volumes of prospective services operators, he said.

“We don’t need 160 of them to set up shop here. Half of them can do so, but with very high standards, that I think is a better outcome,” he said.

Menon said the benefits of having a well-regulated local crypto industry could also extend beyond the financial sector.

“If and when a crypto economy takes off in a way, we want to be one of the leading players,” he said.

“It could help create jobs, create value-add, and I think more than the financial sector, the other sectors of the economy will potentially gain.” — Bloomberg

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Singapore preparing for digital dollar | The Star

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Friday, October 29, 2021

Malaysia Budget 2022

 


 The theme for Budget 2022 is "Keluarga Malaysia, makmur sejahtera" (Malaysian family, prosperous and peaceful). 

Finance Minister Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz said it is based on three core concepts "rakyat yang sejahtera" (people's wellbeing), resilient businesses and a prosperous economy.

Screengrab from the live broadcast of the Budget 2022 speech from Parliament on Oct 29, 2021.

PETALING JAYA: Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Abdul Aziz has started delivering his Budget 2022 speech in Parliament here on Friday (Oct 29).

The Finance Minister is expected to deliver a Budget in line with the Malaysian Family concept, which will concentrate on the country's recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic.

On Wednesday (Oct 27) Prime Minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob said Budget 2022 was from the people, by the people, for the people and would be of high impact for all layers of society and businesses.

Ismail Sabri said Budget 2022 would also generate more jobs to tackle unemployment and enable the recovery process to return the country and its economy to the pre-Covid-19 pandemic with new norms in place.

He added that Budget 2022 was drawn up carefully and comprehensively, taking into account the views of all quarters, including Opposition parties.

Here are the highlights of the Budget 2022 speech as they are delivered:

Budget 2022 allocation

Budget 2022 has a total allocation of RM332.1bil, the largest-ever for the country. This surpasses Budget 2021 allocation of of RM322.54bil.

Tengku Zafrul said this involves RM233.5bil in administrative expenses, RM75.6bil in development, RM23bil for the Covid-19 fund and RM2bil for unexpected expenses.

Family focus

The Bantuan Keluarga Malaysia outlined in Budget 2022 will benefit over 9.6 million recipients with an allocation of RM8.2bil.

Households with three children or more with household income less than RM2,500 will receive RM2,000 in aid. An extra RM500 will be given to for single mothers/fathers with dependents and monthly income of up to RM5,000. This means single mothers/fathers with three children and above are entitled to a maximum RM2,500 in aid.

An additional allocation of RM300 will be given to senior citizens.

Overall, RM2.4bil in welfare aid is allocated to benefit over 440,000 households.

Education first

Education gets the biggest slice of the pie in Budget 2022 with RM52.6bil for the Education Ministry and RM14.5bil for the Higher Education Ministry.

Tengku Zafrul said this includes RM450mil in aid to be provided to three million students.

Health matters

Health Ministry gets an allocation of 32.4bil, the second-largest after the Education Ministry.

From the allocation, RM2bil will be channeled to purchase of vaccines and RM2bil for additional Covid-19 expenses.

He added that the government would be purchasing another 88 million doses of vaccines, which includes the third dose for children between the ages of 12 and 17.

PTPTN repayment incentives

Government to give discounts to PTPTN borrowers for payments from Nov 1 to April 30.

Borrowers will get a 15% discount for full settlement; 12% for payments of at least 50% of the outstanding balance in a single payment. Those who make repayments through salary deduction or scheduled direct debit will get a 10% discount.

Just for jobs

Allocation of RM4.8bil to create 600,000 job opportunities under the JaminKerja initative.

With a target of 300,000 hires, the initiative will offer incentives to employers such as 20% of the first six months' pay, and 30% of the following six months pay for hired employees making above RM1,500.

Among others, RM1.1bil has been allocated for training and upskilling programmes for 220,000 trainees.

The Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) sector will receive an allocation of RM6.6bil under Budget 2022.

Tengku Zafrul said the focus is on eeting industry needs and an additional allocation of RM200mil has been allocated for joint venture programmes with industries.

Boosting healthy lifestyles

There will be an excise duty imposed on nicotine-based gel or liquid products for vaping and electronic cigarettes, says the Finance Minister.

"Towards a healthy lifestyle the government plans to broaden the scope of excise duty to include premix sugary drinks made from chocolate, malt, coffee and tea," said Tengku Zafrul.

Women matters

The goverment will make it mandatory for all publicly-listed companies to appoint at least one woman to its board of directors.

Tengku Zafrul said RM5mil would also be allocated for the Women Leadership Foundation to encourage female participation in the economic sector.

Free self-hygiene kits will be given to young women in the B40 category monthly, which will benefit some 130,000 youths nationwide.

Tengku Zafrul added that RM11mil would be allocated for free mammogram and cervix examinations.

New villages

A total of RM200mil has been allocated for the Chinese community, among them for the purpose of upgrading Chinese new villages, as well as financing schemes for the small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

RM145mil has been set aside for the Indian community, among them for the implementation of programmes to strengthen the community's social economy through Tekun Nasional, the national Entrepreneurial Group Economic Fund, under the Indian Entrepreneurs Development Scheme.

Levelling up eSports

To push the eSports industry in the country, RM20mill will be allocated under Budget 2022.

This includes RM5mil to develop an excellence centre for drone sports in the country.

Housing for all

RM1.5bil has been allocated for continuing low-cost housing projects. Another RM2bil allocated for housing credit guarantee scheme to help those without a stable income to buy a house.

Tengku Zafrul also said the government would no longer impose the real property gains tax (RPGT) on Malaysians, permanent residents and companies when they dispose of their real property assets from the sixth year onwards.

For sporting excellence

To further improve the national Paralympics team, the National Sports Council (NSC) will receive a RM10mil allocation. This is to enhance training programs and organise leagues for various sports to prepare for the 2024 Paris Paralympics.

RM158mil will be allocated to renovate, enhance and build sporting facilities around the country.

RM50mil will be allocated to encourage people to continue leading an active lifestyle.

Cash in hand

Employees’ contribution rate to the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) that was reduced to 9% in 2020 will remain until June 2022.

Boost for youths

A RM300mil allocation to provide RM150 in credit into eWallets of youth aged 18 to 20 who are students at institutions of higher learning.

Lower vehicular taxes continue

To reduce the cost of vehicle ownership, the government will extend the 100% sales tax exemption on completely knocked down (CKD, locally-assembled) passenger vehicles and 50% on completely built-up (CBU, imported cars) including MPVs and SUVs for six months until June 30, 2022.

The exemption was introduced by the government in 2020 to drive sales in the automotive sector which was affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Defending the nation

The Defence Ministry will get an allocation of RM16bil, of which RM1.6bil is to upgrade the readiness of main assets of the Armed Forces. This allocation also involves RM14mil to replace main equipment of Naval Special Forces (Paskal) and Air Force Special Forces (Paskau) such as parachutes, closed-circuit diving equipment and boats.

e-vehicles to get a power up

Tengku Zafrul said the government sees the potential of electronic vehicles (EV) to minimise pollution, and therefore plans to give up to 100% exemption of import and excise duties as well as sales tax.

Road tax exemptions of up to 100% will also be given out for electronic cars.

Tax relief of up to RM2,500 will be given for the purchase, assembly, renting and leasing of EVs.

Tourism budget

A total of RM1.6bil has been allocated for the tourism industry. RM600mil will be allocated under the Penjana Tourism Financing dan BPMB Rehabilitation Scheme while RM85mil will be go towards a three-month special assistance for over 20,000 tourism operators.

Zafrul also announced matching grants for the purpose of the renovation of budget hotels and homestays, with an allocation of RM30mil.

To spur domestic tourism, the RM1,000 tax rebate will be extended until 2022.

Sabah and Sarawak

The two states will receive increased development allocations of RM5.2bil and RM4.6bil respectively under Budget 2022.

Fisheries and agriculture

RM1.7bil allocated for the various incentives and subsidies for the fisheries and agriculture industries.

Please folllow The Star's coverage of Budget 2022 here.

Click on the logo to see the full text of Tengku Zafrul's Budget 2022 speech in Malay.Click on the logo to see the full text of Tengku Zafrul's Budget 2022 speech in Malay.

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Budget 2022: RM2.4bil in welfare aid allocated to benefit over 440,000 households

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 Here are five key takeaways from Malaysia’s 2022 budget:

5 key takeaways:

1. What’s in it for households, firms hit hard economically by COVID-19?

https://www.bharian.com.my/berita/nasional/2021/10/881438/bajet-2022-bantuan-keluarga-malaysia-bkm-sebanyak-rm2000

Households are set to benefit from a new cash aid scheme - Malaysian Family Assistance. Under the scheme, RM8.2 billion will be allocated to households, benefitting more than 9.6 million recipients, said Mr Tengku Zafrul. 

 Households with three or more children and a monthly income of less than RM2,500 will receive a one-off payment of RM2,000. 

Additionally, single parents or households earning less than RM5,000 each month will receive a one-off payment of RM500. Senior citizens will also receive RM300 each. 

Companies will also receive aid to get back on their feet.

Among others, income tax instalment payment for micro, small- and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) can be deferred for up to six months until Jun 30, 2022. 

Landlords who give rental discounts of at least 30 per cent to businesses will be granted tax relief. 

Firms are also given tax deduction of up to RM300,000 to renovate their spaces, such as to improve seating arrangement or air circulation, in order to minimise the spread of COVID-19. 

2. What additional resources will the health sector get?

The Health Ministry is set to receive RM32.4 billion, the second largest allocation behind the Education Ministry. 

Mr Tengku Zafrul outlined that RM4 billion has been allocated for COVID-19 management, of which RM2 billion is for vaccines and another RM2 billion is to boost the capacity of public health facilities such as by purchasing test kits, personal protective equipment and medication. 

He added that the government has signed agreements to obtain 88 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines, which are sufficient to immunise more than 140 per cent of the population, and enough to give third doses to all residents above the age of 12.

Mr Tengku Zafrul also announced that RM100 million will be allocated to sponsor 3,000 contract medical and dental officers to pursue specialist programmes.

3. What are the green measures?

Meanwhile, Mr Tengku Zafrul said the 2022 budget was formulated while keeping in mind the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (under the the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development) and the implementation of environmentally friendly programmes. 

In line with Malaysia’s commitment to be carbon neutral by 2050, he announced that the Voluntary Carbon Market initiative will be launched under the auspices of Bursa Malaysia. 

“This initiative will act as a voluntary platform for carbon credit trading between green asset owners and any entity towards a shift to low-carbon practices,” said Mr Tengku Zafrul. 

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Tengku Zafrul added that the government is also looking to support the development of the local electric vehicle (EV) industry, and intends to provide full exemption on import duty, excise duty and sales tax for EV vehicles. 

Road tax exemption of up to 100 percent is also given to the vehicles.

In addition, individual income tax relief of up to RM2,500 will be given to offset the costs of purchase and installation, rental and hire purchase as well as subscription fees for EV charging facilities.

4. How will tourism industry players benefit? 

The budget also encompasses initiatives targeted at players in the tourism industry, which have been hit badly by COVID-19. 

Mr Tengku Zafrul said a total of RM1.6 billion will be allocated for a number of efforts, including a RM600 million wage subsidy for tour operators who have experienced at least 30 per cent dip in income. More than 26,000 employers and 330,000 workers are expected to benefit from these subsidies, he added. 

Tengku Zafrul added that matching grants worth RM30 million will be given to more than 700 budget hotels and homestays registered under the Ministry of Tourism, Arts and Culture for repair works. 

He said RM60 million in incentive funds will be allocated for activities to promote domestic tourism. Moreover, special individual income tax relief of up to RM1,000 for residents who spend on domestic tourism will be extended until 2022. 

5. What kind of assistance will be given to women, children?

A key highlight for the 2022 budget is the special assistance given to women and children. 

Mr Tengku Zafrul announced that the government is making it mandatory for all public listed companies to appoint at least one woman to its board of directors in order to recognise women’s roles in the decision-making process. 

“Currently, women hold 25 per cent of the board positions in 100 main public listed companies. 

“However, 27 per cent or 252 companies listed on Bursa Malaysia still do not have women on their boards,” he said. 

The minister added that companies who hire unemployed women, housewives and single mothers will receive government incentives. Putrajaya will pay incentives amounting to 30 per cent of their monthly wages for the first six months, and 40 per cent for the next six months. 

This applies to monthly salaries of RM1,200 and above, the minister said. 

Additionally, the government is looking to allocate an additional RM13 million to the police’s Sexual, Women and Children’s Investigations Division (D11). 

Addressing the issue of orphaned children whose parents succumbed to COVID-19, Mr Tengku Zafrul said that RM25 million will be allocated to Yayasan Keluarga Malaysia to ensure their education, welfare and future.  

“The government urges all parties, including NGOs, local communities, local leaders and even corporate companies to play a role to ensure that the welfare of these children continue to be safeguarded so that everyone can live together as one family without separation and build a bright future,” he said. 

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Islamic affairs continue to get priority from govt | The Star

 

RM1.5 billion for management and development of Islamic ...

 

 

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Sunday, October 3, 2021

Should we be worried about debt?

 According to Bank Negara’s Financial Stability Review report for the first half of 2021, Malaysia’s household debt to GDP has declined to 89.6% from 93.2% as at end of last year. Although a small achievement,the household debt level remains elevated.

With a current debt-to-gdp of about 125%, the US is not the only country with a huge mountain of debts.

IN recent weeks, global markets were roiled by the mere mention of a four-letter word, debt. From China’s Evergrande Group’s near collapse, as it sat on a mountain of liabilities, to the United States government’s need to raise its debt ceiling.

In Malaysia’s case, we too have not much choice either but to raise our debt ceiling as we look at ways to re-generate the economy with a higher debt room of 65% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 60% currently.

It seems like debt has become one dirty word for investors for the time being, as we all know there is a price to pay when it comes to debt as there is no such thing as a free lunch.

For the US, there is no doubt that they have constantly raised their debt ceiling over the years to ensure they do not default on their obligations.

According to the US Treasury website, since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the nation’s debt limit.

Currently suspended, the US debt ceiling was reset on Aug 1, 2021, to US$28.4 trillion (RM118.9 trillion). For the US, failure is not an option as it will lead to a catastrophic chain reaction to not only the financial market but to the economy as a whole.

According to Treasury Secretary and the former Federal Reserve (Fed) chairperson, Janet Yellen, (pic) the US has never defaulted on its debt before and she was “confident” that the issue would be addressed, despite warning the Congress that the deadline for the debt ceiling is “around Oct 18”.According to Treasury Secretary and the former Federal Reserve (Fed) chairperson, Janet Yellen, (pic) the US has never defaulted on its debt before and she was “confident” that the issue would be addressed, despite warning the Congress that the deadline for the debt ceiling is “around Oct 18”.

According to Treasury Secretary and the former Federal Reserve (Fed) chairperson, Janet Yellen, the US has never defaulted on its debt before and she was “confident” that the issue would be addressed, despite warning the Congress that the deadline for the debt ceiling is “around Oct 18”.

For now, while a nine-week stopgap funding bill has been endorsed by the President on Thursday, which in all likelihood will avoid a government shutdown at least up to Dec 3, 2021, the threat of a US defaulting on its debts remains.

While the US is able to continue to print money by simply passing the law to keep borrowing, the US, just like any other country, cannot go on borrowing forever. With a greater supply of money, sooner or later, interest rates will have to rise as the increase in money supply will likely fuel inflation.

After all, the Fed too expects rates to start rising in 2022 and much more in 2023 onwards.

In the last Federal Open Market Committee just over a week ago, the 10-year and 30-year US benchmark rates have already moved 17 basis points (bps) and 21 bps to 1.50% and 2.06% respectively – as the market begins to price in expectations of the Fed’s tapering move as well as worries if there is going to be lengthy impasse between the Democrats and the Republican or grand old party (GOP) to raise the debt ceiling.

Having said that, as the US has been running budget deficits for the longest time, it would not be too far-fetched to assume that given time, the US will need to raise the debt ceiling yet again in the future.

Hence it was also of no surprise when Yellen commented on Thursday that the debt ceiling ought to be permanently abolished.

In any government’s financial management, it’s either shortfall or revenue, mainly due to inadequate tax collections or excessive spending, which are also a function of debt service charges, and to a certain extent, over-priced development spending or operating expenditures.

With a current debt-to-gdp of about 125%, the US is not the only country with a huge mountain of debts.

So is the rest of the world. In fact, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in its Global Debt Monitor report published on Sept 14, 2021, global debt, which includes government, household and corporate, and bank debt increased by US$4.8 trillion (RM20 trillion) to reach a new alltime high of US$296 trillion (RM1.24 quadrillion).

In essence, over the past six quarters, as the pandemic has caused significant damage to the global economy and unprecedented response from governments, total global debt has expanded by US$36 trillion (RM150.7 trillion) or 13.6% from just about US$260 trillion (RM1.09 quadrillion) as at end of 2019.

Money has to go somewhere

When a debt is raised, be it by the government, a company, or a household, it has to go somewhere. For most governments, debts are mainly raised for development expenditure, and if it is allowed by the constitution, on operating expenditure too.

Debts raised due to the pandemic perhaps has become the norm globally as well, as the government has no choice but to raise the required funding to support the economy.

In the US, the Fed also buys US treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities and this effectively makes its way into the financial markets.

So while the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by more than 100% since the pandemic, the liquidity it has provided has caused significant gain not only in traditional asset classes but into everything else. Home prices are rising, commodities have boomed and markets are buoyant and cryptos have soared.

In the case of Evergrande Group, many are left wondering if it was a case of a “too-big-to-fail” company. Evergrande became a property developer largely by borrowing.

As a group, they also ventured into other businesses, which among others include electric vehicles, Internet and media production, theme park, football club, and even into mineral water and food production.

Evergrande’s massive business empire, grown out of debt means, while it has substantial assets, it also had huge liabilities. As Beijing has been strong in putting its house in order in the form of new regulations and guidelines for many industries, Evergrande too was not spared.

As early as August last year, the Chinese government had introduced a “three red lines” test for developers to meet if they wanted to borrow more.

This was firstly, liability to asset ratio of not more than 70%; secondly, net debt to equity ratio of not more than 100%; and thirdly cash to short-term debt ratio of more than 1.0.

Hence, the writings were already on the wall on Chinese developers more than a year ago that the regulators were serious in addressing debt-driven growth pursued by these companies. In Evergrande’s case, the debt hit the ceiling.

Why do we go into debt?

Debts taken by individuals are rather straightforward. Of course, there are good debts and bad debts. For most of us, it is for the purchase of big-ticket items like a roof over the head, and for mobility purposes, where most of us own a car.

Of course, we also indulge ourselves with material stuff, either from our savings or credit cards that we will pay off when the time comes. Some of us, due to lack of income or due to financial mismanagement, take on bad debts and that’s where the trouble starts as we are unaware of the consequences of rising personal debts and high-interest cost.

Stories of debts owed to money lenders are common within our society while Bank Negara statistics also show that one of the fastest-growing debt profiles among individuals is personal loans.

This has remained relatively high and has increased by 87.4% over the last five years alone to about Rm73.7bil as at end of August 2021, while its share of the banking system loans outstanding has increased from 2.7% to as much as 4.0% now. 
 
According to Bank Negara’s Financial Stability Review report for the first half of 2021, Malaysia’s household debt to GDP has declined to 89.6% from 93.2% as at end of last year. Although a small achievement, the household debt level remains elevated. For a company, debts should be part of capital management as companies need to not only sustain their business operations but look at opportunities to grow and expand their market share, either via acquisition or via borrowings. However, similar to what we have seen in Evergrande’s case, companies too must observe their own “three-red-lines” to ensure they have the right mix and remain vigilant of its exposure.

Does Malaysia have the room to borrow more?

For Malaysia, with a higher debt ceiling of 65%, the government is effectively allowing itself to have some headway to borrow an additional Rm75bil to support the recovery momentum that most economists now expect will be much stronger in this fourth quarter period and 2022 and as we prepare ourselves for the post-pandemic period.

While we have created this room to enable us to borrow more, we must be mindful to borrow responsibly as debts that are taken today will be borne by future generations.

We also need to chart our way out of this debt-dependency black hole that we have been in since the Asian Financial Crisis of 1998 and get out of this conundrum.

While debt-to-gdp is just a denominator that is divided by a numerator that is steadily growing, we must find ways to manage our overall federal government debt and plan to reduce them post-pandemic.

That is a whole new topic altogether, and next week, this column will explore strategies that Malaysia can deploy to reduce its debt dependency.

  PANKAJ C. KUMAR Pankaj C Kumar is a long-time investment analyst. The views expressed here are his own.   Source link
 

 US federal debt crisis uglier than Evergrande trouble

 
 
 There is much buzz amongst global investors recently about two possible debt defaults, though they are of different proportions in their would-be impact on global equity markets. One is the US federal government's rivers of borrowed money running dry and in urgent need of replenishing. The other is a major Chinese property developer which has run into financial trouble, because the company veered off the road by squandering too much on making electric cars and sponsoring a football club.

As US federal debt default looms, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is facing her biggest test in her eight-month tenure to convince reluctant Republican lawmakers to agree to raise the US' national debt limit, which is currently set at $28.5 trillion. The stakes are high, because if Yellen's effort fails, the US financial system will collapse.

Yellen has called Republican leaders to convey the economic danger which lays ahead, bluntly warning that the Treasury Department's ability to stave off default is limited, and the failure to lift the debt cap by late October would be "catastrophic" for the country and the world.

Six former US treasury secretaries last week sent a letter to top US lawmakers, warning them a default would roil financial markets and blunt economic growth. According to US media reports, Yellen last week also warned the nation's largest banks and financial institutions about the very real risk of a default. She has spoken to chief executives of JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, BlackRock and Goldman Sachs, briefing them the likely disastrous impact a federal default will produce.

To make things worse, both Democrats and Republicans in the US are at each other's throats now over US President Joe Biden's new $3.5 trillion spending bill, which proposes heavy tax raises on rich families and corporations, and has met fierce opposition from Republican lawmakers. Whether they will compromise on the debt limit, by making a last-minute deal with the White House to reduce Biden's giant spending plan remains to be seen.

Market analysts say if the US government defaults on its colossal debt, a financial system crisis of a magnitude larger than the 2008-09 debacle could occur, which is estimated to lead to an evaporation of $15 trillion in wealth and loss of 6 million jobs in the US. The capital market is now on tenterhooks facing a potential financial time bomb.

Last week, the US' major media outlets also focused their reportage on a possible default of a leading real estate developer in South China, but by all metrics, it is a risk of much smaller scale. The case is being closely watched by China's financial authorities and will never be allowed to develop into a systemic risk.

With regard to the privately-run property developer Evergrande, many fear the knock-on effects of the company's imminent difficulty to pay back principals and interests of borrowed money, including corporate bonds and bank loans. But, even if the city of Shenzhen with its deep pockets, where the company is headquartered, refuses to bail out Evergrande, one bankrupt company can hardly impact the stability of China's financial system, and the risks linked to this possibility have been widely overblown by a hyperventilating media.

Executives at Evergrande are launching a last-ditch rescue effort, trying to sell the company's electric car subsidiary and other assets in China and abroad, including the Guangzhou Evergrande Football Club. It is also selling its housing projects scattered in dozens of Chinese cities at a discount to speed up its cash flow. Whether the company is able to stave off a debt default remains unknown.

Evergrande said on Wednesday that it would make an interest payment on an onshore bonds due Thursday, but the company didn't say whether it had plans to make a $83 million coupon payment due on its US dollar bonds within a month.

The city government of Shenzhen, or the central government in Beijing, has not rushed to bail out Evergande most likely in the belief that the company itself is to blame for the predicament - too much leverage and squandering of borrowed funds ploughed into auto making and other fringe businesses and budgeting largesse. Authorities probably want the case to serve notice to investors at home and abroad, that they need to do their due diligence and enforce accountability on debtors.

However, the central government is almost certain not to tolerate a possible bankruptcy of Evergrande to spill over to draw down the broader Chinese economy, as the central bank has done numerous pressure tests since the 2008 global financial crisis, which was caused by the sub-prime housing debts in the US. Last year, the central bank required property developers to bring down their debt levels below certain thresholds before they are able to borrow more money from financial institutions. And, many Chinese commercial banks have ascertained their exposure to Evergrande is restricted.

So, debt-beleaguered Evergrande is unlikely to produce a firestorm and disrupt China's financial system. In addition, both the government and the central bank have plenty of policy tools, including easing overall monetary policy, to tide over Evergande if it goes under. But of course, the last resort is to bail it out and restructure the company, as China has done with other troubled corporations like HNA, Huarong and Baoshang Bank.

The author is an editor with the Global Times. 
 
 
 
Related:
 
 

  Hopson Development plans to acquire 51% of Evergrande's property management unit Property developer Hopson Development Holding Co is reportedly to acquire about 51 percent of the indebted Evergrande group's property management unit, and the deal could be valued at more than 40 billion HKD ($5.14 billion), according to media 

 

 

 Government to table motion on raising statutory debt limit to 65% of GDP 

 https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2021/09/30/government-to-table-motion-on-raising-statutory-debt-limit-to-65-of-gdp