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Saturday, March 28, 2020

Malaysia's RM250bil Funding the fight against Covid-19, BPN; Penang unveils RM75mil economic stimulus package

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/03/28/no-one-left-behind-says-pm?jwsource=cl

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LET'S GET MOVING

Calling it a stimulus package that cares for the rakyat, the Prime Minister unveils a mammoth RM250bil economic did initiative that targets the B40 and M40 groups. Although the pagekage seeks to provide much-needed funds for all, same industries, such as

No one left behind, says PM


PUTRAJAYA: The RM250bil economic “rakyat-caring” stimulus package – that aims to see no one left behind – is put in place to protect the people, support businesses and strengthen the economy, said Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

The Prime Minister said the package, known as Prihatin will provide immediate assistance to ease the burden of the people.

“Whether you are a fisherman in Kukup, or a smallholder in Jeli, a chalet operator in Cherating, trishaw pedaller in Melaka, a pasar malam trader in Kuala Lumpur or tamu trader in Kundasang.

“All of you will enjoy the benefits of the economic stimulus package that reflects the government’s care for the people.

“As I have mentioned before, no one is left behind,” he said in a televised address to announce the stimulus package.

The package came just days after the government announced several initiatives to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic.

It also comes after the move to extend the movement control order (MCO) period to April 14.

Among others, the latest economic stimulus package will see police, armed forces, immigration, customs, civil defence and Rela personnel being given a monthly allowance of RM200 starting April 1.

For students in institutes of higher learning, a one-off payment of RM200 will be paid to them in May.

For small and medium enterprises, an additional fund of RM4.5bil for five initiatives will be given.

Company owners facing cashflow problems can opt to defer, restructure or reschedule employers contribution to the Employees Provident Fund.

Using the example of Cik Kiah a goreng pisang seller as an analogy, the Prime Minister said her entire family would benefit to the tune of RM7,864.

He said for example, Cik Kiah’s husband is a retired civil servant and is a Grab driver while her child is a PTPTN loan borrower and the household income is RM4,000 a month.

“Cik Kiah’s family will get the national caring aid of RM1,600, remaining payment of BSH which is RM600, aid for pensioners which is RM500 and e-hailing assistance of RM500.

“If Cik Kiah’s husband serves with Rela, he will get RM200 a month until the Covid-19 pandemic is over,” he said.

Muhyiddin pointed out the cash aid to be received by Cik Kiah’s family is at least RM3,400.

The Prime Minister said those renting PPR houses – like Cik Kiah – will get a saving of RM744 as rentals will be exempted for six months.

“She will also be making savings of RM1,800 as car installments have been deferred for six months and savings of RM120 from electricity bills while Cik Kiah’s child has RM1,200 extra due to six months deferment of the PTPTN loan,” he pointed out.

Muhyiddin explained that if Cik Kiah had taken a micro credit loan for her goreng pisang business, she would be saving RM600.

“Makcik Kiah can now smile after listening to the calculations I made,” he said.

The Prime Minister has also given his assurance that projects allocated in Budget 2020 including the East Coast Rail Link, MRT2 and the National Fiberisation and Connectivity Plan will go on as planned, in line with the government’s focus to ensure sustainable economic development.

“The Prihatin economic package is a manifestation of the government’s commitment towards the welfare and well-being of the rakyat.

“The government will make a direct fiscal injection of RM25bil to lessen the burden of the people and businesses that are going through economic challenges,” he said.

The Prime Minister said the government will ensure that its fiscal current account will have a surplus and will not resort to borrowing to finance operating expenditures.

“Almost all of the measures are one-off so that it will not burden the government’s finances in the medium term

“This is important to ensure the country’s fiscal standing and national debts are sustainable,” he said.

Muhyiddin said aside from the two-month pay cut by him, ministers and deputy ministers, ministries have been directed to review their budgets to see where savings can be made so that the money can be used to put in place medium-term measures to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic.

By MAZWIN NIK ANIS

Funding the fight against Covid-19


THE headline figure of RM250bil for the stimulus package was eye-catching but it shows the gravity of the situation faced not only by Malaysia, but also the rest of the world.

The amount of money was staggering, like throughout the world, and needed to ride through the unprecedented circumstances that Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin calls “a war with invisible forces”.

What is visible though is the damage the Covid-19 pandemic is causing. Our streets are empty, people are afraid of sickness and their futures, and that is bringing about huge economic hurt to the country.

The immediate solution was this package, a large sum that aims to soothe the problems faced by individuals, households and companies.

The key thrust of the plan would see RM126bil go towards protecting the people, RM101bil towards supporting business and RM3bil towards boosting the economy. The common thread in the plan is improving cashflow and job preservation.

The B40 and M40 got much of the same in terms of support packages. There were differences such as rental waiver for the B40 who live in federal and state public housing.

The M40 were allowed to make withdrawals from their Private Retirement Scheme to help with their cash needs.

Most of the other measures were common between both groups such as the loan moratorium and also Employees Provident Fund (EPF) withdrawals.

Those measures targeted the most vulnerable segments of society and there is the structure of the plan.

But it also showed that the Federal Government was not stingy, but realistic, in its spending.

The government will have to borrow money through the issuance of debt papers and that will see the fiscal deficit rise beyond 3.2% of GDP this year to between 4%-6.5% of GDP.

The overall cost will see ministries also cut their budgets to generate savings to help fund the fight against Covid-19.

The size of the deficit will depend on what the price of crude oil is. The government realises that it will not average US$62 a barrel forecast in Budget 2020, but it is also hoping for a higher average price for 2020 than what it is today.

The higher price of crude oil will help with the funding cost of helping the economy. The way the government approached this was to share the responsibility between itself and its agencies.

The government will have a direct fiscal injection of RM25bil and the other agencies such as Bank Negara, Danajamin and government-linked companies (GLCs) will share the responsibility of reflating the economy.

For small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and businesses, there were huge sums of money being made available from Bank Negara to RM13.1bil, an increase of RM4bil.

SMEs were given a deferment of income tax for three months, wage subsidies for their workers and flexible employer contributions to EPF – all with the intention of making sure companies continue to employ people.

The government will also use Danajamin to guarantee loans to larger corporations to the tune of RM50bil.

GLCs such as Tenaga Nasional Bhd and Telekom Malaysia Bhd will also do their part in making electricity and Internet broadband charges cheaper.

This may be the route the airlines will take to get help to keep their plans flying once conditions recover.The plan also shows the limitations of a country like Malaysia in dealing with this trident of crises.

The crash in oil prices, evaporation of demand and supply within the economy and the strain on health services is daunting for Malaysia, which does not have the luxury of printing money like the US or some of the large developed countries or blocs in the world.

It is important to keep companies from folding and to speed up efforts to flatten the number of cases. The next priority is to get the supply chain moving again as the longer this goes on, companies will start to look at slashing costs and exporters will start to lose clients to countries that have recovered and operating at a higher capacity.

As the curve flattens and testing increases dramatically, then factories and businesses can start moving again and that will help with the recovery process.

Malaysians have to weather this phase before looking at stabilising the economy and the recovery phase thereafter. This package is the start towards that - By JAGDEV SINGH SIDHU: Analysis

Penang unveils RM75mil Covid-19 economic stimulus package


GEORGE TOWN: Penang has unveiled a RM75mil Covid-19 economic stimulus package which will benefit 410,000 recipients.

Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow announced the package on Wednesday (March 25) and said that it was aimed at the poor and most vulnerable.

He added that this includes hawkers, small businesses, taxi drivers, trishaw riders, e-hailing drivers, the physically challenged and the B40.

"It is an economic aid for the working class to regain their foothold and continue to be self-sufficient and take care of their families and develop the state through their productivity.

"It is a business continuity package to see that the economic development of the state continues after Mar 31," said Chow in a live Facebook message on Wednesday.

The package also gives a one-off payment of RM500 to Covid-19 patients in the state and RM1,000 to the beneficiaries of those who died from the virus.

By R. SEKARAN

Read more:

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Not much benefit seen for SMEs, says association chief 

 


Penang announces additional aid package following MCO ...



Penang rolls out aid under PEKA | New Straits Times ...



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Thursday, March 26, 2020

US is now the new epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic with active cases over 85,505 patients!

https://youtu.be/A8v3GYnlXww

https://youtu.be/llgCCybOZoA

https://youtu.be/p7Pz_Dmxz48

 Coronavirus death toll, infections and recoveries 
WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) -Get the latest information from the World Health Organization about coronavirus.


Donald Trump again struggled to reassure a fearful nation on Thursday as it emerged the US now has the highest number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the world.

News that America had surpassed virus hotspots China and Italy with 82,404 cases of infection, according to a tracker run by Johns Hopkins University, broke as the president was holding a press conference at the White House.

His instinctive response was to question other countries’ statistics. “It’s a tribute to the amount of testing that we’re doing,” Trump told reporters. “We’re doing tremendous testing, and I’m sure you’re not able to tell what China is testing or not testing. I think that’s a little hard.”

Trump later spoke to the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, by telephone and had what he described on Twitter as a “very good conversation”. The two leaders discussed the coronavirus in “great detail”, adding that: “China has been through much & has developed a strong understanding of the Virus. We are working closely together. Much respect.


Read more

Trump administration's scapegoating of China

https://youtu.be/ZYdhqutgp4o

https://youtu.be/InveqFI7fIw

World must build strong solidarity for fighting pandemic: Global Times editorial

So many people can't die in vain, so many companies can't go bankrupt for nothing. The world needs to learn from each failure. Mankind needs to see where we stand, what the risks are, and we must act.

Pompeo's three sins in global virus fight: Global Times editorial

Pompeo and other US elites must be responsible for damaging superpower cooperation if the pandemic worsens, while China cannot join hands with the US due to the war of words. Politicians like Pompeo focus too much on their personal political interests. They will eventually be remembered as negative role models in the history of mankind's battle against COVID-19.

Vaccine pursuer dedicated to finding bio shield against possible germ warfare

On March 16, the novel coronavirus vaccine developed by Chen and her team entered clinical trials. On March 20, 108 volunteers were injected with the COVID-19 vaccine developed by China.

Changing tone key to US-China ties: Global Times editorial

Defeating the coronavirus is the common expectation of all mankind. All countries are called on to join hands in the fight. It's hoped the US government could follow the trend when formulating its policies.

G20 comes to the fore again

There is no substitute for concerted multilateral action. For this, we happen to have an instrument that seems made-to-order for this extreme emergency. The G20 should once again come to the fore and do the needful.

US government's China bashing a cover-up for virus failures



US COVID-19 failure too big to conceal





Tuesday, March 24, 2020

China leads in coronavirus vaccine clinicals to combat Covid-19

The first clinical trial of the novel coronavirus vaccine in China has kicked off as volunteers taking part in the project started to share their experience on social media, a Chinese newspaper reported on Saturday. China Daily/ANN
https://youtu.be/X4d0cmNVAtI?t=9

https://youtu.be/X4d0cmNVAtI

https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/chinas-first-coronavirus-vaccine-approved-for-clinical-trials/

The first clinical trial of the novel coronavirus vaccine in China has kicked off as volunteers taking part in the project started to share their experience on social media, a Chinese newspaper reported on Saturday.

On Thursday, a female volunteer posted two pictures of her taking the vaccine shot as a part of the phase 1 clinical trial for recombinant novel coronavirus vaccine on China’s Twitter-like social media platform Sina Weibo, according to the Science and Technology Daily.

The clinical trial was filed in the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry on March 17.

According to its registration information, the trial is jointly sponsored by the Institute of Biotechnology, Academy of Military Medical Sciences, People’s Liberation Army and CanSino Biologics Inc based in Tianjin.

The trial is being carried out on healthy adults between the ages of 18 and 60 in two medical facilities in Wuhan, Hubei province. The study is set to be completed by Dec 31, according to the registry.

All 108 volunteers are from Wuhan that was hit hard by the outbreak. They will receive a series of follow-up examinations within six months after injection to see if their bodies have generated antibodies to the virus, the registry said,

Wang Junzhi, a senior expert on drug and vaccine development, said earlier this month that China is simultaneously conducting nine vaccine development projects, and most of them are expected to complete preclinical trials and begin human tests in April.

In general, China’s vaccine development against Covid-19 is among the world’s front-runners, he added.

CHINA DAILY/ASIA NEWS NETWORK

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US virus cases to surpass China in April: experts

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China's image will not be dented by lies which will however ultimately hurt Americans. There are three main “China lies” promoted by the Trump administration.


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China must create the miracle of curbing imported cases

This is a war, and a new battle line has been drawn. Prevention of imported cases and resumption of production are two new fronts we must not lose. The future is still complicated and we will continue to face severe tests.

US COVID-19 failure too big to conceal

But no matter how the Trump administration tries to deceive people, their serious dereliction of duty and the consequences are clear and cannot be veneered. There is plenty of evidence showing the US federal government's slowness in dealing with the virus and Trump's downplaying of the epidemic.


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Monday, March 23, 2020

Covid-19, Sri Petaling tabligh is the Epicentre in Malaysia


Covid-19 https://youtu.be/LBDAd1IZrc4

The hosts, the Islamic missionary movement Tablighi Jama’at, which traces its roots back to India a century ago, on Monday suspended missionary activities but did not comment directly on the Malaysian event. - NSTP/ASWADI ALIAS.

 Sri Petaling tabligh the epicentre of Malaysia’s second wave of Covid-19:

WORSHIPPERS slept in packed tents outside the golden-domed mosque, waking before dawn to kneel on rows of prayer mats laid out in its cavernous central hall. All the while, the coronavirus was passing unnoticed among the guests.

The gathering held at the end of last month at the sprawling Sri Petaling mosque complex on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur has emerged as a source of hundreds of new Covid-19 infections spanning South-East Asia.

It was attended by 16,000 people, including 1,500 foreigners.

While more than 10,000 of those who attended the event have been screened, the authorities are still trying to identify another 4,000 attendees, said Health Minister Adham Baba.

Out of Malaysia’s over 1,180 confirmed coronavirus cases as of Saturday, most of them were linked to the four-day meeting, he added. It is not clear who brought the virus there in the first place.

The hosts, the Islamic missionary movement Tablighi Jama’at, on Monday suspended missionary activities but did not comment directly on the event.

Malaysia has shut its borders, restricting internal movement and closing schools, universities and most businesses as it seeks to control the outbreak. All mosques have been closed for two weeks.

“I was actually very surprised that it went ahead,” said Surachet Wae-asae, a former Thai lawmaker who attended the event but has since tested negative for the coronavirus after returning home.

“But in Malaysia, God is very important. The belief is strong.”

The Prime Minister’s Office and the Health Ministry declined to comment further about the event.

The packed gathering, where guests had to take shuttle buses to sleep at other venues, was attended by nationals from dozens of countries, including Canada, Nigeria, India and Australia, according to an attendee list posted on social media. There were also citizens of China and South Korea – two countries with high rates of coronavirus infections.

“We sat close to each other,” a 30-year-old Cambodian man who attended the event told Reuters from a hospital in Cambodia’s Battambang province, where he was being treated after testing positive for Covid-19 recently.

“Holding hands at the religious ceremony was done with people from many countries. When I met people, I held hands, it was normal. I don’t know who I was infected by,” he said, asking not to be named due to fears of discrimination.

None of the event leaders talked about washing hands, the coronavirus or health precautions during the event, but most guests washed their hands regularly, two guests said. Washing hands, among other parts of the body, is part of the wuduk (ablution before prayers).

Another attendee from Cambodia said guests from different countries shared plates when meals were served.

That a large religious pilgrimage went ahead, at a time when the epidemic had killed 2,700 people and was spreading from Italy to Iran, has drawn criticism.

“That Tablighi event in KL ... could also cause a regional spike and it was irresponsible of the authorities to have allowed it to be held,” Singapore diplomat Bilahari Kausikan said on his Facebook page.

At the time of the event, Malaysia was in political turmoil after the power struggle between former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and his successor-inwaiting Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim. The country had a one-man government in the 94-year-old interim prime minister, who had quit and was re-appointed on the same day. His resignation led to the dissolution of the former government.

Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin was sworn in as the new premier on March 1 and banned mass gatherings on March 13. Prior to that, there was only advice from the Health Ministry to minimise public exposure.

Some attendees defended the event, saying that at the time, the situation in Malaysia – which had 25 known cases by Feb 28 – was not yet severe.

“We were not worried then as the Covid-19 situation at the time appeared under control,” said Khuzaifah Kamazlan, a 34-year-old religious teacher based in Kuala Lumpur who attended the event but has tested negative for the coronavirus.

He said some worshippers who attended the event have since refused to be tested.

Karim, a 44-year-old Malaysian who attended the gathering and later tested positive for Covid-19, says the government should have cancelled the event.

“We are disappointed that this outbreak has been blamed on us. That view is unfair.

“There was no ban on our gathering,” said Karim, who gave only his first name.

“Now I am concerned because I am positive. Please pray for me.” — Reuters

How Sri Petaling tabligh became Southeast Asia's Covid-19 hotspot

KUALA LUMPUR: Worshippers slept in packed tents outside the golden-domed mosque, waking before dawn to kneel on rows of prayer mats laid out in its cavernous central hall. All the while, the Covid-19 coronavirus was passing unnoticed among the guests.

The Muslim gathering held at the end of last month at the sprawling Sri Petaling mosque complex here has emerged as a source of hundreds of new coronavirus infections spanning Southeast Asia.

A 34-year-old Malaysian man who attended the event died on Tuesday, Health Minister Datuk Seri Dr Adham Baba said, the first death linked to the Feb 27-March 1 event.

It was attended by 16,000 people, including 1,500 foreigners.

Out of Malaysia’s 673 confirmed coronavirus cases, nearly two-thirds are linked to the four-day meeting, Dr Adham said. It is not clear who brought the virus there in the first place.

Reuters spoke to six attendees and reviewed pictures and posts on social media, and the accounts and evidence showed several ways in which the outbreak could have spread.

The hosts, the Islamic missionary movement Tablighi Jama’at, which traces its roots back to India a century ago, on Monday suspended missionary activities but did not comment directly on the Malaysian event.

Tablighi Jama’at did not respond to a request for further comment. The mosque where the event was held was closed on Tuesday and a guest said he was one of dozens of worshippers still there under quarantine. Calls to the mosque went unanswered.

Malaysia will shut its borders, restrict internal movement and close schools, universities and most businesses, as it seeks to control its coronavirus outbreak. All mosques will be closed for two weeks.

“I was very surprised actually that it went ahead,” said Surachet Wae-asae, a former Thai lawmaker who attended the event but has since tested negative for the coronavirus after returning home.

“But in Malaysia God is very important. The belief is strong.”

The prime minister’s office and the health ministry declined to comment further about the event.

The Muslim gathering held at the end of last month at the sprawling Sri Petaling mosque complex here has emerged as a source of hundreds of new coronavirus infections spanning Southeast Asia. - NSTP pic The Muslim gathering held at the end of last month at the sprawling Sri Petaling mosque complex here has emerged as a source of hundreds of new coronavirus infections spanning Southeast Asia. - NSTP pic

HOLDING HANDS, SHARING PLATES

The packed gathering, where guests had to take shuttle buses to sleep at other venues, was attended by nationals from dozens of countries, including Canada, Nigeria, India and Australia, according to an attendee list posted on social media.

There were also citizens of China and South Korea - two countries with high rates of coronavirus infections.

Social media posts show hundreds of worshippers praying shoulder-to-shoulder inside the mosque, while some guests posted selfies as they shared food.

It was not clear how many guests were residents of Malaysia, but cases linked to the gathering are popping up daily across Southeast Asia.

“We sat close to each other,” a 30-year-old Cambodian man who attended the event told Reuters from a hospital in Cambodia’s Battambang province, where he was being treated after testing positive for the coronavirus on Monday.

“Holding hands at the religious ceremony was done with people of many countries. When I met people, I held hands, it was normal. I don’t know who I was infected by,” he said, asking not to be named due to fears of discrimination at his mosque.

None of the event leaders talked about washing hands, the coronavirus or health precautions during the event, but most guests washed their hands regularly, two guests said. Washing hands among other parts of the body is part of Muslim worship.

Another attendee from Cambodia said guests from different countries shared plates when meals were served.

Only half of the Malaysian participants who attended have come forward for testing, the health minister has said, raising fears that the outbreak from the mosque could be more far-reaching.

Brunei has confirmed 50 cases linked to the mosque gathering, out of a total of 56 cases. Singapore has announced five linked to the event, Cambodia 13 and Thailand at least two.

Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia, which had nearly 700 of its citizens attend, are all investigating.

That a large religious pilgrimage should have gone ahead, at a time when the epidemic had killed 2,700 people and was spreading from Italy to Iran, has drawn criticism.

More than 182,000 people have now been infected by the coronavirus globally and 7,165 have died.


‘IRRESPONSIBLE’

“That Tablighi event in KL (Kuala Lumpur) ... could also cause a regional spike and it was irresponsible for the authorities to have allowed it to be held,” Singapore diplomat Bilahari Kausikan said on his Facebook page.

It is not the only religious event to spread the virus on a mass scale. Thousands of cases in South Korea are linked to services of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in the city of Daegu.

At the time of the event in Malaysia, the country was in political turmoil. The country had a one-man government in the 94-year-old interim prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who had quit and was temporarily re-appointed the same day.

Prime Tan Sri Minister Muhyiddin Yassin was sworn in as the new premier on March 1 and banned mass gatherings on March 13. Prior to that, there was only advice from the health ministry to minimise public exposure.

Some attendees defended the event, saying that at the time the situation in Malaysia - which had announced 25 known cases by Feb 28 - was not severe.

“We were not worried then as the Covid-19 situation at the time appeared under control,” said Khuzaifah Kamazlan, a 34-year-old religious teacher based in Kuala Lumpur who attended the event but has tested negative for the coronavirus.

Khuzaifah said some of the worshippers who attended the event have since refused to be tested for coronavirus, preferring to rely on God to protect them.

Karim, a 44-year-old Malaysian who attended the gathering and later tested positive for coronavirus, says the government should have cancelled the event.

“We are a bit disappointed that this outbreak has been blamed entirely on us. That view is unfair. There was no ban on our gathering,” said Karim, who gave only his first name.

“Now I am concerned because I am positive. Please pray for me.” - REUTERS

Source link

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'Tabligh event attendees 12k, not 16k' | New Straits Times ...

 


Covid-19: Cases up by 212 in biggest daily jump, death toll at 14


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Saturday, March 21, 2020

Meltdown and challenging times and profiting from market downturn

starbiz@thestar.com.my

https://youtu.be/Ue6N787O4SI

IT is trying times for everyone as the global financial world melts down but the order of the day is really to stop the spread of coronavirus (Covid-19) so that some normality could return.

Ironically, two things seem to be rising amid the turmoil – the demand for toilet paper caused serious fights in supermarkets across the globe and this has gone viral across various networks.

The other is the US dollar. Its rise has many reasons.

Everything else, including stock markets, oil, bonds, commodities, currencies and bitcoin are plunging to new lows with no clear signs of immediate reversal. Just in a month the FBM KLCI is down by 20% while the Dow Jones Industrial average 31%.

The rise in demand for toilet paper cannot be comprehended but the rise of the US dollar in a mayhem is understandable. Corporations across the global are rushing to draw down credit lines and seek the US dollar for their funding needs.

In fact, people are scrambling for the US dollar and as a report said “world markets are still very, very nervous ...people are scrambling for cash any way they can.’’

Ringgit against the US dollar has reached the RM4.41 range.

Bonds are also seeing the biggest wave of withdrawals since 2017 and gold has fallen as there are concerns of a global economic recession.

The timing of the Saudi Arabia-russia oil price war was shocking and a report said it is a “risky move likely to further destabilise a world economy that is already wobbly with the pandemic.’’

Oil has plummeted to about US$30 a barrel and experts believe it could plunge to US$20 a barrel though the Us-trump Administration may intervene as US producers are suffering from the historic crash in prices.

Amid all these fears, governments across the globe are coming out with stimulus packages to help its citizens and businesses. It is a much needed aid as many countries have enforced total lockdown and people on daily jobs need money for survival. The US alone is forking out US$1 trillion in aid. Other countries have set aside billions of dollars including Malaysia Rm20bil.

StarBiz compiled by B.K. SIDHU & EUGENE MAHALINGAM

Profiting from market downturn 

Investment strategy: The benefit of dollar-cost averaging is that you don’t have to monitor the price movement and you don’t have to make a decision every time you want to invest. In fact, dollar-cost averaging is quite a no-brainer strategy.

MOST people tend to be very bearish about the stock market after a crash. In fact, most investors would feel that it would be best to avoid the stock market for now.

Some may even want to cut their current investment losses and get out of their investments in equities, even though seasoned investors would tell you that the best opportunity to enter the market would be after a market crash

Following the recent global stock market downturn, market sentiments, the desire and motivation to invest is at an all-time low. Understandably so, after all, once bitten twice shy.

However, the legendary “Oracle of Omaha” and one of the most successful investor of all time, Warren Buffett, once said that as an investor, it is wise to be “fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

It’s hard, if not impossible, to convince oneself to invest when the whole world is panicking.

On one hand, you think the market crash is so sharp that you are fearful it may drop even further. On the other hand, you can clearly see that premium stocks are now trading at a great discount, and hence now would be a great opportunity to snap them up. What should you do?

If this is your dilemma, there’s an investment strategy that can help you to take advantage of the market downturn and allay your fear: the method is called dollar-cost averaging.

How dollar-cost averaging operates

Dollar-cost averaging is a strategy to invest a specific amount of money in the market at routine intervals (monthly, quarterly, half-yearly or yearly). Done right, you can protect yourself against fluctuations and downside risk in the market.

For example, instead of investing a lump sum of, say, RM120,000, you invest RM10,000 a month over one year. By doing this, you average out the cost of investments over an extended period of time. This is to make sure you don’t invest all your money at the peak of the market.

On the other hand, this strategy works especially well in an extended market downturn (like what you expect now) as you will keep buying at lower and lower prices until the market recovers.

For example, you invest RM1,000 in an equity unit trust fund at RM1 per unit. So, you end up with 1,000 units. The following month, you invest another RM1,000 in the same fund but because the unit price has dropped to 50 sen, you end up with 2,000 units.

So, what is the average cost of all your units? If your answer is 75 sen, you’re wrong. That’s because you have used the arithmetic mean (RM1+50sen/2>75 sen). You should use the harmonic mean.

This is how to calculate the average cost of all your units correctly: Your total investment is RM2,000 and you have 3,000 units of the fund. Divide RM2,000 by 3,000 units and the average cost is 67 sen. This means by using harmonic mean calculation, dollar-cost averaging gives a lower average cost.

How it helps you to profit from current market

Now, let’s see how we can apply dollar-cost averaging strategy to the current market scenario. You’re bearish about the market and think it will go down for another six months.

Dollar-cost averaging works well if you believe the market will continue to go down.

With reference to Table 1, if you invest RM1,000 a month for the next 12 months, you would have invested RM12,000 and accumulated 25,648 units at the end of the period. At 80 sen (which is lower than the original price), your investment value at the end of the period is RM20,518 (80 sen x 25,648 units).

It means that you would have gained RM8,518 (RM20,518 – RM12,000). That’s a 71% gain over 12 months, despite the fund price being beaten down by as much as 78% (90 sen – RM0.20 = 70 sen, then divided by 90 sen = 78%).

Why it can help you

Dollar-cost averaging is a discipline that can help investors overcome their emotion, dilemma and other human feeling when it comes to investing, be it fear or greed. We’re always tempted to invest when the market is high and so we end up buying high instead of buying low. With dollar-cost averaging, we’re automatically programmed to buy less units at higher prices and more units at lower prices instead.

Thus when the market crashes and prices are low like now, we would be empowered to invest, not react out of fear.

For this strategy to work, you would need to invest a specific amount of money at specific intervals, say RM10,000 a month over one year, no matter what the market condition is in. If you think that the market may crash and rebound in a shorter period, you may want to implement the strategy within one month. For example, RM30,000 a week over a one-month period. It does not matter which interval, what’s important is that it’s done consistently.

Your current investment strategy to buy only when the price has dropped to a certain “attractive” level is commendable. However, to execute this strategy well, you must be disciplined enough to monitor the market movement closely and spend time and energy to decide when would be the right time to buy the investment.

The benefit of dollar-cost averaging is that you don’t have to monitor the price movement and you don’t have to make a decision every time you want to invest. In fact, if you’d ask me, dollar-cost averaging is quite a no-brainer strategy.

How to make dollar-cost averaging work better

Dollar-cost averaging offers the most benefit when you invest in investments whose prices are highly volatile (move up or down in a big quantum).

An investment that is highly volatile is often perceived as a risky investment. However, this risk plays to your advantage when dollar-cost averaging is applied. How so? The strategy helps to perform an efficient accumulation of investment units. When a particular investment drops significantly in price, you get to accumulate more units. The bigger the drop, the more units you accumulate, thus your accumulation is more efficient (you get to buy the units at a cheaper price).

In comparison, if you invest in an investment that has low volatility, the drop in price would be too small and you can only accumulate a few units, thus rendering your accumulation to be less efficient.

Therefore, when you apply dollar-cost averaging strategy on your unit trust portfolio, go for equity funds. Avoid money market funds or bond funds.

Warning: Don’t apply dollar-cost averaging strategy on a single share. There’s usually an underlying reason why the price of a particular share is in a continuous downward trend. In such circumstances, there’s no assurance that the price will ever go up when the whole market rebound. Worst, the share may not even survive the tough economic crisis and ends up getting delisted.

Do remember that for dollar-cost averaging to work, your chosen investment must be resilient enough to rebound when stock market recovers.

Dollar-cost averaging is best suited if you have a portfolio of equity unit trust funds that is diversified into various regions, so that risks is spread across the share of many companies.

Act on it

To truly benefit from dollar-cost averaging, you have to apply it to your investments. During the implementation process, your resolve would be tested.

There will be times where you will be tempted to abandon the strategy especially when the price of your investment has dropped even further.

Do not waver! Be discipline in executing your strategy and enjoy the gains when the market recovers. Onwards and upwards.

- Yap Ming Hui (ymh@whitman.com.my) is thrilled that his mission to empower every Malaysian with a roadmap to financial freedom has finally come to fruition with the release of a free DIY roadmap to financial freedom tool on the iWealth mobile app. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.

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