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Showing posts with label Cryptocurrencies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cryptocurrencies. Show all posts

Monday, March 7, 2022

TNB mulls legalising Bitcoin mining to prevent illegal electricity tapping

 

In light of the rampant illegal bitcoin mining operations and financial losses from illegal electricity tapping nationwide, Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) is looking at ways to legalise mining operations by imposing special tariffs. - NSTP file pic


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PUTRAJAYA: In light of the rampant illegal bitcoin mining operations and financial losses from illegal electricity tapping nationwide, Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) is looking at ways to legalise mining operations by imposing special tariffs.
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TNB chairman and chief executive officer Datuk Baharin Din said a proposal has been drawn up with special tariff rates for Bitcoin mining and this had been forwarded to the Energy Commission (EC) for approval.
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"We have made a proposal with our recommendations to legalise Bitcoin mining by charging them a special commercial rate but the proposal is still being reviewed by the EC," he said.
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Baharin said they first discovered the electricity tapping for Bitcoin mining in 2018 when at a time there were only 610 cases. 

More News

Cops bust bitcoin mining syndicate, seize 2,137 machines worth RM1.2mil`

"But, last year the numbers jumped to 3,090 premises being used, and the tapping was done haphazardly, with the illegal operations posing a huge risk to the premises as well as others in the vicinity, through electricity sharing.
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"In addition, the (electricity) volume these illegal miners have been tapping was also way too high and detrimental to everyone," he said.
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Baharin said to undertake such tapping exercises, a person must be technically competent because it is a highly risky venture.
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"There are no safety elements included while they tap the electricity illegally for the machines and it can catch fire easily or cause a power outage," he said.
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Baharin was speaking to reporters after sharing the recent success of Op Power, a nationwide joint operation by MACC, police, EC and TNB which managed to cripple 998 illegal Bitcoin mining premises last month.
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Also present at the press conference today were MACC chief commissioner Tan Sri Azam Baki and EC chief executive officer Abdul Razib Dalwood.
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Azam said 18 suspects have been arrested and TNB losses from 2018 until last year are estimated to be RM2.3 billion.
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"The raids were carried out in Perak, Selangor, Pahang, Kedah, Melaka, Johor and Penang whereby 998 premises were found to have tampered to draw electricity (illegally).
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"We also identified 23 suspects paying and accepting bribes to allow these premises to operate but five have not been picked up due to Covid-19," he said.
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He said those arrested were receiving and paying money so that these illegal operations can be carried out.
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"One of the suspects picked up ran 500 premises on his own and on estimation, he pays about RM500 a month for each," he said, adding that the total bribe for the Os Power is estimated to be RM2.37 million.
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Azam said the payments were made either through cash or cryptocurrency monthly to and from these suspects.
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He said MACC has also frozen 126 accounts totalling up to RM4.47 million and seized 1,157 mining machines worth RM2.3 million in last month's nationwide joint operation.
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He said all those arrested will be charged for money laundering under the MACC Anti Money Laundering Act 2001.

 

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How TNB is trying to stop illegal Bitcoin mining - The Edge ...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/how-tnb-trying-stop-illegal-bitcoin-mining


How TNB is trying to stop illegal bitcoin mining | The Star

How TNB is trying to stop illegal bitcoin mining


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Monday, July 26, 2021

Govcoins and crypto to coexist

 



GOVERNMENT-backed coins and private cryptocurrencies will coexist for a while, despite rising regulatory walls set by the government to counter virtual coins, experts at a global webinar session said Thursday.

Noting that cryptocurrencies and digital currencies by governments are “two different animals,” they will coexist for now partly because current cryptocurrencies are not actually solving payment problems.

“How many of them (cryptocurrencies) are solving actual payment problem? Most of them are speculative and used as a means of storage,” said Nelson Chow, chief fintech officer of the Fintech Facilitation Office at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

Chow said that some central bank digital currency, or CBDC, projects such as Multiple CBDC Bridge have the potential to solve decades-old problems for cross-border transactions. Multiple CBDC Bridge is a wholesale CBDC co-creation project between the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Bank of Thailand, the People‘s Bank of China and the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates.

Under the current regulatory environment, John Kiffmeiste, a former senior financial sector expert at the International Monetary Fund, said that it is unlikely that the emergence of CBDC projects, now numbering nearly 60 according to Kiffmeiste’s data, would make crypto assets obsolete.

“CBDC has to operate within confines of tax regulations, anti-money laundering, KYC (know-your-customer) and so many other regulations whereas cryptocurrencies don’t operate in that environment,” the economist added.

Speakers at the webinar co-hosted by The Investor, a tech media outlet run by The Korea Herald, Malaysia’s The Star and the Asia News Network.Speakers at the webinar co-hosted by The Investor, a tech media outlet run by The Korea Herald, Malaysia’s The Star and the Asia News Network.

But, Kiffmeiste pointed out that as the regulatory and legislative walls are closing in on crypto assets, they will come under the same rules that other types of conventional currencies operate under. “In that case, that levels the playing field. Perhaps in that new world, CBDCs and cryptocurrencies coexist, but crypto assets become redundant as at least payment medium.”

Andrew Sheng, one of Asia’s top economists, stressed that authorities should understand the complex contextual backgrounds that have brought about the rising interest in CBDCs and cryptocurrencies.

Noting that the value of the cryptocurrency market has reached US$1.2tril – half the value of the official gold reserves – Sheng said cryptocurrencies had grown outside of the purview of public control. “This was the big lesson of the Covid-19, private cyber currencies will be with us whether you like it or not,” Sheng said.

The tug-of-war between regulators and cryptocurrencies is most apparent in the US in the area of stablecoins like USD Coin, a digital equivalent of the US dollar.

The US-proposed Stable Act will bring USD stablecoin issuers into conventional regulatory perimeters.

Kevin Werbach, a professor of legal studies and business ethics at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, said that the cryptocurrency industry does not have to be allergic to regulations.

“There is always a notion that we have to choose either innovation or regulation. And I think it’s a false dichotomy. For new technological markets to mature and develop, they need to be trusted. They need to get to the point where ordinary people around the world are willing to participate in these activities at scale, and regulations are an important part of that,” Werbach said.

As to the increasing public controls on crypto assets, speakers called for regulations compatible with the emerging cryptocurrency industry. They shared a similar view that cryptocurrency companies and regulators must work together on bringing the industry into the system.

“Since innovation is always ahead of regulation, it is inevitable for regulators to rely on us when drafting policies. It is crucial to reshape their ‘legacy mindset’ and make them understand the nature and dynamics of cryptocurrency,” said Marcus Lim, CEO and co-founder of Zipmex.

They were speaking at a webinar co-hosted by The Investor, a tech media outlet run by The Korea Herald, Malaysia’s The Star and the Asia News Network entitled “The rise of Govcoins & What’s next for crypto”. Speakers at the July 22 virtual seminar included a group of experts in the US, Europe and Asia who are navigating the current situation surrounding the development of central bank digital currencies and challenges posed by and to cryptocurrencies.

Experts said that central bank digital currencies have a huge potential to solve many issues, ranging from decades-old problems involving cross-border transactions to digital transformation.

Kiffmeiste noted that almost 60 jurisdictions are currently exploring retail CBDCs, with countries like the Bahamas and China at the forefront, but they are divided in their motivations for issuing the CBDCs. For instance, emerging economies consider CBDCs as a way to spur financial digitalisation, while advanced economics mull digital currency as part of financial stability and to improve monetary policies. — The Korea Herald/Asia News Network

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Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Webinar: The rise of ‘Govcoins’ and what’s next for crypto

The global financial landscape, especially in Asia, is being redrawn amid digitalisation of the financial sector, propelled by both the regulators and fintech innovators

ONCE viewed with suspicion, digital currencies have gained wider acceptance since the Covid-19 pandemic started.

` The recognition has sparked not only various investment opportunities but also technological innovations and developments, including by governments around the world eager to capitalise on the digital currency potential.

` One is China, where its central bank People’s Bank of China has just launched pilot projects on digital currency and is working with the Bank of Thailand and Hong Kong Monetary Authority on the initiative.

` The global hype in cryptocurrency investment, meanwhile, has come under restraint from the regulators but with the pandemic – a number of Asian companies have embraced the crypto innovation in hope of riding out of the economic slump. Investors especially the Gen Z have jumped on the bandwagon despite the risk and pushed the value of Bitcoin to a new high.

` To help people understand the government-backed digital currencies and the future of cryptocurrencies further, The Star will co-host a webinar entitled “The rise of Govcoins & What’s next for crypto” this Thursday, July 22, 2021, at 10am.

` The webinar is organised jointly with the Asia News Network (ANN), an alliance of 23 national media in 20 Asian countries, and The Investor, which is a tech media start-up of the The Korea Herald. Both The Korea Herald and The Star are members of ANN.

The webinar is organised jointly with the Asia News Network (ANN), an alliance of 23 national media in 20 Asian countries

` The speakers on the first session “The rise of Govcoins” include John Kiff, former senior financial sector expert at the International Monetary Fund; Nelson Chow, chief fintech officer at the Hong Kong Monetary Authority; and Andrew Sheng, one of Malaysia’s and Asia’s top economists, and The Star’s columnist.

` The second session “What’s next for crypto” will feature speakers Kevin Werbach, professor of Legal Studies & Business Ethics at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; Stephane De Baets, president of Elevated Returns Ltd, an investment firm based in the US with Asian focus; Marcus Lim, group CEO, Zipmex Co, a regional cryptocurrency platform; and Pindar Wong, a blockchain specialist and chairman of VeriFi, a financial tech consultancy in Hong Kong. The speakers will discuss the decentralisation of finance, benefits and dangers of cryptocurrency, a shake-up which is taking place to weed out illegal financial transactions and the development of AI and programmable smart money.

Registration is available at https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/4916263173191/WN_LaWquMD2ROaxPkccdsC4Qg

You can also listen live on Clubhouse at https://www.clubhouse.com/event/M8ZWK53b

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 A staffer displays the digital yuan application scenarios to visitors in the World Intelligence Congress in Tianjin in May. Photo: cnsphoto

 

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Sunday, March 21, 2021

Bitcoins, Cryptocurrencies under fire

 

Bitcoins


 India and China come down hard due to concerns of financial market stability, illegal fundraising

N THE latest twist involving the world of cryptocurrencies, India’s government plans to impose a massive ban on the asset class.

Reports have indicated that the Indian government plans to pass a bill that would ban just about every activity involving cryptocurrencies, including the possession, issuance, mining, trading and the transferring of crypto-assets.

Once passed, this would make it one of the world’s strictest policies on cryptocurrencies. Government officials have said that the move is because they believe cryptocurrencies threaten the stability of financial markets, tend to fund unlawful activities and even resemble ponzi schemes.

The move by the Indian government falls in line with the school of thought that cryptocurrencies could increasingly suffer bans by governments around the world.

In India’s case, the move comes after an earlier ban two years ago. But last year, the courts in India overturned the decision, citing the ban as “disproportionate” after cryptocurrency exchanges filed a lawsuit against the central bank’s ban.

The strong stance against cryptocurrencies has also been shown by China’s government. More than three years ago, China was the first country to ban initial coin offerings (ICOs), calling it “illegal fundraising”.

Since then, the Chinese government has accelerated efforts to clamp down all businesses involved in cryptocurrency operations, including bitcoin miners.

China’s government says its stance is based on investor protection, money laundering concerns and the unnecessary consumption of energy due to crypto mining activities.

Last month alone, there were plans to ban new cryptocurrency mining projects and shut down existing ones in China’s Inner Mongolia region.

As one financial analyst puts it, “the problem with cryptocurrencies is that while it thrives to work in an unregulated world, it is bound to come under the scrutiny and regulation of governments, which are mostly afraid of its misuse and potential negative impact to financial markets. Perhaps somewhere in the future, a balance will be struck but that is anyone’s guess”.

While governments have a tendency to ban cryptocurrencies, many are embracing blockchain technology with the intention of issuing state-backed digital currencies.

This is essentially an electronic version of notes or coins which would replace physical cash entirely and dubbed central bank digital currencies or CBDC.

China is one of the leading countries for this and has already passed a law to legalise its own official digital currency. Similarly, India is an example of another country that is considering having its own digital currency. Interestingly, India’s move to pass the bill to ban cryptocurrencies comes soon after the mother of all cryptos, namely, bitcoin has hit its all-time high past US$60,000 (RM246,449) for the first time earlier this week.

The world’s biggest currency rally was driven by speculative demand, increased adoption by firms and institutional investors that see bitcoin as a store of value. Last month, Tesla bought over a billion dollars worth of bitcoins.

The electric car maker said it plans to accept the digital coin as payment for its products. Mastercard has also said it would also soon accept bitcoin as a form of payment.

Asset manager BlackRock and payment companies Paypal and Square have also recently backed cryptocurrencies.

Back home, the question remains whether the government, central bank or the Securities Commission (SC) would take a stronger stance against cryptocurrencies.

Malaysia’s regulators have held the view that digital assets are not legal tender and have warned investors to be cautious when dealing with cryptocurrencies.

SC chairman Datuk Syed Zaid Albar tells StarBizWeek that “investors must understand that unregulated, offshore investments are not protected under Malaysian securities law”.

“The SC has put in place a regulatory framework for such new emerging investment channels to provide certainty to issuers and investors who are keen to explore these new instruments.

“For example, our regulatory framework has tried to address issues such as putting investors’ money in trust accounts, accurate disclosures, cooling-off periods and conflict of interest situations are also regulated, ” Syed Zaid explains.

The country’s central bank, Bank Negara, also echoes a similar view, explaining that digital assets lack the characteristics of money and suffer from several limitations such as price volatility and risks of cyber threats.

“Digital asset activities are also subject to anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing regulations administered by the respective authorities, ” the central bank reported in its annual report in 2019.

Malaysia is also one of the countries studying the feasibility of issuing its own digital currency. “The bank is no exception, and we continue to engage closely in discussions surrounding CBDC with other central banks, ” it said.

More collaborations among central banks around the world are taking place to study the impact of a digital currency for financial stability and the monetary policy of a country.

Why does Bitcoin use 10 times more electricity than google...

Google’s entire operation consumed 12.2 TWh in 2019 and all the datacentres in the world, excluding those that mine Bitcoin, jointly consume around 200 TWh annually. — Reuters

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Thursday, March 29, 2018

BLOCKCHAIN beyond Bitcoin


Blockchain is beginning to enter the spotlight as organisations see uses for it over and above the cryptocurrency Bitcoin. From combating fake degrees to being able to track the origin of organic products, blockchain is proving to be a reliable solution in trust.

The underlying technology that powers cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and ethereum is blockchain.

Creating trust in transactions Varanasi: Blockchain can be used to store verified documents so that users don’t have to keep validating important documents every time it’s submitted to a new party.

While blockchain was confined to finanin cial tech the early days, many organisations are starting to employ it in other industries because the technology is highly secure and even allows for transparency.

This encourages trust and in some cases even eliminates the need for a third party to validate the data, making it valuable to many organisations.

WITH fake doctorates and degrees becoming increasingly common, how are employers and graduates to find an efficient way to bridge the gap in trust?

According to Dr Mohamed Ariff Ameedeen, from University Malaysia Pahang (UMP), the solution could lie with blockchain technology.

As director of IBM’s Centre of excellence, which has been based in the university since 2012, he is continuously exploring novel uses for blockchain beyond cryptocurrency.

he said one of the early ideas the team was working on was a secure database that would prevent students from hacking to change their grades.

however, his team then decided to solve a more pressing issue affecting universities – fake degrees.

Mohamed Ariff said some universities are already integrating QR codes into graduates’ certificates to help validate credentials. however, even QR codes are now easily tampered with.

Taking it one step further, the UMP team created a system called Valid8, a QR code linked to a student profile secured by blockchain, which contains the student’s name, photo, title of degree and the year it was awarded.

This made tampering with the QR code pointless, as it only acted as a key to the information on the blockchain.

“even if someone used another person’s QR code, the data would clearly show it was not the person’s name or photo connected to the certificate,” he said.

he added that all the info placed on the blockchain is already publicly available so it would not compromise the students’ privacy.

Mohamed Ariff said making the data trustworthy meant time savings – as employers don’t have to contact the university to verify the certificate, they can be quicker in deciding if they should hire the job applicant.

So far, UMP has run a pilot programme with Valid8 by issuing supplementary certificates to 180 graduates from the industrial Management Faculty.

Mohamed Ariff said it took a couple of days to configure the blockchain node and a few more days to input the 180 students’ data.

“Although entering the information is relatively straightforward, migrating 15 years of old data (of earlier graduates) that includes more than just the initial four data points is going to take a bit longer,” he said.

The full-scale test for Valid8 will be the students graduating at the year-end convocation, estimated to be around 2,000.

To make the student profiles more useful, Mohamed Ariff said the team is planning to add more information such as grades, attendance, courses and maybe even disciplinary records.

“The beauty of blockchain is that it can grow with time and track a student’s academic life. imagine how much data it would have if a profile was set up for students when they entered kindergarten,” he said.

To encourage such a situation, UMP is open to collaborating with other universities that wanted to adopt blockchain for student iDs.

however, eduValue founder Barry Ew Yong warned that even a secured system has an obvious point of failure – human error.

he added that once errors entered the system there is a chance that it will be perpetuated. “Technology does not increase trust. Systems increase trust, though technology can be a useful tool to do so,” he said.

Like with UMP’s Valid8, the quality assurance startup has adopted blockchain to secure graduate certificates, using the technology to store a softcopy of the degree.

The company serves around 30 private schools, mostly tertiary schools offering up to Masters. Founded in Singapore in December 2012, it only just started employing blockchain.

he said the company uses a two stage system to ensure that only qualified students would be given certificates.

in the first stage it will help set up the standard by which students will be evaluated in order for them to graduate, and the approval process will be audited – schools found lacking will be struck off the system.

in the second stage it will vet all data being uploaded to the platform.

For UMP this is just a start – it’s also testing a blockchain based e-wallet called Xchain that students, lecturers, staff and vendors would eventually use for all transactions in UMP.

Beyond the security benefits, Mohamed Ariff said the open-nature of blockchain’s shared ledger meant the spending patterns could be analysed, making the university a giant data pool.

“With a population of 13,000 users, there’s a lot of potential data. And as a university, we love data,” he said.

Xchain is still in beta as the team is waiting to get Bank Negara to issue it an e-wallet license.

Mohamed Ariff concluded that blockchain is promising, especially for the education field, which relies on data that is open to peer review while also being trustworthy and tamper-evident.

ACADEMICIAN hu Dong, who advises Shanghai Jiaotong University’s Zero Bay incubator, said the supply chain industry could see huge advantages by having a more efficient and transparent data manto agement system.

Blockchain can be used track a product’s origin and determine if the materials were sourced as claimed, which is invaluable to sectors such as organic farming and ethical diamond mining. Also, by tracking the product’s trail along each stop on the supply chain, should an issue arise that requires a product to be recalled, the company could zero in on where the fault occurred.

For example, if a company found that the computer it’s making has a faulty hard drive, it would be able to identify which one of its factories was responsible. it then only needs to recall the computers that originated from the affected factory instead of all its products.

This would save cost as the recall will be smaller

and speed up the process which could help limit damage to the company’s reputation.

Dong, who was in Malaysia for a conference by blockchain incubator WeMerge, said the highlight of blockchain is accountability and transparency so it would create a higher degree of trust, which makes it great for smart contracts.

A smart contract can digitally facilitate, verify, or enforce the performance of a contract without the need for third parties. And if executed via blockchain, the transactions are trackable and irreversible.

He said smart contracts could ensure factories, for instance, get paid faster, as the payment can be released once the contract is verified through the blockchain instead of waiting for a third-party to process it.

Startup Eximchain, which has raised US$20mil (rM78.41mil) in funding to continue developing blockchain solutions, is offering Smart Contracts.

Its solution allows banks to verify the validity of orders and provide the necessary financing; and the transaction history can be used by suppliers to prove their reliability to buyers and rating institutions. For banker turned blockchain technologist Bobby Varanasi, limiting the technology’s application to Bitcoin is just shortsighted.

The co-founder of Thynkblynk Technologies, along with partner Parag Jain, have developed ChainTrail, a “trust platform” for storing verified documents, including education certificates, medical records and contracts.

By using ChainTrail, you don’t have to keep verifying a document each time it’s presented to a new party.

However, Varanasi said the company was not in the business of certification and that the onus was on the data provider, be it a university or bank, to ensure that the data is correct.

“A lie, once committed to blockchain, would become an immutable one,” said Jain, referring to how data can only be added but not modified on a blockchain.

To mitigate such risks, ChainTrail vets customers by validating their credentials and ensuring that they are authorised to represent stakeholders.

For instance, it would verify that a lecturer is from the university he or she claims to represent.

It also offers templates for agreements such as contracts and term sheets.

“In today’s world, lack of trust is increasingly permeating the world of trade, both politically and financially... blockchain as a tech has finally presented an opportunity to create trust amongst a variety of parties that transact with each other,” said Varanasi.

Chain of trust:


Built for cryptocurrency Bitcoin, blockchain is being used in innovative ways in a number of industries.

 

Basics of blockchain


LIKE a lot of complex technologies, blockchain is easier to understand once you break it down.

A blockchain is made up of a block of “transaction data” which is why it’s also called a ledger. Each block also has a hash – a string of numbers which uniquely identifies the block.

And similar to how a person has their parent’s names added to theirs, a block features a portion of the preceding block’s hash.

Put in terms of family lines, it’s like how you could tell that Amir bin Ali is the son of Ali bin Abu, who is in turn the son of Abu bin Bakar, and so on.

Basically, the hash “chains” the blocks together, by affirming their place in relation to the blocks before and after, hence the term blockchain.

Security in numbers

A key feature of blockchain is security. Blockchain runs on the paraphrased adage that you can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all the people all the time.

So rather than making it tamper-proof, blockchain is tamper-evident – this is done by making a copy of the blockchain available to all members of the network, which is why blockchain is sometimes referred to as a public ledger.

As members of the network all have a copy of the same blockchain, if anyone’s chain is compromised by a hacker, it would look different from others.

If you have ever tried to organise a movie night with an extended group of friends on a WhatsApp group, you’ll get the idea.

Say, you want to watch Marvel’s Avengers: Infinity War and get the ball rolling by choosing the day and cinema, and then ask whoever that’s interested to add their names to the list.

The original message can’t be altered as it has been sent to the group. Instead everyone adds to the data by including their names and maybe a request for a specific timeslot. This concept is called “persistence”, wherein the older data cannot be retroactively altered.

Though a cheeky friend could change the date to try to troll the group, he wouldn’t be able to hide the fact that earlier messages will show a different date. This is what makes a public ledger like the blockchain tamper-evident.

Blockchain transaction


The blockchain is stored on computers, also known as nodes, that are connected via a peer-to-peer network.


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Sunday, February 11, 2018

Bitcoin: Utter pipedream

No intrinsic value: Unlike enterprises, bitcoin has no business, no intrinsic value, no cash flows and no balance sheet. — AFP

I JUST returned from a meeting of the Asian Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee in Bangkok.

The group comprises Asian academic experts on economics and finance. Their role is to monitor the state of the world economy and the workings of its financial markets in the light of existing and prospective policies; and draw lessons and give advice on vital public policy issues of current interest to regulators and market practitioners to make the world a better place.

The group comprises 23 professors from 14 countries, coming from a diverse group of universities and think-tanks, including the universities of Sydney and Monash, and of Fudan, Hong Kong and Sun-Yat-Sen in China, Universitas Indonesia, universities of Tokyo and Hitotsubashi, Yonsei and Korea universities, Sunway University, Massey University in New Zealand, University of the Philippines, Singapore Management University, National Taiwan University, Chulalongkorn University and NIDA Business School, University of Hawaii and University of California at Davis, University of Vietnam, and Tilburg University in the Netherlands.

They examined key issues surrounding the theme: “Cryptocurrencies: Quo Vadis?” focusing on the role and activities of the flavour of the month, bitcoin. At the end of it all, they issued the following statement:

“Cryptocurrencies in general, and bitcoin, in particular, have been receiving considerable press of late, driven mainly by wide swings in value in the cryptocurrency exchanges. There are now in excess of 2,500 products considered to be cryptocurrencies and in the last three weeks alone their combined market value has plummeted from US$830bil to US$545bil as of today, of which US$215bil is attributed to bitcoin and bitcoin cash.

To keep this in perspective, however, Apple Inc has a market value of US$880bil as of today. Market value measures the equity value of a business – or what investors are willing to pay for its future profits. Unlike enterprises, however, bitcoin has no business, no intrinsic value, no cash flows, no profit and loss statement, and no balance sheet. It is a speculative instrument.

Cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, are not considered currency today because they are not a universal means of payment, nor a stable store of value, nor a reliable unit of account. Buyers purchase on the basis that these cryptocurrencies would rise in value. While market value has been the main focus of the current interest, the more important issues are around the role of cryptocurrencies both as financial assets, and the role they can play in transaction settlements, and their implications, if any, on financial stability.

While there is much interest in cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, the volume of transactions remains very small currently. For example, total US dollars (cash) in circulation amount to US$1.6 trillion as of today. M3 (broad money) is valued by the Federal Reserve at US$14 trillion. Total US economy assets in 2016 were valued at US$220 trillion. So why the fascination with cryptocurrencies? Supporters of Bitcoin claim it to be a superior store of value to fiat money issued by central banks because its supply is limited by design and therefore cannot be debased. In addition, the technology behind bitcoin, called the Blockchain, provides anonymity to its players. That is why it is a favourite with money launderers, tax evaders, terrorists, drug smuggler, hackers, and anyone who wants to evade the rule of law. Many people who use cryptocurrencies assert that they pay minimal transaction costs mainly because it avoids the cost of financial intermediation.

Still, there is large potential for capital gains because of the wide volatility of its price movement. This is the main driving force behind the popularity of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. However, there are high risks involved including extreme volatility and opaque, unregulated exchanges that are prone to cyberattacks.

Authorities and regulators worry about bitcoin because they fear it is a bubble. In the event of a bust, investors in bitcoin – they are many, spread over various continents and countries – will be hurt; and they exert pressure on governments to regulate this business in order to protect investors.

In addition, they worry about the impact – in the event that cryptocurrency trading becomes a significant element in maintaining financial stability – in terms of the impact on the transmission of monetary policy and on its effects on the banking system, and most of all, on systemic risk, if any.

Authorities have responded in different way. In South Korea, new regulations today require banks and exchanges to identify who their customers are, imposing greater transparency in the conduct of the cryptocurrency business. On the other hand, Japanese authorities are more liberal. They only require the registration of companies engaged in this business at this time.

Many other authorities, including those in the US, are adopting a wait-and-see attitude while studying the issues, recognising that there may be a role for them to introduce some regulatory measures in the event that the volume and price volatility of cryptocurrency transactions become more and more significant.

In the meantime, government and tax authorities feel uneasy about the impact on revenue collection. Other regulators are worried about crowdfunding through ICOs (initial coin offers). Authorities in a number of countries, including the US, have introduced measures to regulate the issue of new ICOs to ensure that investors are provided with the necessary information before making such investments.

At the same time, central banks in many countries are looking into the desirability and possibility of issuing their own digital currencies, including to counter privately-issued cryptocurrencies.

Recommendations:

1. Bitcoin came into prominence because of an apparent lack of confidence in fiat currency. It is imperative that governments and central banks continue to give priority to (i) protecting the integrity of their currencies; (ii) designing policies to contain inflation to prevent it from debasing the currency; and (iii) strengthening their mandate to promote financial stability over financial development, if needed (including ensure fintech development does not undermine confidence). Also, in cases where authorities do not have the power to regulate the cryptocurrency business, they should actively seek such authority where appropriate.

2. Monetary authorities should be open to creating digital currencies rather than confining their money supply to notes, coins and deposits. But they should do so in a transparent manner and only after careful consultation and study.

3. It is the role of government to warn their citizens and investors about the high risk involved, and ensure transparency in bitcoin activity, and not to unduly introduce more and more regulations that will stifle innovative initiatives. Blockchain technology, for example, does have other useful applications apart from the issue of its use in the creation of digital currency.

Investor protection


As we see today, bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies are not currencies. Mostly, they reflect speculative activity. Hence, investing and transacting in them involve high risks. It is imperative that investors realise this and approach investing in cryptocurrencies with great caution and with as much information as is available to help them manage these risks.

Investors must fully understand that cryptocurrency prices need not necessarily always rise, particularly because they have no intrinsic value, they could just as easily fall. So investors beware: Caveat emptor.”

Update

The following developments are noteworthy:

> Columbia’s Prof N. Roubini (Dr Doom) claims bitcoin is not a currency. Few price anything in bitcoin. Not many retailers accept it (even bitcoin conferences don’t accept it as payment). And it’s a poor store of value because its price can fluctuate 20%-30% a day. Worse, he labelled it “the mother of all bubbles” because its claim of a steady-state supply is “fraudulent”.
It has already created thee similar currencies: Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Bitcoin Gold. Together with the hundreds of such other currencies invented daily, this creation of money supply is debasing the currency at a much faster pace than any major central banks ever did. Furthermore, bitcoin’s claimed advantage is also its Achilles’s heel – for, even if it actually did have a steady supply of 21 million units, it is not a viable currency because the supply won’t track potential nominal GDP growth; hence, prices will become deflationary – the kind of phenomenon that economist Irving Fisher believed caused the Great Depression.

Indeed, the head of the European Central Bank had since declared to the European Parliament that cryptocurrencies are unregulated and “very risky assets. Their price is entirely speculative”. That’s not what we want or need. It’s a pity the FOMO (fear of missing out) of many retail investors will end them in a wild goose ride!

> Over its nine-year history, bitcoin has had five-peak-to-trough falls of more than 70% each. The recent decline offers a dose of reality to new investors – bitcoin dropped to a low US$7,850 on Feb 2 for the first time since November 2017 – crashing 60% from the high of nearly US$20,000 in mid-December. Sentiment has shifted dramatically this year.

On Feb 5, it fell another 4% to US$7,524. Also, the fledging market has taken a number of blows: Facebook has since banned advertisements on it (for being misleading); US Securities and Exchange Commission has accused some latest ICOs as “outright scams”; US and UK largest banks have put up “road-blocks” to financing bitcoins; and the recent Japanese hack theft of 523 million crypto-XEM (worth US$500mil) brought back memories of Mt Gox, which collapsed after a similar hack in 2014.

> Arbitrage traders (buying where it’s cheap and reselling where it is dear) have been active – taking advantage of price differentials in multiple places and different times. They call it “capturing the arb”. Hedge funds, high frequency traders and even amateur enthusiasts are giving it a shot. Price divergences can be due to glitches or network traffic jams. In South Korea, exchanges quote abnormally wide prices reflecting high investors’ demand for bitcoin in the face of strict capital controls – giving rise to a “Kimchi premium” (of as high as 50% above US price; now down to 5% as price disparities are swiftly traded away).

> Concern over cryptocurrency activity is spreading beyond China, Japan, South Korea and India. This prompted the governor of the Bank of England, who also chairs the Global Financial Stability Board, to voice his unease over the anonymity embedded in blockchain technology underlying their use, especially for illicit activity (including money laundering). He disclosed that it would be on the agenda at the next G20 meeting. Tax authorities have also expressed concern over the under-reporting of capital gains tax.

> Bitcoin futures trading on Chicago’s CME and CBoE exchanges have been slow to catch fire – at the pace of a “slow walk”.

What then, are we to do

Reality check: Bitcoin is proving that cryptocurrencies can erase wealth as fast as they create it. In January 2018 alone, it wiped off US$45bil from its US$200bil in market value generated in all of 2017 – the biggest one-month loss in US dollar terms in its short history. Since then, more value is being lost. For most economists and finance experts, they don’t represent an investable asset – there are liquidity issues, safety issues, exchange issues; most of all, they have no intrinsic value.

Can’t realistically put a fix on their fair value. They are for speculators who are prepared to lose everything. Of course, its something else for those who use them for illicit activity (home to criminals and terrorists), including money laundering. Anonymity means you are potentially closing a chain, while at somewhere along it had some illicit activity that cannot see the light of day.

Fair enough, these concern regulators. But we shouldn’t lose sight of the huge range of opportunities presented by the underlying technology – a view shared by many in relation to raising the efficiency of payment systems. Regulators are right to want to regulate crypto but also, continue to encourage innovation on blockchain. As I see it, so far in 2018, bitcoin has been a total dud. The list of factors driving its decline is growing, especially rising regulatory clampdown occurring around the world.

So, the cryptocurrency market has fallen on tougher times. For sure, Bitcoin has been highly profitable for many investors. Indeed, there continues to be strong interest among millennials.

Bottom line: the year so far has been terrible for bitcoin. But the fundamental positive story for crypto appears to remain intact. Protecting consumers should make it harder for charlatans to sell digital dust. There is a point where it goes from “buying on the dip” to “catching a falling knife”. Only time will tell. So, beware!

NB: Following global regulatory crackdown, bitcoin’s price has on Feb 6 fallen to a low of US$5,947, wiping out over US$200bil so far this year. Bitcoin’s market cap is now US$109bil, about one-third of the total crypto market (that’s down from 85% this time last year). The Bank for International Settlements (banker to central banks) has now condemned bitcoin as “a combination of a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster” (refers to huge amounts of electricity used to create it) and warns it can even become a “threat to financial stability”.


By Lin See-yan - what are we to do?

Former banker Tan Sri Lin See-Yan is the author of The Global Economy in Turbulent Times (Wiley, 2015) and Turbulence in Trying Times (Pearson, 2017). Feedback is most welcome.



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